Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the "why" more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterbacks
Parsons
Tom Brady - The dynasty market has generally been behind on Brady since his arrival in Tampa Bay. With no physical erosion signs, Brady is surrounded by arguably (and maybe not even arguably) the best collection of skill-position weapons in the NFL. Brady is inside the top-3 of the position in scoring through two weeks with little reason to see a change for the rest of the season. Even one more elite season is worth more than many of those younger quarterbacks' total impact they will have over the next 3-5 seasons.
Baker Mayfield - The Browns are a good NFL story, one of the better teams, a contender in the AFC, etc. However, fantasy-wise Mayfield's so-called rise has been overstated from last year to this season-to-date. Mayfield does not offer much on the rushing side, which means he needs to be a diabolical passer to challenge in the top groupings in fantasy. Odell Beckham is still working back from an injury, and Jarvis Landry is now on the shelf. This is from a team whose DNA is a running offense. Color me skeptical Mayfield ever gets all the way home to where the general dynasty community values him.
Bischoff
Taylor Heinicke – Heinicke stepped into an enormous opportunity when starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was injured in Week 1. Fitzpatrick is out for at least two months, and Heinicke will get every chance to prove he is capable of producing for the Washington offense. Heinicke looked impressive coming off the bench in Week 1, and he put together an excellent showing last week, throwing for 336 yards and two scores in a win over the New York Giants. He has looked the part to this point, has quality weapons, and sometimes all a player needs to succeed is the kind of opportunity Heinicke has in front of him.
Sam Darnold – Darnold got a much-needed change of scenery when the Carolina Panthers acquired him from the New York Jets before the 2021 NFL draft. Darnold went from a nightmarish scenario in New York with little help around him (from players to coaching) to a highly desirable situation with the Panthers as they surrounded him with playmakers. He has looked very sharp through two games and is a quarterback who can outperform expectations and be a reliable fantasy option.
McNamara
Trevor Lawrence - Lawrence never deserved to be the first-round Superflex startup pick that he was this offseason. Through two games he has been a major disappointment, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt, with five interceptions with only four touchdowns. He has a long road ahead to rebound, but this experience should be a cautionary tale about taking rookie quarterbacks as early as Lawrence was taken in future years.
Daniel Jones - Jones was at a fork in the road entering this season, with year three a critical turning point. The early results have been encouraging, with Jones is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt and 2.9 percent over his expected completion percentage. Despite only two passing touchdowns, Jones is in the top 10 of quarterback scores, in no small part because of his rushing (61 yards per game with a touchdown per game). While his rushing production is likely to recede, Jones has plenty of passing upside because he should see some positive touchdown luck based on his underlying efficiency stats. He could be a riser, because the market may be looking “to sell high” while not appreciating this is actually a sign of growth instead of a hot streak to sell.
Running Back
Bischoff
Michael Carter – Carter is a talented runner, and he is on the move in a positive direction this week. Carter was undoubtedly on the radar screen, but he was getting squeezed for playing time, and he was not much of a factor in Week 1, getting only five carries. Carter led the Jets in Week 2 with 11 carries for 59 yards, and he turned three targets into two catches catching two passes for 29 yards. Carter is easily the most talented running back playing for the Jets, and if he can command a reasonable workload, he will be a valuable piece throughout 2021 and beyond.
Javonte Williams – Williams makes defenders miss, bouncing through tackles to generate yards after contact because he has incredible balance and power. While I fully expected Williams to win the Broncos running back job at some point this season, I did not necessarily think we would see signs of it as early as last week. He and running back Melvin Gordon each saw 13 carries in Week 2, and that has Williams’ arrow pointing in the right direction.
Kenneth Gainwell – Gainwell was an electric receiving option coming out of the backfield entering the NFL, and he ended up in a good spot with the Eagles. Miles Sanders is on solid ground as the starter, and most thought Gainwell would slot in behind backup back Boston Scott. However, Gainwell looks to have taken the backup job from Scott and is even taking snaps from Sanders in the red zone. Gainwell would be a beautiful addition to a dynasty roster right now.
McNamara
TySon Williams - Williams has been the beneficiary of injuries to J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill. With the injuries, Williams has taken advantage, by leading the league in yards over expectation (2.03). Williams is in a timeshare with Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman while LeVeon Bell is still on the practice squad. Williams has the ability to be a difference-maker in a strong rushing offense, but his 2022 outlook is murky with both Dobbins and Edwards expected back. Still, with the chance to produce this year, Williams should be an attractive flex play for contending teams.
James Robinson - Robinson had the opportunity to take a stranglehold of the Jacksonville backfield after Travis Etienne’s injury. Instead, Robinson fell behind (5 carries) Carlos Hyde in week one (9 carries), before leading Jacksonville in carries in week two (11 to 2), albeit in a disappointing offense. Robinson can accumulate stats throughout the rest of the season but may struggle to be a difference-maker in fantasy, with Etienne’s return looming over his 2022 prognosis.
Damien Harris - Harris has consolidated the RB1 position in the Patriots offense. Harris has 39 carries in the first two weeks, with his primary competition for carries Rhamondre Stevenson inactive in week two. While there has been a limited redzone offense, Harris has seen 6 of the 9 red zone carries for the Patriots, tied for the 11th percentage in the league. Harris has the opportunity to continue in a twenty touch per game type role this season, without a clear threat to his job outside of an injury.
Parsons
Melvin Gordon - The writing was on the wall in the offseason Gordon would be an early-season-centric play more than over the entire season. However, I see the expiration date to Gordon for lineup confidence sooner than the midseason projection with Javonte Williams breathing down his neck for more work. Gordon has been fortunate through two games with a long run in the closing minutes of Week 1 and breaking a chunk reception in Week 2 to save fantasy performances. Williams offers power and after-contact ability Gordon, at this point in his career, cannot touch. I expect Gordon to become less of a lineup play in the coming weeks and at 28 years old, points to dynasty doom for his valuation.
Kenyan Drake - Drake staying in his role of a receiving-centric running back while Peyton Barber soaks up the traditional work in Josh Jacobs' absence is telling for Drake's utility. The perfect storm of Jacobs inactive did not even make Drake more than an iffy flex decision for lineups. Drake cannot even be considered a true injury-away option with this iteration of the Raiders.
Malcolm Brown - Thought to be challenging for the RB1 job in Miami, Brown has clearly been RB3 through two weeks of the season. Brown has been utilized late in games or in short-yardage situations and Miami has a systematic upside question on offense with Jacoby Brissett and even if Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. As an older veteran, Brown may not even be worth a dynasty roster spot in medium-depth formats anymore.
Wide Receiver
McNamara
Deebo Samuel - Samuel entered the season with a question about his volume and role in the offense. Through two weeks, Samuel has the second-highest percentage of his team’s air yards (53.58%) of any wide receiver, and amongst the league leaders in receptions (15) and leading the league in receiving yards (282). With Brandon Aiyuk’s status in the wide receiver pecking order a total mystery through two weeks, Samuel has been able to consolidate his role as the priority wide receiver in the offense, a major boon for his fantasy value.
Cooper Kupp - Kupp’s production has exploded in two games with Matthew Stafford as the new Rams’ quarterback. Kupp is tied for the league lead in receptions (16) and third in yards (271), working well ahead of Robert Woods in the passing game through two weeks (8 receptions and 91 yards). Kupp may have a capped value ceiling because of his age (28) but can be a productive player to acquire in a trade where you are pivoting off a more expensive player.
Jaylen Waddle - Waddle has been a pleasant surprise as a rookie, posting a top 36 start through two weeks. With the injury to Tua Tagovailoa and the return of Will Fuller, there is uncertainty about his situation that should give some skepticism for a major rise in value. Waddle entered the NFL with a questionable production profile, which is usually a cautionary sign for early production, so his early season progress is notable.
Parsons
Cooper Kupp - While bullish on Kupp and Robert Woods this season with Matthew Stafford added to the Rams, Kupp has been the clear preferred option for Stafford. Kupp is the WR1 in fantasy through two weeks, including 100+ yards in both games and three total touchdowns. With WR3+ questions and now a run game with Darrell Henderson on the mend, Kupp's floor is even more insulated.
Brandin Cooks - Cooks is the Rodney Dangerfield of the wide receiver position - he never gets any respect. Cooks is inside the top-12 wide receivers in PPR PPG to open the season. Cooks has quarterback questions with Tyrod Taylor and now Davis Mills (for at least Week 3), but still logged 14 targets in Week 2 while no other Houston player saw more than two. Cooks is a market share dream and, even on a lagging offense, can be a top-12 fantasy receiver this season due to his monopoly of passing game involvement.
Marvin Jones - Like Brandin Cooks, Jones has not been a high-respect dynasty receiver in recent years. Jones is on the wrong side of 30 years old and is not the flashy name of D.J. Chark or Laviska Shenault on the same depth chart. However, Jones is a mid-WR2 through two weeks and has a hearty 20 targets and 11 receptions. Jones is likely a dynasty team's WR4+ on their depth chart, yet can produce much higher for the likely high-volume Jacksonville passing game.
Bischoff
Elijah Moore – Moore has looked the part since training camp opened, and he flashed big-play ability right away with fellow rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. Moore was quiet and did not do much in Week 1, but he made some nice plays last week, catching four passes on eight targets for 47 yards. Moore has excellent upside for the long term and is a wonderful addition to any dynasty roster.
Rondale Moore – The Cardinals drafted Moore to fill a precise role as they lacked a slot option with the quickness and speed to open up other parts of their offense. He is lightning quick, capable of getting open quickly, and gives quarterback Kyler Murray a quick option in the passing game. He showed big-play ability in Week 2, catching a 77-yard score, and he saw the kind of volume that can make him a reliable starter this season. Moore is very intriguing as he can generate production now while also a valuable asset into 2022 and beyond.
Denzel Mims – Mims is trending in a poor direction as he is behind a slew of young players on a roster looking for playmakers. He played three snaps total in Week 1 with receivers Jamison Crowder and Keelan Cole out, and he was a healthy scratch in Week 2. Mims is talented, but he seems to be falling behind. His immediate and long-term future looks grim.
Tight End
Parsons
Hunter Henry - Henry has been a relative non-factor for the Patriots' passing game. They have kept it close to the vest with rookie Mac Jones under center, plus Jonnu Smith has been the preferred option among tight ends for targets. Hunter is in a tough spot to have inklings of a top-12 finish and is currently closer to TE30 than TE12. Outside of a Smith injury, it is tough to see Henry challenging for relevancy beyond 2-TE formats.
Rob Gronkowski - Through two weeks I have been dead wrong in what Rob Gronkowski has left in the tank for this season. Gronkowski is in the top-3 of the position with four touchdowns and 12 receptions. This is on a loaded Tampa Bay passing game where any two of them would be a quality starting unit for another NFL offense. Gronkowski is an all-time player and his season start shows to never fade high-level profiles when paired with elite quarterbacks, regardless of surrounding cast.
Bischoff
Dan Arnold – An unheralded signing in the offseason, Arnold looked solid throughout training camp, but he fizzled in Week 1, catching two passes for six yards. Week 2 was a different story as he made his targets count, catching three of four targets and registering 55 yards. The Panthers are loaded with talent at the receiver position, and Arnold has an excellent opportunity in front of him. He could be the benefactor of soft coverage as defenses will have their hands full with the weapons around him. Arnold’s outlook has moved in a very positive direction.
Mike Gesicki – Gesicki is an uber-athletic tight end, but he has struggled to find a home in the NFL. He is not a tight end that you want to line up next to your tackle and ask him to block in the ground game, which limits him when the Dolphins tackles may need help. Gesicki is more of a big slot receiver than a traditional tight end, and the Dolphins do not need more slot options, all reducing his role. The uncertainty of the Dolphins offense, the lack of a clear role, and the roster construction have Gesicki’s outlook heading negative.
McNamara
Rob Gronkowski - The fact Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce are both in their 32-year-old season, given their career paths, is remarkable. Gronkowski is a key red-zone threat in a Tampa Bay offense that does not appear to have any obvious sign of weakness. For Gronkowski, there may be too many weapons in the offense to sustain his elite pace as he will regress from his two touchdowns per game pace. However, with the weaknesses of the tight end position, there will be plenty of opportunity for a top-10 finish for a healthy Gronkowski, with the potential he returns in 2022. At his preseason cost, a top-10 finish would have returned a value, with the possibility of a 2022 return a windfall scenario.
Maxx Williams - A former day two pick, Maxx Williams has stuck around the NFL by playing a primarily non-receiving role in an Arizona offense that typically ignores the tight end position. Williams was so far off the radar preseason that his 7 receptions and 94 yards are head-turning through two weeks. He warrants an add as a potential beneficiary of some changing offensive schemes in the Arizona offense.
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