Joe Mixon: The Only Workhorse Available in the 2nd Round

Photo: USA Today Sports

Click here for other Player Spotlights

A Lost 2020 and a Volatile Career

After four years in the league and back-to-back RB1 seasons with 1,100-plus rushing yards, Joe Mixon is still one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football. He spent most of the 2020 season nursing a mysterious foot injury and played in just six total games. Although he finished as the RB9 in points per game, 41.4% of his points came from a single game -- a Week 4 win over the lowly Jaguars. Through the first half of 2019, Mixon was the No. 31 running back in PPR formats. Over the second half of the season, he was the No. 4 behind Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and Derrick Henry. What does this all tell us? Mainly, that Mixon’s production is sporadic and unpredictable.

Mixon has the measurables and draft capital that get fantasy players excited. But he’s on a pass-first team that has won just 12 games over the last three years, finishing last in their division in each season. However, they landed 2020’s unanimous top prospect in Joe Burrow, a quarterback with the talent to turn the franchise around. Unfortunately, Burrow suffered a gruesome season-ending injury in Week 11, and his outlook for 2021 is still unclear. But Mixon is cleared for a full workload, and long-time No. 2 Giovani Bernard is gone, meaning Mixon should see massive usage. Whether you're a Mixon fan or not, we can agree he's a difficult player to project. He ranks as high as RB7 and as low as RB16 among our staff rankings, and realistically his range of outcomes is broader than that.

Fantasy managers are notoriously emotional decision-makers. We also suffer from recency bias more often than we would like to admit. Those two factors make Joe Mixon one of the best values in 2021 fantasy football drafts.

His injury in 2020 allows you to buy low in 2021

Mixon burned a lot of people last year, and the wounds are still fresh. But he should have one of the heaviest workloads in football this season. Still just 24 years old and on a $48-million contract, head coach Zac Taylor needs Mixon as the centerpiece of an offense full of young, compelling weapons.

After a relatively quiet rookie season (2017) where Mixon started less than half of his games and had just 626 rushing yards, he emerged as a force in 2018. He carried the ball 237 times for 1,168 yards. He followed that season up with 278 carries (fifth-most in NFL) for 1,137 yards.

Since the start of 2018, Mixon is averaging 17.6 carries per game, fifth-most in the league behind just Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, Josh Jacobs, and Dalvin Cook.

Before his injury last season, Mixon averaged 20.2 carries per game, which would come out to 232 carries on the year. By comparison, only one player -- Derrick Henry -- has more than 232 carries last season.

While carries are great, Cook and Elliott are the only players in that group with significant roles as pass catchers. Since PPR scoring has taken over as the new standard, doesn’t that limit Mixon’s ceiling?

Mixon has averaged just 3.2 targets per game over his career, but he’s shown an upward trajectory and is essentially a lock to have his best year as a receiver in 2021. Before his foot injury in 2020, he averaged a career-best 4.3 targets per game -- 15th best among running backs. For perspective, only four running backs (Alvin Kamara, J.D. McKissic, Austin Ekeler, and Christian McCaffrey) saw more than five targets per game. He improved week to week as he and Burrow built rapport.

Target Count, by Game (2020)

• Week 1 -- 2 targets
• Week 2 -- 4
• Week 3 -- 3
• Week 4 -- 6
• Week 5 -- 8

Mixon is a “lock” to improve his target share due to the departure of passing-catching specialist Giovani Bernard. Bernard was a frustrating thorn in Mixon's side over the last few years, averaging 3.4 targets per game since 2018. If we assume that just half of those targets go Mixon’s way in 2021 along with the 4.3 targets per game he saw last year, that puts him over six targets per game! Looking at recent history, 6.0 targets per game would likely be top-five overall among running backs. Outside of Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey, no back has a better shot of finishing in the Top 5 in both carries and targets.

So why is he getting drafted in the second round on fantasy football drafts?

Mixon has been referred to as the Tyler Lockett of running backs due to his unpredictable and inconsistent nature. Heading into Week 6 last year (his final game of the season), Mixon was the No. 10 fantasy back.

2020 Fantasy Rankings, RB, (Weeks 1-5, PPR Scoring)

However, 42.1 of his 86.6 points came from a single game with 25 carries for 151 rushing yards and two touchdowns and six receptions for 30 yards and another touchdown. Outside of that, Mixon’s four other weeks were underwhelming. He averaged 19 carries, 55.8 rushing yards, 3.3 receptions, and 20.8 receiving yards while failing to score. That averages out to 10.95 points per game, which would have been the RB30 last season. It’s a tiny sample size, and he didn’t score once during those games. But if we add his career average of 0.5 touchdowns per game, the implied 13.95 fantasy points per game would have ranked RB17. In redraft leagues, opportunity often outweighs talent and gives running backs a safe floor. Mixon will see enough volume to have the floor of a mid-range No. 2 fantasy back to go along with a top-tier ceiling.

But what about his talent?

At 6-foot-1 and 228 pounds, Mixon is prototypically sized for a three-down role. He ran a blazing 4.45-second 40-yard dash at his pro day and was taken as the fourth running back off the board in 2017 behind just Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, and Dalvin Cook. On talent alone, Mixon was considered at or near the top of the prospects but fell a bit because of some off-field issues at Oklahoma. In his breakout 2018 campaign, he averaged 4.9 yards-per-carry, which was fourth-highest among backs with 200+ carries. Since then, his efficiency has dropped. In 2019, he averaged 4.1 yards-per-carry. And in 2020, he averaged just 3.6 yards per rush. While the trend is disconcerting, it’s easy to blame last year’s average on small sample size. He was held to less than three yards-per-carry in four of his six games. Those games were Bengals' losses against stout defenses: Browns, Eagles, Ravens, and Colts. In the two favorable matchups -- the Jaguars and Chargers -- he averaged 5.0 yards-per-carry.

Stats and Projections

Our staff consensus projects Mixon for 301 carries, 1,241 rushing yards, 8.9 touchdowns, 52 receptions, 396 receiving yards, and 2.1 receiving scores. Every member of the Footballguys projections team expects a career year receiving.

Final Thoughts

If healthy, Mixon is going to touch the ball a lot. Perhaps as much as anyone in the NFL. While the Bengals were on a torrid pace throwing the ball last year before Joe Burrow's injury, the coaches understand the need for balance so opposing defenses can't sit back in nickel and dime formations all game. With Giovani Bernard gone, Mixon will be on the field in all downs and distances. Samaje Perine is a capable backup but no threat for split touches. Trayveon Williams remains buried on the depth chart. The Bengals committed $48 million to Mixon, and it’s crazy to think that they won't utilize the 24-year-old as a cornerstone of the offense. With Joe Burrow healthy, and his college teammate Ja'Marr Chase joining the roster, expect the passing game to be hard to stop. The trio of Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd may be the AFC's best. They'll ensure plenty of running room for Mixon and also free up the swing and underneath routes that Mixon can dominate as a receiver. Even without Chase in the lineup last year, Mixon saw six or fewer defenders in the box on 59.7% of his carries, the seventh-best rate in the league. His combination of opportunity and talent makes him a great target in fantasy football drafts this season. His disappointing 2020 campaign opens up a chance to buy low. Mixon has the safest floor and highest ceiling of any running back with a second-round ADP.

Follow @DaveKluge