Photo: USA Today Sports

Some fantasy managers already know their fate. Others need this week to secure their spot in the playoffs. We’re down to the most critical part of the season, with the same information we get every week, but the decisions feel heavier. I’ve got some insight on a few players as we set lineups for Week 14, with a few lessons I learned from last week.

Quarterback: Russell Wilson, Seahawks

Week 13 Results: (Projected) 20.1, (Actual) 17.7

It’s good to see Russell Wilson playing better. He’s not back to being a QB1, but his play in Week 10 and the team’s dwindling (non-existent) playoff hopes were signaling the end of an era in Seattle. To close out the season on such a low note would’ve been tough to see, but Wilson’s at least back to league average. I dove a bit deeper into his numbers along with a look ahead and came away with some confidence in him as a high-end QB2 to close out the year.

Advice Moving Forward:

In the words of LL Cool J, “Don’t call it a comeback.” However, Wilson’s metrics are trending back to his early-season baseline, and his matchups are favorable down the stretch. At worst, he’s a high-end QB2 for the rest of the season.

Wilson was an outright disaster in his return. His boxscore was terrible enough, but I’ll throw some gas on the fire. He was held scoreless for the first time since, and his completion percentage was his worst in two seasons. He also hit a career-low in EPA per play (-0.361). But the thing I kept coming back to was his inaccuracy.

Wilson’s been top-4 in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) the last five consecutive seasons. It seemed inconceivable that he’d be unable to find his pass-catchers. Even the commentators noted how many of his throws were too high during the game. The simplest explanation is Wilson’s 19-hour rehab regiment didn’t do the trick. He needed more time to heal. And, over the last few weeks, that seems to be the case.

I’m not expecting perfection, just progress. And Wilson’s progressed. His efficiency is back to league average, and his accuracy numbers have steadily risen. Even better, it hasn’t come at the expense of Seattle’s passing volume.

Despite all of Pete Carroll’s blustering about establishing the run, they’re still passing more than they were at the start of the season. Regardless, he’s coming more in line with his play earlier in the season. We’d just like the efficiency to match the fantasy output.

This week he’s got the Texans followed by a run of the Rams, Bears, and Lions through the playoffs. All are at or below the league average in EPA per dropback allowed, and three are preferred targets for opposing offenses. Wilson’s still adding points on the ground (16.3 rushing YPG), and his receivers are healthy. Outside of Gerald Everett causing multiple turnovers, Wilson is (at worst) a high-end QB2 heading into the playoffs.

Running Back: Javonte Williams, Broncos

Week 13 Results: (Projected) 18.1, (Actual) 29.8

We got what we wanted. We got a game with Javonte Williams as the lone back for Denver. And, he didn’t disappoint. He got over the century mark on the ground while leading all Broncos’ skill players in targets. Given Teddy Bridgewater's injury and lack of aggression, his usage might be more of a feature than a bug. But Williams is still second in missed tackles forced despite having 100 fewer carries and top-20 in YPRR. I can’t wait to draft him in 2022, but not wholly convinced he’ll be a workhorse to close out the season.

Advice Moving Forward:

Williams is a fringe top-16 back the rest of the way. Williams should be squarely in the RB1 discussion if Gordon is slightly limited. However, Gordon’s production to date should force a timeshare once he returns.

It’s fair to wonder if Williams should be the workhorse for Denver after such a performance in a primetime game. On top of his rushing production, he was one yard short of their leading receiver. He’s made his case for the 2022 season, but it’s not like Melvin Gordon hasn’t been a factor in the Broncos’ offense.

Gordon’s still got the juice for a 28-year old running back. And not just the speed, but the vision to make up for his declining power as a runner. Gordon has had a higher success rate (rate of rushes with a positive expected points value) than Williams in nine of the eleven games the two have played together. And this has come with Gordon seeing seven or more defenders in the box on 77.0% of his plays (Williams, 60.0%). But Williams has clearly been the better receiver of the two.

I’ve mentioned targets per route run TPRR, but it helps gauge quarterback intent for those unfamiliar. If you’re running even slightly fewer routes and still earning targets, your value to the offense is greater. Williams has had a higher in 70.0% of the games both have been targeted. Yards per route run (data provided by Pro Football Focus) gives us a sense of efficiency in its basic form. And again, Williams has outperformed Gordon throughout most of the season. The two complement each other perfectly, and therein lies the problem.

Williams had a 52.1% success rate with a 22.5% target share Sunday night. His highest marks of the season. But the combination of Williams and Gordon has been instrumental in the team’s success. The two combined for nearly half of Denver’s first downs in their win over the Chargers. Gordon led the way on the ground, while Williams led the team in receiving. If Gordon misses more time, Williams is a no-doubt top-12 option. However, if Gordon returns without limitation, expect Williams as the 1A at best, given Gordon’s production this season.

Wide Receiver: Hunter Renfrow, Raiders

Week 13 Results: (Projected) 16.3, (Actual) 19.2

Over the last six weeks, the Raiders’ offense has been a rollercoaster both off the field and on it. Hunter Renfrow hasn’t eclipsed 100 yards in a single game since his rookie year. He’s now done it twice in back-to-back games. My inclination was to put him as a WR1 with the Raiders still in the playoff hunt, but I’m pumping the brakes on that idea after looking into it more.

Advice Moving Forward:

Renfrow’s been a mid-range WR2 all season. However, Darren Waller’s injury likely explains the recent surge in production. Renfrow can still be a high-end WR2 the rest of the way, but his on-field usage with Waller back can give way to lower-scoring weeks.

Renfrow has been a late-round gem, as he’s scored double-digit points in all but two games this season. He’s even influenced other wide receivers in the game with his route running. However, his bump in targets just happens to coincide with Darren Waller’s absence.

Renfrow’s target share and TPRR have been steady all season. He had averaged an 18.5% target share up until Week 10. However, in Week 9, Waller’s targets began to tick back up, and the offense started to feature Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake more. It wasn’t an indication of any decline in Renfrow’s play. The Raiders needed to find other solutions after Henry Ruggs’ departure. However, Waller ran routes in the same area of the field as Renfrow, and he became the beneficiary of the tight-end's absence.

I’d believe in a role change for Renfrow if Rich Bisaccia was using him differently. But he didn’t even see a swing in red-zone usage.

It doesn’t change who he is or his value to the team. The point is to reset our expectations for Renfrow moving forward. Kenyan Drake and his 9.5% target share are gone, but Waller may be back this week. Given the Raiders’ playoff hopes, Renfrow will be a critical piece and a weekly WR2 fantasy option. However, we can’t expect the last two weeks to continue, given his lack of red-zone work and the team’s upcoming matchups.