Irv Smith's Breakout Chances Are a Coin Toss

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Irv Smith – A Good, Not Great, Bargain Bet

There are two definitive approaches for addressing the tight end position. One, prioritize the shortlist of elite playmakers early in the draft, starting with Travis Kelce, and ending with either T.J. Hockenson or Kyle Pitts, depending on your belief in the Falcons’ rookie. Two, let a dozen or so tight ends come off the draft board and draft a breakout or two late, hoping your research led you to this year’s bargain.

Irv Smith is squarely in the mix for the second strategy – bargain hunting. He’s currently the 12th tight end off the board, on average, in 12-team drafts. The Vikings tight end steps into his third NFL season with an opportunity to be the full-time starter after playing a backup role to Kyle Rudolph for two years.

The breakout opportunity is legitimate, but it’s not without risk. The odds of his becoming a difference-maker are not much better than a coin toss, and it’s essential to factor that into the price you’re willing to pay on draft day.

Reasons for Optimism

1. Kyle Rudolph is gone
2. Smith has enticing traits
3. We saw top-12 potential last year for a stretch
4. The Vikings lack depth at wide receiver

Kyle Rudolph’s Departure

The front office cut Rudolph after ten seasons, driven in equal parts by salary cap considerations and declining production. The two-time Pro Bowler ends his Minnesota tenure with 453 receptions, 4,488 yards, and 48 touchdowns.

Enticing Traits

Smith is small for a tight end – 6-foot-2, 242 pounds – but offsets bulk for speed and agility. His 4.6-second 40-yard dash is among the fastest at the position over the last five seasons, and he has above-average hands and balance. Footballguys’ own Matt Waldman had this to say about Smith in his 2019 Rookie Scouting Portfolio:

Smith’s size, speed, skill after the catch, and versatility in the run game are reminiscent of Delanie Walker, who is also a skilled stalk blocker and cuts off defenders well in the run game as a smaller tight end with good strength. Smith will thrive as part of an intermediate passing game who can extend plays even longer when targeted against zone coverage in the middle of the field. He’ll hold up better than expected as a front-side blocker despite lacking prototypical size.

Top-12 Production with Rudolph out of the Lineup

Rudolph missed the final month of the 2020 season, and Smith’s production took an encouraging turn higher.

16-Game Pro-Rata Production, Irv Smith, 2020

If Smith can maintain that productivity over an entire season, he’s more than worth the draft day investment.

Lack of Receiver Depth

Minnesota hit the lottery a year ago with Justin Jefferson. The rookie played at an All Pro level, putting him in rarified air historically. His emergence allows Adam Thielen to shift into the No. 2 role, despite acquitting himself well as the team’s top receiver in prior seasons. Not many NFL teams have a better 1-2 punch. But that’s where the enthusiasm ends. Olabisi Johnson, Chad Beebe, Dan Chisena, K.J. Osborn, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette have a combined 71 receptions and five touchdowns in seven combined seasons. The Vikings can, and will, run plenty of 12-personnel given the lack of complementary wide receivers on the roster.

Reasons to Pump the Brakes

1. A new, unproven play-caller
2. A run-heavy scheme
3. The Tyler Conklin conundrum

Unproven Play-Caller

Gary Kubiak hadn’t called plays in the NFL since 2016 but resumed play-calling responsibilities last year after Kevin Stefanski left for the Cleveland Browns. The team finished 11th in points scored and 4th in yards under the veteran’s watch. But health concerns led Kubiak to retire (again), and the team handed the baton to Klint Kubiak – Gary’s son. This will be the younger Kubiak’s first time calling plays, and it’s unclear whether he’ll have the same aptitude as dear old dad.

Run-Heavy Scheme

Head coach Mike Zimmer is a defensive-minded coach and keeps a lid on the pass-run mix regardless of who calls the plays. In seven seasons as head coach, the Vikings have used five play-callers (Klint Kubiak will be the sixth) and ranked 21st in passing attempts (525 attempts), on average.

The Conklin Conundrum

We’ve already pointed out how well Irv Smith played in the final month without Kyle Rudolph. But there’s another young tight end on the roster who showed well in December. Tyler Conklin barely played in his first 2.5 seasons but matched Smith catch-for-catch over the final month of 2020.

16-Game Pro-Rata Production, December 2020

Given Conklin’s lack of pedigree, it’s hard to look at Smith’s late-season heroics in the same light. What if the team plans on playing both in a committee role? When asked about Smith’s potential to break out in 2021, coach Zimmer chose instead to shower Conklin with praise:

“I think it’s a bigger role for Tyler Conklin,” Zimmer said. “He’s kind of emerged as a guy that’s moving upward, and with those two guys, we have a lot of weapons there. Irv always has been able to do what he’s been able to do whether Kyle was here or not. Obviously, Kyle’s a great kid and we miss him, but we’re excited about these two young tight ends that we have.”

STATS AND PROJECTIONS

FINAL THOUGHTS

The tight end position is full of land mines after the select few elite players are off the board. While it's great to land Travis Kelce or Darren Waller, most of us won't be in that position. It's important to understand that more than half of every fantasy league will end up rolling the dice on a high-risk tight end. That's the nature of the position, given the weekly volatility and low target volume. In that vein, Irv Smith is a perfectly reasonable breakout candidate. He fits the bill. He's young, talented, and should see an increased role with Kyle Rudolph gone. But he's by no means a guarantee. Don't confuse Smith's situation with that of, say, T.J. Hockenson a year ago. Smith inherits a "starting" role, but his snap count probably won't increase much. Teammate Tyler Conklin matched Smith's output down the stretch a year ago, and Coach Zimmer specifically called out Conklin for an increased role, not Smith. If you wait at tight end on draft day, it's essential to WAIT. Don't be the person racing to draft from the first salvo of risky prospects because they rank 7th on consensus rankings lists. That's where you get the busts. Smith's current ADP (TE12) is low enough to take a shot. He's a coin toss, but so is everyone else in that range.

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at wood@footballguys.com.

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