Cracking DraftKings Conference Championships

Photo: USA Today Sports

*Statistics cited are a blend of stats after Week 17 and Week 18 and rankings are reflective of all 32 teams*

Divisional Round Games

• Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 54.5 - Spread Chiefs -7.5
• San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams - Over/Under - 45.5 Spread Rams -3.5

Bengals at Chiefs

• Bengals:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • Overall DVOA: 18th
    • Pass DVOA: 14th
    • Run DVOA: 20th
    • Points per game: 5th
    • Yards per game: 9th
  • Defensive Rankings
    • Overall DVOA: 20th
    • Pass DVOA: 24th
    • Run DVOA: 11th
    • Points per game: 17th
    • Yards per game: 18th
  • Point Differential Ranking: 8th (+84)
• Chiefs:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • Overall DVOA: 4th
    • Pass DVOA: 4th
    • Run DVOA: 10th
    • Points per game: 4th
    • Yards per game: 3rd
  • Defensive Rankings
    • Overall DVOA: 24th
    • Pass DVOA: 22nd
    • Run DVOA: 19th
    • Points per game: 13th
    • Yards per game: 26th
  • Point Differential Ranking: 5th (+116)

Clearly, the game to prioritize, the Over/Under here is nine points higher than it is in the 49ers at Rams game. Patrick Mahomes II ($7,400) is the best Quarterback play on this two-game slate without question but Joe Burrow ($6,600) has the best chance to overtake Mahomes in a game that projects to be a back-and-forth shootout. Over Burrow's last four games (Weeks 16 and 17 in the regular season and his two playoff games), the Bengals have shifted their offensive philosophy toward the Quarterback. Cincinnati has a 14% pass rate over expected on first downs and a 9% pass rate over expected on all downs over that span. On the road in Kansas City, Burrow is certain to be pushed by Mahomes on the other side. Giddy up.

Joe Mixon ($6,800) ranked sixth in opportunities per game (21.3) from Weeks 1-17 in the regular season and has seen 43 total opportunities in two postseason games. His usage has remained consistent when it matters and Mixon has a favorable matchup here against a Chiefs defense that ranked poorly overall in DVOA statistics in the regular season. And it helps Mixon has caught ten balls in the two postseason games so far.

Jerick McKinnon ($5,100) has played on 78% and 70% of the offensive snaps over the past two playoff games. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,300) returned last week to play on 30% of the offensive snaps. McKinnon has run 72 pass routes in the playoffs and ran 35 last week while Edwards-Helaire ran 12. Last week, McKinnon carried the ball ten times while Edwards-Helaire toted it seven times. McKinnon is the better play but Edwards-Helaire offers more touchdown upside when the Chiefs get in close. Both are viable and both can be played together in the same lineup.

Routes run in the playoffs: JaMarr Chase ($6,700) 82, Tee Higgins (5,700) 78, Tyler Boyd ($4,200) 76, and C.J. Uzomah ($3,400) 75. Targets in the playoffs: Chase 18, Higgins 13, Boyd 8, and Uzomah 14.

Chase still posted 100+ receiving yards last week despite a "down" game in which he only saw six targets and absolutely torched this Chiefs secondary the last time these two teams played. Higgins is an alpha WR in his own right. Boyd is an awesome contrarian play on this two-game slate because he seemingly should be due for some positive target regression with all of the routes he's running. Uzomah is likely due for a down game at some point but he's running a ton of routes and DraftKings refuses to price him appropriately.

Routes run in the playoffs: Tyreek Hill ($7,000) 81, Travis Kelce ($6,500) 83, Byron Pringle ($4,300) 72, Mecole Hardman ($4,000) 44, and Demarcus Robinson ($3,800) 66. Targets in the playoffs: Hill 18, Kelce 16, Pringle 14, Hardman 5, and Robinson 6.

Hill and Kelce are incredible plays but Pringle must be mentioned in a tier of his own ahead of Hardman and Robinson because his usage is that of a near-full time pass-catcher tied to Mahomes.

49ers at Rams

• 49ers:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • Overall DVOA: 5th
    • Pass DVOA: 5th
    • Run DVOA: 5th
    • Points per game: 13th
    • Yards per game: 10th
  • Defensive Rankings
    • Overall DVOA: 8th
    • Pass DVOA: 18th
    • Run DVOA: 2nd
    • Points per game: 13th
    • Yards per game: 4th
  • Point Differential Ranking: 12th (+62)
• Rams:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • Overall DVOA: 6th
    • Pass DVOA: 8th
    • Run DVOA: 12th
    • Points per game: 9th
    • Yards per game: 6th
  • Defensive Rankings
    • Overall DVOA: 5th
    • Pass DVOA: 5th
    • Run DVOA: 4th
    • Points per game: 15th
    • Yards per game: 16th
  • Point Differential Ranking: 6th (+88)

The biggest factors for this game being less exciting than Bengals at Chiefs are 1) Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,400) is playing in it 2) both teams have no problem playing ball-control offense and 3) these are the two best defenses on the slate. It's a realistic probability these defenses, combined with more rushing attempts than we'll see in the first game, will neutralize the offensive firepower in this one. From a macro level, that means we certainly want to prioritize stacks and correlation in the Bengals at Chiefs game. However, Matthew Stafford ($6,300) is the one player that can flip all of this logic on its head. Stafford ranked second in both pass yards per game (290.5) and pass touchdowns per game (2.4) from Weeks 1-17 in the regular season, outranking both Patrick Mahomes II and Joe Burrow. And, of course, Stafford is paired with the league's best pass-catcher this season in Cooper Kupp ($8,800).

Snaps in the playoffs: Cam Akers ($5,000) 90 and Sony Michel ($4,600) 38. The separation here really came last week in what was Akers' third game of the season. Snaps in the Divisional Round: Akers 58 and Michel 14. Opportunities in the playoffs: Akers 46 and Michel 16. This looks like an open and shut case but unfortunately, it's not since Akers lost two fumbles last week in what almost became one of the worst postseason collapses in NFL History. Fortunately for Akers the Rams were still able to pull out the win. My take: Akers playing time and touch count domination over Michel in just his third game back from injury was no fluke. That data shows the coaches much prefer Akers, which is why he's likely miraculously on the field in the first place following an Achilles tear. In fact, I'll even go as far as to imagine a scenario where the Rams coaches view Akers fumbles as a positive presenting them as Akers "Getting them out of his system and shaking off the rust." Akers is the clear play here.

Elijah Mitchell ($5,900) ranked eighth in the entire league in opportunities per game (20.6) from Weeks 1-17 in the regular season and has received 50 total opportunities through two games in the playoffs. Mitchell is a fine volume play but the most significant injury that occurred last week was to the 49ers' dominating Left Tackle, Trent Williams. He's likely to miss this game but if he plays, there's no doubt he'll be operating at less than 100%. That's a significant development worth considering against a Rams defensive front led by Aaron Donald that ranked fourth in Run DVOA in the regular season.

Routes run in the playoffs: Kupp 62, Odell Beckham ($5,100) 55, Van Jefferson ($3,900) 58, and Tyler Higbee ($3,700) 58. Targets in the playoffs: Kupp 18, Beckham 12, Jefferson 4, and Higbee 11.

Kupp is not a priority on this slate the Bengals at Chiefs game is our main focus. However, the priority when choosing exposure in this game is still Kupp. Van Jefferson jumps out as a very intriguing tournament play here since his 58 routes should lead to more targets eventually, so why not this week? Jefferson is listed as Questionable on the injury report, which should drive his ownership percentages from low down to nonexistent. I'd be shocked if he wasn't active. DraftKigs refuses to price Higbee appropriately. He's a major factor for the Rams' passing offense.

Routes run in the playoffs: Deebo Samuel ($7,200) 36, Brandon Aiyuk ($5,000) 43, Jauan Jennings ($3,200) 30, and George Kittle ($5,000) 45. Targets in the playoffs: Samuel 7, Aiyuk 7, Jennings 7, and Kittle 9.

Samuel's numbers look very unimpressive until you factor in his 20 total carries so far in the two playoff games. Samuel is the best play not only because he's one of the best players in the league but also because his dual-threat role makes him less reliant on Garoppolo. The others unfortunately can't say the same. And Kittle, despite being one of the best pass-catching Tight Ends the NFL has to offer, might be neutralized a bit if Trent Williams doesn't play since he's such a great blocker.

Bonus: Kyle Juszczyk ($4,100) is in play for me on this two-game slate. He 1) opens up significant salary to go stack the alphas 2) the Running Back options aren't great and 3) Juszczyk has a locked-in role in San Francisco's offense. Juszczyk played on 680 snaps in the regular season, which was 154 more than Elijah Mitchell and he ranked tied for fourth on the team in targets (38), fourth in receptions (30), and fourth in receiving yards (296). We're in absolute business if Juszczyk cathces a couple passes. If he scores, OHHH BABYY.

Key Injuries and Suspensions

• Darrel Williams Questionable - Upgrade Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire
• Van Jefferson Questionable - Upgrade Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, and Tyler Higbee
• Trent Williams Questionable - Upgrade Rams D/ST