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A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (which can be found very late in a fantasy draft). We asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Here is the player who received the most votes:
- Sam Darnold, who beat out a handful of veterans and rookies who each got multiple votes
And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Sam Darnold, Carolina | Consensus Rankings QB24 | Consensus Projections QB24
Drew Davenport: Darnold has never had the weapons at his disposal that he'll have in Carolina, nor the offensive coaching ability that will be helping him try to resurrect his spotty showing in the NFL to date. Without belaboring the point the other staffers have made, it is an ideal spot for Darnold to see if he can turn things around and become a productive NFL quarterback. The good news for fantasy drafters is they can grab Darnold for almost nothing, and it should be apparent early on if the bump from Adam Gase to the Panthers' staff is real or not. If it is? He could easily use his impressive group of skill position players to push up into the top of QB2 territory. His ADP leaves plenty of room for value.
Pat Fitzmaurice: Is it reasonable to place all the blame for Darnold's early-career struggles at the feet of former Jets head coach Adam Gase? Probably not, but it's certainly reasonable to think that Panthers head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady give Darnold a much better chance to fulfill his potential than Gase did. Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Robby Anderson will make Darnold's job easier. Darnold has a favorable schedule to open the season, facing the Jets (revenge game!), Saints, Texans, Cowboys, and Eagles in his first five games.
Jeff Haseley: The name of the game with Sam Darnold is potential. Sure, he was less than stellar in his time in New York, but his draft pedigree and flashes of strong quarterback play keep me coming back to him as someone who could surprise with a new team, new staff, new weapons, and newfound confidence. Darnold can be a late-round dart throw who could turn out to be a fantasy gem. You won't find a better late-round quarterback with talent, ability, youth, and the surrounding talent and leadership to help him reach new heights. The potential is there, and that's where the value lies.
Andy Hicks: Sam Darnold has strong weapons at his disposal in D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall, and of course, Christian McCaffrey. He has a coaching staff dedicated to playing to his strengths. All that is his upside. The downside is the ghost of Adam Gase. If he starts the season with confidence, you have yourself a fantasy steal. If the Jets experience has ruined him, we will find that out soon enough when real NFL defenses attempt to rattle Darnold.
Jason Wood: Sam Darnold has a lot to prove in Carolina. And his performance as the Jets franchise quarterback leaves more questions than answers. But his pedigree is without reproach, and it's easy to see the Adam Gase era in New York as a failure of epic proportions. Investing in Darnold is an exercise in trusting Joe Brady. Brady is on a meteoric rise up the coaching ranks and is one strong season from Darnold away from an NFL head coaching job. Darnold will finally have a coaching staff dedicated to calling plays suited to his skill set and has a collection of skill players that will make his job easier than it ever was in Gotham.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington | Consensus Rankings QB20 | Consensus Projections QB23
Sigmund Bloom: Fitzpatrick has been a fantasy QB1 at each of his last two stops, so there's no reason to expect him to be a fantasy footnote on his latest team. Washington has assembled exciting young talent at wide receiver and running back. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner should tap into vertical passing pages of the playbook that were unavailable with Alex Smith and Co. last year. Just be ready to pick up Taylor Heinicke if Fitzpatrick reverts to the occasional turnover-fest that has cost him starting jobs in the past.
Victoria Geary: Fitzpatrick gives the Washington offense a semblance of continuity after they went through a carousel of quarterbacks last season. In 2020, he finished with a QBR of 76.9, good for fifth-best amongst all quarterbacks and the best rating of his entire career. Fitzpatrick is now surrounded by capable playmakers in wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, as well as breakout running back Antonio Gibson. The Washington Football Team has a middling strength of schedule, and their defense will need help from Fitzpatrick to keep them in games. He has the potential to outperform his ADP by a large margin this year.
Jordan McNamara: Washington's offense was awful last year. Washington's addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick changes the landscape of the entire NFC East. Fitzpatrick’s 2020 completion percentage over expectation was also the best of the five-year period. Fitzpatrick’s move from Miami to Washington comes with a better supporting cast in Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, and Antonio Gibson. There is no threat from a highly drafted rookie. Fitzpatrick has top-12 upside this season and is a deep sleeper, particularly in super-flex leagues.
Chad Parsons: Fitzpatrick enters the most promising Week 1 projection of his career. Paired with a quality defense, Fitzpatrick is surrounded by Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, plus offseason additions of Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and Adam Humphries. Fitzpatrick is also mobile for his age, averaging more than 15 yards per game a year ago. Expect top-12 weeks from Fitzpatrick; he is the perfect late-draft target or committee option to open the season.
Daniel Jones, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings QB23 | Consensus Projections QB22
James Brimacombe: The 2020 season was not kind to Daniel Jones, but that is why we are seeing him at a huge discount this offseason. Jones was a high capital draft pick two years ago who should flash in his rookies season but took a step back in his sophomore season. I want to give Jones one more shot with a healthy team in front of him as he will have both Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay as superstar-like options this season and additions in Kadarius Toney, John Ross, Devontae Booker, and Kyle Rudolph. Jones also offers some ability in the rushing game as he has 702 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in 27 career games.
Pat Fitzmaurice: As a rookie in 2019, Jones finished 15th in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks. His fantasy value cratered last year because the touchdowns dried up. Jones had 11 touchdown passes in 14 games, with a puny touchdown rate of 2.5%. The return of Saquon Barkley and the addition of Kenny Golladay will put more arrows in Jones' quiver, and it's reasonable to expect the 24-year-old quarterback to take a step forward in his third NFL season. It also helps that Jones adds value as a runner, so he can still be a worthwhile fantasy asset even if he doesn't mature into a high-end passer.
Jeff Haseley: Jones took two steps back in 2020 compared to his rookie 2019 season, but now he has the opportunity to step up and be a top 20 quarterback, if not higher. The Giants have bolstered their offense by adding to their arsenal Kenny Golladay and drafting Kadarius Toney, plus they will have Saquon Barkley back, which can only help the offense as a whole. Jones' fantasy stock took a hit after a not-so-appealing 2020, but that drop can be considered a discount. Let's not forget that Jones also has rushing ability. His 423 yards rushing in 14 games last year was the 5th highest per game total for all quarterbacks. Dual-threat quarterbacks are a high commodity in the fantasy landscape. Jones qualifies as such. If he can resume his potential of mid-upper 20s in touchdown passes, he'll easily outperform his draft stock. If he does not rise to the occasion in the early going, he can be a no-stress drop for another player of value.
Ryan Hester: The Giants made offensive skill players a priority this off-season by signing Kenny Golladay and drafting Kadarius Toney in the first round. Those additions and the return of Saquon Barkley should help Jones put up better numbers. Jones also adds value with his legs. Ironically, the best example came on the infamous run where he fell without being touched. But by breaking into the open field and running 80+ yards, Jones showed both willingness and ability to use his legs and rank up those valuable rushing points.
Trey Lance, San Francisco | Consensus Rankings QB27 | Consensus Projections QB29
Sigmund Bloom: The last time Kyle Shanahan had a running quarterback to pilot his offense, Robert Griffin III put together one of the best rookie seasons of all time, and he didn't have the offensive line and skill players that Lance will have if the rookie can unseat Jimmy Garoppolo. At least one long-time beat writer, Matt Maiocco, indicated that the team would allow Lance to do that this summer in training camp. Lance would be an instant top 12 fantasy quarterback the moment he is named the starter. At some point in your draft, he's worth taking, even if your team was the one that took Patrick Mahomes II.
James Brimacombe: Lance has everything going for him in the fantasy circles as he enters his rookie season. The 49ers traded up and paid a premium 3rd overall draft pick on him, he is going to one of the most quarterback-friendly teams with a coach that is ideal for him in Kyle Shanahan, and he has an extreme rushing ability. The only downfall for Lance is when will he actually see the field as Jimmy Garoppolo is still on the roster. His ADP continues to rise as Lance fits all the molds of the type of quarterback you want to plant a flag on to make a run at a title, and this is even in a rookie season.
Ryan Hester: The only thing standing between Lance and a top-5 weekly ceiling is Jim Garoppolo. Lance’s skill set and offensive weapons are what fantasy GMs look for when drafting late-round quarterbacks. He’ll have playmakers around him, and he won’t be shy to tuck the ball and run, which — for fantasy purposes — is sometimes better than being a prolific passer.
Matt Waldman: Lance is a nice streamer option to pair with an early-round pick or a mid-round co-streamer for your quarterback-by-committee. He's in an offense that is a perfect fit with what he did at North Dakota State, and he's far more advanced with pre-snap decision-making than credited. Big, strong, fast, and with plenty of arm talent, Lance may not post consistent fantasy production as a passer this year in a 49ers offense that runs the ball better than anyone, but his legs will buoy his production enough for big weeks. Don't be surprised if Lance and Justin Fields have a stretch of weeks that place them well inside the top-10 of fantasy quarterbacks, as we saw from Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson during their rookie years.
Jameis Winston, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings QB30 | Consensus Projections QB28
Phil Alexander: Winston stands alone as the lowest-cost/highest upside player at any position in early drafts. The Saints' most trusted beat reporters agree Winston is the favorite to start over Taysom Hill. While Hill will likely resume his role as an occasional wet blanket in the red zone, Winston's ceiling remains inside the Top 10 fantasy quarterbacks as New Orleans' primary signal-caller. It was only two years ago he led the NFL in passing yards and finished as the overall QB2. What he'll lack in the pass-heavy game scripts that propelled him to fantasy success in Tampa Bay, Winston should make up for in more efficient short and intermediate throws to Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and tight end breakout candidate Adam Trautman. Winston is also more capable than Drew Brees of unlocking TreQuan Smith's potential as a vertical threat.
Victoria Geary: Winston is just one year removed from an overall QB3 finish, scoring 21 fantasy points per game. He has remained a massive value on draft boards throughout the offseason due to the uncertainty at the quarterback position in New Orleans. Many believe it may be Taysom Hill at the helm due to his rapport with head coach Sean Payton, but Hill's versatility as a weapon from anywhere on the field makes the offense much less predictable than if he were their starting quarterback. Running back Alvin Kamara, the heart and soul of the New Orleans' offense, tallied just six total targets from Hill in Weeks 11 through 13 after averaging nine targets per game with Drew Brees. Winston's experience as a starter and the ability to absorb the playbook throughout a full offseason should leave no doubt for the coaching staff when training camp finally arrives.
Andy Hicks: Jameis Winston is capable of being an elite fantasy quarterback. Lost in the 30 interception season of 2019 was exceeding 5000 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns. His arm talent is special. This is it, though. He has to take the job and hold it. Taysom Hill is limited, but he won’t lose the game. Hill is better suited to the jack of all trades role. Winston can propel this offense in an explosive direction. High upside, but early-season-cut downside too.
Chad Parsons: With deep sleepers, the key aspect is clarity. The draft investment is minimal (late-round selection or waiver wire depending on league depth), and the roster spot outside of best-ball formats is a "reassess in early September." With Jameis Winston, the formula to be a rousing fantasy success from his draft cost is simple - the pair with Sean Payton works out, and Taysom Hill is a clear second option. A healthy Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara make life easy for whoever is starting for the Saints, and we have seen Winston as a top-10 PPG option twice before in his career. If Hill is a major fantasy drag in the red zone or Winston continues his high-interception ways in the early weeks, Winston will be an easy one for a fantasy roster pivot.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings QB19 | Consensus Projections QB21
Drew Davenport: This ADP must reflect the general lack of confidence in the Pittsburgh offensive line and the negative buzz around Roethlisberger last year as his deep ball accuracy fell. As 2020 unfolded, those watching the Steelers' offensive struggles began to feel as though they were watching a quarterback who was finished, and at times Roethlisberger didn't play well. But his numbers tell a different story for fantasy purposes. He still threw over 600 passes (3rd in the league) and 33 touchdowns while posting a 5.4% touchdown rate. Roethlisberger may be nearing the end, but for fantasy purposes, he still has three excellent wide receivers and now has a new running back to help the offense. His ADP is a massive overreaction to what people saw on the field in 2020.
Dan Hindery: In his last two full seasons (2018 and 2020), Roethlisberger threw 34 and 33 touchdown passes, respectively. In 2018, he also led the NFL with 5,129 passing yards. While the offensive line is a concern, he has an enviable stable of weapons and could find himself in many shootouts with a defense that has lost some key pieces. His position is not so dissimilar from Aaron Rodgers heading into 2020.
Jason Wood: Wow, it's hard to fathom how Roethlisberger isn't everyone's choice. You would think he was on a downward spiral, but he played 15 games last year, completed 66% of his passes, had a 5.4% touchdown rate, threw 33 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions. He averaged close to 21 fantasy points per game. Yet, he's being treated like a desperation backup in most leagues. By all accounts, he's healthy, focused, and had a cadre of great receivers. Last year, the Steelers' only shortfall was an inability to run the ball, and Najee Harris and new offensive coordinator Matt Canada will fix that. Roethlisberger may no longer have top-5 upside, but he has a rock-solid QB2 floor and is most likely to finish in the Top 10 to Top 12 range.
Zach Wilson, NY Jets | Consensus Rankings QB29 | Consensus Projections QB26
Anthony Amico: In a year with exceptional rookie quarterbacks, the second overall pick appears to be slipping through the cracks in drafts. The Jets have bolstered their weaponry immensely since last season, adding Corey Davis, Keelan Cole, and Elijah Moore to Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims. New York has also improved its offensive line. Wilson ran for 254 yards (including sack yardage) and 10 touchdowns last season at BYU, indicating that he is also a better rushing threat than we may be giving him credit for.
Dan Hindery: Wilson is the perfect late-round QB2 if you nabbed a top starter. You want to swing for the fences instead of taking somebody without any real fantasy upside. Nobody knows for sure what we are going to get from Wilson, but the potential is undeniable. He has a big arm, is willing to make risky throws, and has a sneakily strong supporting cast. He is also an underrated athlete who may have surprising rushing upside at the NFL level. Think Josh Allen.
Matt Waldman: Wilson has weapons with excellent potential and a system to deliver in a way that limits his weaknesses as a decision-maker. If the offensive line improves and the young skill talent gels fast with Wilson, he could deliver as a low-end fantasy QB1 throughout the year. Considering that the offensive line is still a weakness, the talents are young, the staff is new, and the Jets scheme benefits Wilson more than Wilson benefits the Jets when comparing him to other 2021 quarterback prospects, I'm not confident in him delivering to this level in 2021. But for a late pick, you don't need high confidence margins.
