An important aspect of fantasy football is getting ahead of the curve in player values. We've listed and highlighted some players who show a change in value and let you know what to do with them in Week 13's "Three Up, Three Down" article.
Three Up
Brandon Aiyuk: There’s still a lot of speculation as to what happened with Aiyuk early in the season. Whatever the reason was for his lack of utilization early on, it appears to be behind him. He has returned to form as the dominant receiver we saw last year. Aiyuk failed to crack the 90-percent snap threshold once between Weeks 1-8. He’s now exceeded that mark in four straight outings. Over that time, he’s averaging 6.3 targets per game. He’s gone for 85 or more yards in three of those games. And he has recorded two touchdowns. Since Week 9, Aiyuk has ranked as the WR15 in PPR formats. There was plenty of hype surrounding Aiyuk this offseason after he finished the 2020 season on a tear. Along with the hype though, there was some trepidation. His fantasy output aligned with injuries to Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, and many thought it would be tough for all three to remain relevant in fantasy. With Samuel suddenly seeing a slew of carries out of the backfield, Aiyuk is able to get his points through the air, and there’s still enough left over for Kittle to occasionally find the end zone. Aiyuk was selected 25th overall in 2020 and has the skillset to be one of the league’s premier receivers. It looks like his early-season woes are behind him, and you can confidently plug him in as a WR2 going forward.
Kendrick Bourne: Since Week 10, Bourne has been the WR7 in PPR scoring. Sure, that output is heavily weighed by a pair of touchdowns in Week 12, but Bourne has recently stepped up as a powerful fantasy asset. Jakobi Meyers is out-targeting him 90 to 53 on the year, but Bourne is outscoring him in all fantasy formats. Bourne is also leading the team in receiving yards. If you’re interested in chasing usage, Meyers and Agholor might be the safer bets. But Bourne has had a penchant for breaking off big plays this year. He’s leading the Patriots receivers in yards per reception, yards after the catch, and touchdowns. There’s nothing exceptional about Bourne’s profile. He was signed as an undrafted free agent and doesn’t have eye-popping speed or strength. But he’s got wiggle and agility that makes him a menace after the catch. Among wide receivers, Bourne is fifth in yards after the catch per reception this year. Only Deebo Samuel, Rondale Moore, Mecole Hardman, and JaMarr Chase are doing more damage after securing the catch this year. Bourne has also got a knack for using his 6’1” frame to box out defenders in the end zone, making him a decent goal-line threat. Meyers is still the WR1 in New England, but Bourne has done enough over the last few weeks to garner some more looks and can be started as a risky WR2.
Ameer Abdullah: Chuba Hubbard was the first name that probably came to your mind in the wake of Christian McCaffrey’s season-ending injury. When McCaffrey was out in Weeks 4-8, Hubbard stepped in as the team’s lead back. Then the Panthers signed Abdullah, a former second-round pick, before Week 7’s matchup. In that game, Abdullah was relegated to special team duties. Hubbard remained the primary back heading into Week 8 but has failed to see more snaps or touches than Abdullah in a game since. Hubbard saw plenty of volume in McCaffrey’s absence but was highly inefficient with it. Despite seeing 107 touches over those five weeks, Hubbard scored just two touchdowns. In Week 12, Abdullah saw 49-percent of the team’s snaps and six targets. Hubbard played just 20-percent of the snaps and saw one lone target. That was in a blowout game, so the deployment of their backfield going forward could be a bit different. But Abdullah has shown his value as a pass-catching back in Carolina. This will likely be a split backfield going forward, so don’t expect either to be this year’s Mike Davis. While most fantasy managers are blowing their FAAB on Hubbard this week, the savvy fantasy players will get Abdullah at a discount, who has an equally high ceiling in a backfield full of uncertainty.
Three Down
Will Fuller: Will Fuller has only played in a game and a half this season and is reported to be getting closer to a return. His placement on the “trending down” section has less to do with his talents and much more to do with the breakouts of his teammates. Waddle is exceeding his expectations and playing out of his mind as a rookie. Since Week 6, Waddle is the overall WR2 behind only Cooper Kupp. Over that seven-game sample size, Waddle is averaging 9.6 targets and 75.4 yards per game with four total touchdowns. Best yet, Waddle has been getting it done on his own accord. He’s totaling the 10th-most yards after the catch among all wide receivers this year. Additionally, Mike Gesicki has come on a legitimate receiving threat, seeing the fourth-most targets among all tight ends. Fuller was drafted as a fantasy WR2 this year as he was expected to be the Dolphins’ primary weapon in the passing game after serving his two-game suspension. Unfortunately, his time away will make it nearly impossible to regain that title. The breakouts of Waddle and Gesicki make Fuller a boom or bust WR3 when he returns.
Cam Newton: Coming off the worst game of his career, Newton is clearly trending down. He completed just 5-of-21 pass attempts. Yes, you read that correctly. 92 total passing yards on 21 attempts. For quarterbacks with 20-plus attempts, that’s the lowest completion percentage since 2004. 64 of his 92 total passing yards came on a single play to DJ Moore (which was slightly underthrown). Newton threw two interceptions and zero touchdowns and took a sack. He was able to salvage his fantasy output with a rushing touchdown, but it was a horrendous day for Newton. Having a quarterback with rushing abilities is fantastic in fantasy football. Unfortunately, though, Newton has been so bad as a passer that he might not finish out the year as the team’s starting quarterback. On Monday, head coach Matt Rhule said PJ Walker would get some snaps in Week 13. At 32 years and with a long list of injuries, Newton simply isn’t the player he used to be. He regularly missed routine throws and doesn’t have the elite athleticism to extend plays like he used to. In addition to Newton’s obvious struggles as a passer, losing McCaffrey will send ripple effects through the entire offense. There might be a leaguemate out there who is enticed by Newton’s name value and rushing prowess. If so, try to ship him off immediately. He’s likely a week or two out from the fantasy football waiver wire.
Damien Harris: Early in the season, Harris appeared locked into a heavy workload. He was paying off huge for people that drafted him late in the dreaded “running back dead zone.” Well, he’s seen his snap count drop every game since Week 8 as Rhamondre Stevenson continues to earn touches. Stevenson was drafted by the Patriots in the fourth round this year. He was expected to play a relief role to Harris but has been playing too well to stay on the bench. He weighs a mammoth 231 pounds but is exceptionally nimble on his feet and has the strength to finish runs with punishing blows. He’s a decent pass-catcher as well. With Harris and Stevenson splitting early-down touches, both of them lose their fantasy value. Every week, you’re hoping that one can find paydirt. Although Harris was a high-end RB2 nearly every week early in the season, he’s now in low-end RB3 territory. Since returning from injury, Harris has four goal-line touches to Stevenson’s three. They each have exactly 21 carries and two targets. Harris has played 47 snaps while Stevenson has lined up for 44. This is becoming a nightmare for fantasy football, and the days of Harris being a plug-and-play RB2 are long gone.
