An important aspect of fantasy football is getting ahead of the curve in player values. We've listed and highlighted some players who show a change in value and let you know what to do with them in Week 14's "Three Up, Three Down" article.
Three Up
Javonte Williams: Let’s start with the most apparent and talked-about player from this week’s slate. Williams had shown a lot to get excited about over his rookie season before Sunday night’s explosion. In Melvin Gordon’s absence and on a primetime stage, Williams delivered a whopping 178 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Although the Broncos fell short to the Chiefs, Williams racked up his yards emphatically; trucking through the defenders, pushing piles of bodies, showcasing prowess as a receiver, and displaying some speed on his touchdown scamper. Prior to his debut as a starter, Williams’ advanced rushing metrics were easy to get excited about. Per Pro Football Reference, Williams was tied with Joe Mixon with a league-high 19 broken tackles, despite having almost half as many carries. Gordon has been a serviceable back for Denver this year, and there’s no reason to expect them to stray away from a committee when he returns. But Williams’ abilities as a dynamic back are impossible to ignore. Seven years younger than Gordon, Williams can add a spark to this sputtering Broncos’ offense. Gordon was the preferred rusher before Week 13, while Williams took on more receiving work. Don’t be surprised if Williams can siphon some of those carries from Gordon and finish the season strong. There’s a phrase that gets thrown around often in fantasy football: “Always bet on talent.” Right now, the talent being emitted from Williams is palpable, and he can be relied on as a rock-solid RB2 going forward. If Gordon misses any more time, consider Williams a low-end RB1.
George Kittle: It’s been a while since we’ve witnessed a vintage George Kittle performance. Anyone that’s watched him over the years shouldn’t be surprised by Sunday’s 181-yard, two-touchdown outing. That was his 12th career game with over 100-plus yards. Playing in just 62 games, that’s a better pace (19.2%) than every tight end in the league besides Rob Gronkowski (23.4%) and Travis Kelce (22.8%). Shockingly, this was the first multi-touchdown game of Kittle’s career. He’s struggled to find the end zone over the years, with just 19 receiving touchdowns through his first five seasons. Since returning from IR in Week 9 though, he’s found pay dirt five times! Some of his increased usage last week had to do with Deebo Samuel being inactive, but Kittle has been heating up regardless of Samuel’s status. He’s seen an increase in snaps every week as his injured calf gets stronger. Kittle was a bargain in drafts this offseason due to injury concerns. With a clean bill of health though, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be in the conversation with Travis Kelce as the overall TE1 in fantasy football going forward.
Tua Tagovailoa: After having some of the loudest doubters in football, Tagovailoa’s have fallen silent recently. Not only have the Miami Dolphins won five straight games, but Tagovailoa is putting up solid numbers and commanding the field in these last three wins. Since taking the reins back as the starter in Week 11, the second-year quarterback is averaging 249 passing yards on a ludicrous 80-percent completion rate. He’s thrown five touchdowns and one interception over that time while being the QB7 in fantasy. The Dolphins head into the bye this week, but Tagovailoa gets to close out the fantasy season with matchups against the Jets, Saints, and Titans. According to our strength of schedule tool, that is the best remaining schedule of any quarterback, projecting for an extra 1.83 points per game above his season average. Still available in over half of fantasy football leagues, Tagovailoa is a great player to pick up for quarterback-needy teams.
Three Down
Michael Pittman: Things were looking pleasant for Pittman early in 2021. After an injury-plagued season kept the early-second rounder from doing much as a rookie, Pittman was great to start the season. Through Week 9, he was WR7 in PPR formats. He averaged 7.9 targets, 5.6 receptions, and 73.1 yards per game, scoring five times in nine outings. Over the last four weeks though, he’s seen his usage and output drop as he’s averaging just 56.0 yards per game without a single touchdown. While his points are trending down, there’s still reason to believe that he’ll bounce back. Looking at his last four weeks, the Colts had blowouts against the Jaguars and Texans and tough matchups against the Bills and Buccaneers. Despite negative game scripts and brutal opponents, Pittman still saw a healthy 7.0 targets per game. Although his schedule doesn’t get much easier (Patriots, Cardinals, and Raiders), you’ve got to hope that his talent and usage pay off. Pittman is 10th in receptions, 10th in receiving yards, and 20th in receiving touchdowns, so you can expect that to balance out as the season progresses. His recent output is frustrating, and he’s technically been trending down over the last month. But he’s a strong candidate for positive regression and can still be relied on as a WR2.
DK Metcalf: I don’t think anyone expected the return of Russell Wilson to negatively impact Metcalf this season, but here we are. In games with Wilson, Metcalf is seeing a heavier usage rate but it isn’t translating to fantasy points. With Wilson, he’s seeing 7.8 targets per game but posting just 13.3 fantasy points. Without Wilson, his targets drop to 6.0 per game but he is averaging 17.2 points per game and has a better yardage output and touchdown rate. Frankly, Wilson has not been himself this year. His 226.9 passing yards per game come in as the second-lowest average since his 2014 season. With Shane Waldron in Seattle, the Seahawks were hoping for a better passing attack but it hasn’t come to fruition yet. In the four games since Wilson returned from his injury, Metcalf is averaging just 3.3 receptions for 32.5 scoreless yards per game. This offseason, I hinted that Metcalf might be more of a boom or must WR2 than the bonafide WR1 he was projected to be, and that seems to be the case so far. His 2021 season is reminiscent of his 2020 season where he got off to a hot start and struggled down the stretch. Metcalf was the WR2 through the first half of 2020 and the WR37 over the back half. After finishing the first half of this season as the WR8, Metcalf is the WR53 so far through since Week 10. Admittedly, these splits are probably a bit flukey. But they’re tough to ignore. Because of Metcalf’s sky-high ceiling, you’re still starting him every week. But unfortunately, you’ll have to brace for some duds as he and the Seahawks may continue to struggle.
James Robinson: This is tough to write because Robinson is oozing with talent and has already shown his ability to put up fantasy points on a dreadful offense. His size, speed, strength, balance, and pass-catching abilities make him a premier fantasy asset. Unfortunately, though, his fumbling issues are significant enough that’s it’s becoming a cause for concern. Robinson isn’t fumbling at an extraordinarily high rate (four on the season), but Jaguars’ head coach Urban Meyer seems to be frustrated. He’s benched Robinson for coughing the ball up in back-to-back games. In both Weeks 12 and 13, Robinson had an early fumble and was kept on the bench for multiple quarters after. In an interview on Monday, Robinson said that Carlos Hyde was calling for a breather and the coaching staff kept Robinson on the sidelines. Meyer tried to play the benching off as an injury concern in his post-game press conference, but Robinson was put back in during the fourth quarter of a blowout loss. Whatever is happening in Jacksonville is enough that Robinson should take a slight dive in your weekly rankings. Similar to Metcalf, his ceiling still makes him a weekly must-start. But a coach that’s willing to push him to the bench for a fumble makes him an incredibly risky start moving forward. When guaranteed a starting workload, Robinson is a high-end RB2. But this yo-yoing on and off the bench over the last few weeks is coming at a very inopportune time for fantasy managers that are making a playoff push.
