Why Jalen Hurts So Good

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Hurts So Good?

A year ago, when the Philadelphia Eagles selected Jalen Hurts in the second round of the draft, most viewed it as a strategic investment in depth. Carson Wentz was in the early part of a massive, long-term contract. General manager Howie Roseman had promised Philadelphia would become a “quarterback factory” to develop talented signal-callers behind Wentz, who could eventually move them to other teams for draft picks and players in return.

But the best-laid plans of Eagles and men often go awry, and now Jalen Hurts enters the 2021 season as the starter. But should fantasy managers follow the Eagles' lead and draft Hurts as their starter? The short answer is – Yes. But the longer answer is, only if you recognize he’s the riskiest bet among consensus QB1s and requires you to have a strong contingency plan on draft day.

Baptism by Fire

Carson Wentz’s colossal implosion forced Hurts into the starting role, and whether you consider his debut successful depends on expectations. As a fantasy performer, Hurts was stellar, thanks in part to a Lamar Jackson-esque rushing output. As a professional quarterback, it was less convincing as the team finished 1-3 in his four starters, and the offense scored 20 points per game. Hurts completed less than 52% of his passes and looked uncertain and erratic in his passing progressions at times.

Hurts’ 2020 Per-Game Average (4 Starts)

• 17.3 completions
• 33.3 attempts
• 51.9% completion rate
• 229.8 passing yards
• 1.3 passing touchdowns
• 0.8 interceptions
• 11.5 rushing attempts
• 68.0 rushing yards
• 0.8 rushing touchdowns

Can a quarterback learn accuracy in the NFL?

For much of our lives, conventional wisdom questioned whether accuracy is teachable. Scouts believed an inaccurate passer in college – where the opposing competition is easier and the system more conducive to easy completions – would never become accurate in the NFL. But, as is often the case, conventional wisdom can be wrong.

Take a look at all rookie quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts in the last 25 years (1996-2020), and you’ll see some surprising things.

• 97 quarterbacks qualified
• Michael Vick ranked 96th (44.2%) – He went on to four Pro Bowl appearances and six top-12 fantasy finishes
• Eli Manning ranked 91st (48.2%) – Manning won two Super Bowls, made four Pro Bowls, and has seven top-12 fantasy finishes
• Matthew Stafford ranked 71st (53.3%) – Six top-12 fantasy finishes and still playing
• Andrew Luck ranked 63rd (54.1%) – Four Pro Bowls in seven seasons, five top-10 fantasy finishes, including four top-5 seasons
• Peyton Manning ranked 50th (56.7%) – Arguably the best passer in NFL history

Yes, these are cherry-picked players and by no means predictive of the broader sample, but they’re important reminders of how a poor completion rate in Year 1 doesn’t portend a disappointing career, necessarily.

The Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson Blueprint

Had Jalen Hurts come out of college a decade ago, he would’ve had a much harder path to starting. But the NFL adapts when presented with overwhelming evidence, and Hurts’ fate has undoubtedly benefited from coming out a few years after Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Both players were first-round draft picks, but neither was considered a pro-style passer. Their rookie seasons did little to assuage those fears. But both enjoyed a monstrous improvement in Years 2 and 3.

Lamar Jackson

Josh Allen

Allen and Jackson both managed to maintain elite rushing output while also becoming efficient, high-scoring passers.

Expecting Improvement

Forecasting is an inexact science, but there are plenty of reasons for optimism.

1. Hurts got the jitters out of the way last year
2. He’ll have the benefit of a full preseason and training camp as the starter
3. New head coach Nick Sirianni is a promising, young, innovative offensive mind
4. The offensive line – in shambles in 2020 – is much improved
5. DeVonta Smith gives the team a legitimate No. 1 receiver
6. Players rarely peak in Year 1, and there’s a natural progression to an NFL career arc

The Overpowered Nature of Rushing Stats

Let’s say you’ve read this far and still aren’t willing to bet on Hurts becoming a better passer. Should you avoid Hurts altogether?

NO. In fact, Jalen Hurts is worth drafting if you assume he’s precisely the same quarterback he was in 2020.

Here are Hurts’ rookie numbers, pro-rated over a 16-game season. [Note: We’re using 16 games for historical-comparative purposes, even though 2021 will be a 17-game season].

Hurts’ rookie numbers project to 432.6 fantasy points in a 16-game season. That would make him one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in each of the last five seasons.

Year-End QB Ranking (432.6 fantasy points)

• 2016 – QB2
• 2017 – QB1
• 2018 – QB2
• 2019 – QB2
• 2020 – QB4

Immense Upside, but the Bust Risk is Tangible

Hurts has No. 1 upside, even if he doesn’t improve significantly as a passer. But it’s equally important to recognize his bust potential. No other quarterback in the top-12 ADP has as much downside. He could end up on fantasy waivers by mid-season if things go the wrong way.

1. Nick Sirianni could be a terrible play-caller
2. The offensive line changes may not matter if Andre Dillard doesn’t live up to his draft pedigree
3. Hurts’ inaccuracy could be systemic; he may not be good at reading complex NFL defenses
4. DeVonta Smith (170 pounds) could be overpowered
5. Jalen Reagor might not be a late bloomer and just be a bust
6. Hurts’ propensity to run could get him hurt
7. The Eagles aren’t committed to Hurts beyond 2021 – they have amassed draft picks to have their choice of elite rookies next April if they choose

Prioritize Your QB2 to Mitigate the Bust Potential

The easiest way to deal with Hurts’ bust potential is to draft against it. Plan to draft your No. 2 quarterback earlier than your league mates so that you’ll have a viable high-end starter if Hurts falls short of expectations. Pairing Hurts with the likes of Joe Burrow (QB13), Trevor Lawrence (QB14), Matt Ryan (QB15), Kirk Cousins (QB16), or Baker Mayfield (QB17) makes sense.

STATS AND PROJECTIONS

FINAL THOUGHTS

If you want Jalen Hurts on your fantasy roster, it's going to cost you a top-10 pick, based on current ADP. No other quarterback in the Top 12 (i.e., the QB1s in a 12-team league) has as much downside. The Eagles have positioned Hurts for a one-year tryout. If he struggles, they won't hesitate to move on mid-season for an unexciting but steady hand in Joe Flacco, with an eye toward using their considerable draft capital next April to try and find another franchise player. And we only have a month of rookie starts to base our analysis. Those four games were stellar from a fantasy lens, but they left much to be desired if you're an NFL head coach. But here's the great news. Hurts' current cost assumes he'll regress considerably as a runner. If Hurts plays all season in exactly the same manner he did last year, he would finish as a top-5 quarterback without question. Yet, there are quite a few reasons to expect improvement as a thrower. He has better weapons. He has a new, innovative coaching staff. The offensive line is healthier. He gets a full offseason and preseason to prepare with the starters. And we've seen recent examples of similar players -- Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson -- evolve from rookies who were only valuable because of their legs to league MVPs capable of throwing for 30+ touchdowns. The sky is the limit for Hurts, but so too is the downside. As long as you commit to drafting a second quarterback earlier than your league mates, so you have a safety net in hand, Hurts is one of the most enticing players at the position.

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at wood@footballguys.com.

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