Why Antonio Gibson is a Lock to Improve in 2021

Photo: USA Today Sports

Antonio Gibson enjoyed a breakout rookie season in 2020 in large part due to 11 rushing touchdowns, but also a fortunate series of events leading to his rise up the Washington depth chart. If you recall, before the 2020 season, Washington released the troubled running back, Derrius Guice, and later did the same with future Hall-of-Famer Adrian Peterson. Those roster decisions opened the door for Gibson to stake his claim atop the depth chart. And he did. Having established himself as the team's lead ball-carrier, can he match last year's heroics? Can he be better? And when should you feel comfortable drafting him in 2021?

First the accolades...

Antonio Gibson rushed for 795 yards in 170 carries (4.7 YPC) with 11 rushing touchdowns as a rookie. He added 36 receptions for 247 receiving yards as a pass-catcher. He finished the season ranked RB13 in standard scoring and RB14 in PPR. While 1,042 total yards is a solid tally, it normally wouldn't be enough for a top-15 finish. Touchdowns contributed nearly 40% (38.8%) of his total fantasy value, an unusually high contribution margin. Had he scored half as many touchdowns, he would've finished nearly outside of the Top 25. Touchdown scorers are more likely to finish in the Top 20, if not higher.

In 2020, Gibson had a 62% chance of scoring a touchdown in any game where he had 5+ carries. Only six running backs had a greater percentage than that.

• Derrick Henry - 62.5%
• David Johnson - 63.6%
• Aaron Jones - 64.2%
• Nick Chubb - 75.0%
• Dalvin Cook - 78.5%
• Alvin Kamara - 80.0%

Take note of this statistic...

In NFL history, only four rookie running backs scored 10+ rushing touchdowns, had 35+ receptions, and had fewer than 200 carries. Antonio Gibson is one of them. He joins Maurice Jones-Drew, Herschel Walker, and Marcus Allen.

Examining the success of each player further shows a common theme - they are touchdown scorers, scoring at least eight touchdowns per year in a qualifying year, where a qualifying year equals 150+ carries.

What is the threshold of success for running backs?

Historically speaking, to reach the Top 20, a running back scores 8+ touchdowns in a season. Reaching 200 carries is also a good benchmark but it's not as predictive as scoring, especially with the increasing use of running back-by-committee approaches.

In the last five years...

• 83% of running backs in the Top 20 scored 8+ touchdowns
• 87% of running backs who scored 8+ touchdowns finished in the top 20

What's the bottom line? Touchdown scorers equate to running back success, and Antonio Gibson has established that ability. With the same coaching staff and system in place and no credible additions to the running back depth chart, his role as a redzone threat remains ironclad.

What's the recipe for success scoring touchdowns as a running back?

• Talent
• Volume - carries (Washington was 15th in running back carries in 2020)
• Opportunity - % of carries (Gibson accounted for 58% of running back carries in available games)
• Red zone success - 70% or higher touchdown conversion in the red zone (WAS had 59% / 17th in NFL)
• Capable quarterback - A quarterback rating of 95 or higher (Haskins/Alex Smith were both under 80%. Ryan Fitzpatrick was 95.6%)
• Strong defense - shorter fields equals greater chance to score (Washington is expected to be a Top 10 defense in 2021).

Antonio Gibson checks most of the above boxes. The addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick under center should only help the offense, giving Washington more opportunities in the red zone. The team finished tied for 27th with 3.0 red zone visits per game last season. Only Philadelphia, Denver, Jacksonville, NY Giants, and NY Jets were worse. That Gibson mustered 11 rushing touchdowns given the paucity of red-zone appearances is impressive.

Looking ahead to 2021

The Washington depth chart at running back features Gibson at the top, followed by J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber. McKissic is a situational player. At 5-foot-10, 187 pounds, he isn't suited to a workhorse role. He's never had more than 85 carries in a season. McKissic excels as a pass-catcher (80 receptions in 2020); he's the consummate third-down specialist. Barber's is the more traditional backup; a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency role. He has a similar size to Gibson and can be inserted as a change of pace goal line or short-yardage back if needed. Barber averaged a mere 2.7 yards-per-carry last season and only saw increased usage when Gibson was inactive.

Where should you draft Gibson in season-long leagues?

As the season approaches, ADPs will ebb and flow based on news, injuries, depth chart variances, etc. In 12-team leagues, Gibson is being selected anywhere from the late-first to the late-second round. It's not as much a question of where to draft Gibson, it's when. The safest time is anytime after Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler are selected. Some may like Aaron Jones as the next best running back, but the Aaron Rodgers situation muddies those waters. Cam Akers is in the same conversation as Gibson, but when in doubt, the tie goes to the touchdown scorer on a rising offense, and that's Gibson.

Stats and Projections

Six of seven staffers project Gibson to exceed 200 carries and 1,000 yards rushing. All seven believe he will score double-digit touchdowns, and reach 35+ receptions. Numbers will be skewed in 2021 with an extra game but if he finished as RB13 in 2020 in only 14 games, what is he capable of doing in 17 games, with an extra year of experience, and a coach who knows he can lean on him? The sky is the limit for one of the better dual-purpose backs in the league.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com

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