Ezekiel Elliott is at a Crossroads

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Ezekiel Elliott's career is off to a historic start; he has five top-12 finishes to begin his career. While he maintained his top-12 streak in 2020, it’s fair to call the season a disappointment nonetheless. Elliott set career lows in rushing yards (979) and yards per attempt (4.0) and tied for the fewest rushing touchdowns of his career (6). But there are reasons for optimism, and the smart play is betting on a return to first-round caliber production. Last offseason, Elliott got COVID-19 and wasn’t in optimal condition to start the year. Now healthy, he’ll also benefit from Dak Prescott's return and a much-improved offensive line.

Elliott's Background

Ezekiel Elliott was the fourth pick in the 2016 NFL Draft out of Ohio State. In an era of running back committees, the Cowboys have relied upon Elliott as their main workhorse and centerpiece of a balanced offense. And he's more than lived up to his pedigree. Since his entry into the NFL, Elliott has averaged 283 carries, 1,277 yards, and 9.2 rushing touchdowns per season and averaged 4.5 yards-per-carry.

Elliott has led the league in per-game rushing in three of five seasons and leads the league with 6,385 rushing yards over the last five years. But he's not a one-dimensional player and has been adept as a receiver, too. He's averaged 48.2 receptions, 391.2 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns per season. 35% of Elliott's fantasy production has come as a receiver.

A Disappointing 2020 Season

Last season Elliott only scored 8.9 fantasy points per game on the ground and 6.5 points as a receiver. He combined near career-low rushing attempts (244) with a career-low 4.0 yards-per-carry average, a full half a yard-per-carry drop from 2019 levels. Elliott's 2020 season saw both a near career-low in rushing attempts combined with 4.0 yards-per-carry -- the worst in his career -- and a 0.5 yards-per-carry drop from 2019. His per-attempt drop is likely to be scrutinized and criticized, but don’t overstate it as a warning sign.

The reason for the drop in yards per attempt is likely two-fold. First, Elliott's situation was worse than in prior years. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he ranked 42nd in expected yards per attempt (3.93) in 2020 – a noticeable drop from prior seasons:

• 2018 – 4.17 expected yards per attempt (29th amongst qualifiers)
• 2019 – 4.09 expected yards per attempt (26th amongst qualifiers)
• 2020 – 3.93 expected yards per attempt (42nd amongst qualifiers)

Second, while the situation was worse, Elliott's performance was also worse than the prior two years. In 2020, Elliott produced a mere 0.07 yards-per-carry above expectation, 38th amongst qualifiers.

• 2018 – 0.53 yards over expectation per attempt (17th amongst qualifiers)
• 2019 – 0.41 yards over expectation per attempt (18th amongst qualifiers)
• 2020 – 0.07 yards over expectation per attempt (38th amongst qualifiers)

The decline in expectations is largely out of Elliott's control and can rebound in 2021 with improved offensive line play. The rushing-yards-over-expectation is something Elliott has direct control over, and it starts with re-committing to training and mental preparedness.

Goal-Line Productivity

Elliott’s production at the goal line (defined as inside the 5-yard line) must improve. Although he led the league with 26 goal-line attempts, he only scored five times. His 19% conversion rate is well below his career mark (35%):

• 2016 – 7 touchdowns on 13 carries (54%)
• 2017 – 4 touchdowns on 12 carries (33%)
• 2018 – 2 touchdowns on 11 carries (18%)
• 2019 – 10 touchdowns on 18 carries (56%)
• 2020 – 5 touchdowns on 26 carries (19%)
• Career – 28 touchdowns on 80 carries (35%)

Tony Pollard's Involvement

Tony Pollard's role increased in 2020, and it had a direct impact on Elliott's volume. Elliott’s snap share was 69% during the 2020 season, which was down from prior seasons:

• 2016 – 67% offensive snaps (15 games)
• 2017 – 55% offensive snaps (10 games)
• 2018 – 83% offensive snaps (15 games)
• 2019 – 84% offensive snaps (16 games)
• 2020 – 69% offensive snaps (15 games)

But the lower snap share, by itself, shouldn't be a concern considering Elliott ranked 2nd and 9th in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Plenty of Reasons to Expect a Rebound

Last year was the anomaly, not a start of a disturbing trend. Just about everything that could go wrong last year did go wrong.

• He won't be recovering from COVID-19
• He won't be without star quarterback Dak Prescott for the majority of the season
• He won't be playing behind a makeshift offensive line this year

We can't overstate the importance of Dallas's offensive line woes in 2020. Footballguys offensive-line guru Matt Bitonti had this to say:

The starters missed most of last year. But with left tackle Tyron Smith, right guard Zack Martin and right tackle La'el Collins all returning to full strength, this group has the potential for a real comeback. Left guard Connor Williams does a decent but unspectacular job. Center Tyler Biadasz is still growing into his role. Assuming the veterans can stay healthy, this line grades within the Top 10 of the rankings.

Our consensus projections forecast Elliott to score 285 fantasy points (PPR) which would be a top-five performance. Notable among our projections is a consensus 4.3 yards-per-attempt, which falls between his career average (4.5) and his 2020 production (4.0).

Elliott is not without risk heading into 2021, but almost every top-10 running back carries a quantifiable downside. Dalvin Cook has multiple season-ending injuries dating back to college. Saquon Barkley is coming off multiple ligament tears. Alvin Kamara has to play without Drew Brees keeping opposing defenses honest. Christian McCaffrey is coming back from a missed season. If those situations don't warrant a draft-day discount, why does Elliott's RB11 finish amidst a near worst-case scenario give fantasy managers pause? Overall, Elliott’s volume provides a high floor, and if the aforementioned supporting factors normalize, he can easily return to top-five value.