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A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Here is the player who received the most votes:
- Chris Carson -- by a notable margin
And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Chris Carson, Seattle | Consensus Rankings RB17 | Consensus Projections RB14
Sigmund Bloom: Rashaad Penny is Carson's only significant competition for touches and he's coming off of offseason knee surgery. Carson is going to be a clear lead back and he's a proven producer. He should be going a round or more earlier than his paltry ADP as a lead back in a Russell Wilson-led offense that added Gabe Jackson, one of the best guards in the game, via trade this offseason. His outlook is similar to backs going in the late first/early second round.
Victoria Geary: With each fantasy season that passes, Chris Carson is severely underrated and underpriced. He is one of the most consistent running backs in the league, averaging 15.2 PPR points per game and 9 total touchdowns over the last three seasons. A pass-catching running back on an efficient offense with a coaching staff that loves to run the ball should not be going this late in drafts. Carson is a set-and-forget, high-end RB2 with RB1 upside every single week.
Jeff Haseley: Chris Carson has scored nine touchdowns in each of the last three years and Seattle decided in the offseason to extend his contract. He'll be the primary ball carrier for the Seahawks this season and he has shown in the past that he can handle a season with 250+ carries. He's on the path for another top-20 season especially if injuries don't derail his chances.
Ryan Hester: A player of Carson's caliber and projected workload shouldn't be going this low. Seattle's offense might not be an elite unit, but a clear-cut starting running back being drafted this late is surprising. Carson isn't a "sexy" pick in that he's not going to break off 70-yard runs or catch 80+ passes. But he'll outperform this draft position.
Ryan Weisse: Getting Carson as the RB21 is akin to stealing. Seattle is a high-volume rushing team and said they want to run the ball more in 2021. His competition for carries is Rashaad Penny and DeeJay Dallas, so he has no competition for carries. Carson could be looking at 250+ attempts along with another 50 targets in the passing game. That same volume made him the RB12 in 21019.
Jason Wood: Chris Carson had a strange 2020. His rushing productivity fell from prior norms, but his receiving numbers improved commensurately. In 10 healthy games last year, he was on pace for 1,400+ yards and 12 touchdowns. While the missed time is a concern, Seattle's decision to re-sign him to a significant multi-year contract belies those fears. The organization values him as a centerpiece of their balance offense, as evidenced by the new contract and lack of competition in the offseason. Fantasy production comes from a combination of ability and opportunity, and Carson is overflowing with both.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Gus Edwards, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB47 | Consensus Projections RB41
Anthony Amico: In five games played together without Mark Ingram in 2020, Edwards averaged 11.6 rushes to J.K. Dobbins' 13. This offense breeds efficient running due to the ever-present threat of Lamar Jackson. They don't throw the ball a ton to the RB, but this price gap among Raven backs makes no sense. My latest projections update has Edwards and Dobbins just 16 places apart -- a little over half of the current gap in their ADP.
James Brimacombe: Edwards is a solid part of the Ravens run game and through three years in Baltimore has 137, 133, and 144 rushing attempts, and it doesn't faze him what running backs are on the roster he always continues to have a role. Edwards finished the 2020 season as RB28 despite sharing carries with JK Dobbins, and I think a similar role or maybe even an increased role is likely in 2021.
Chad Parsons: Edwards saw 153 touches in 2020 even with Mark Ingram in the mix as the RB3 for 80 additional touches. J.K. Dobbins is the expected 1A, but Edwards' downhill bruising style is a perfect fit with Lamar Jackson creating inside running lanes. Edwards's floor was he accrued a year ago and he finished inside the top-30 running backs. Edwards is is a standalone running back where there is a league-tilting upside with J.K. Dobbins out but also RB2/Flex utility even with a healthy depth chart around him.
Ryan Weisse: There cannot be much justification in Edwards going off the board 30 spots behind JK Dobbins. Last season, he was the RB36, and that was with Mark Ingram still on the team. He also carried the ball more than Dobbins and scored six touchdowns. Baltimore is going to run the ball as much and as well as any team in the league, and Gus should see 150+ carries again. Finding that kind of volume in the 12th round is amazing.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City | Consensus Rankings RB15 | Consensus Projections RB17
Pat Fitzmaurice: Edwards-Helaire had a disappointing rookie season in a lot of ways. His usage tapered off after he was deployed as a workhorse for the first six games of the season, the Chiefs stopped using him at the goal line after a few early-season stuffs, and he wasn't used in the passing game as much as we'd hoped. Still, Edwards-Helaire plays in the NFL's best offense, has a versatile skill set, and is the clear No. 1 on the depth chart. Just a small uptick in goal-line usage/efficiency and passing-down work could lead to big numbers.
Victoria Geary: Draft capital and landing spot catapulted Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire to a top-10 ADP last year. His injury woes coupled with a PPR RB22 finish left many fantasy managers feeling burned, which is why his current ADP is such a value. Edwards-Helaire was horribly inefficient around the goal line, scoring only one touchdown on 9 total carries inside the 5-yard line. With more opportunities, he can and will improve on his 2020 stats of 217 touches, 5 total touchdowns, and 1,100 yards from scrimmage. Grabbing a Chiefs running back at a Round 3 price is a no-brainer.
Ryan Hester: Edwards-Helaire started much better than he finished in 2020, but there are reasons for optimism entering this year. First, he had limited time to learn the system and condition in a COVID-altered preseason. Second, he was thrust into a lead role late in the preseason when Damien Williams opted out. This season, Kansas City knows what it has at the position, and they can plan a more expanded scope for the player in whom they invested a first-round pick in 2020. If there's one thing long-time fantasy footballers know, it's that Andy Reid's RB1 is a valuable commodity.
Chad Parsons: Edwards-Helaire is on the success track after his rookie season. Subtract LeVeon Bell and Sammy Watkins and the secondary running backs and wide receivers are weaker than a year ago. Edwards-Helaire, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill are the clear top-3 weapons for Patrick Mahomes II, yet his lead running back is priced outside of the top-12, color me surprised.
Antonio Gibson, Washington | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB15
Pat Fitzmaurice: Gibson had 33 rushing attempts during his college career at Memphis, so it was widely assumed he'd carve out a niche as a passing-down back in the NFL before eventually getting more work as a runner. Instead, he became Washington's primary runner and ceded the passing-down role to J.D. McKissic. No matter: Gibson was electric as a rookie, and there's more where that came from. The Washington offense should be much-improved thanks to a quarterback upgrade, and if Gibson gets even a small bump in passing-game usage, he could finish in the top 10 at the position.
Victoria Geary: Antonio Gibson finished as the 2020 PPR RB13 on only 170 total carries, a whopping 75 fewer than the average total number of carries for the top-10 running backs (245). Though he only played an average of 43% of total snaps, the Washington coaching staff began to put their trust in Gibson after their bye week. After his week 8 bye, Gibson finished as a top-10 running back three weeks in a row prior to injuring his toe in Week 13. In the week prior to his injury, Gibson played on his highest snap percentage of the season at 65%, tallying 20 rushing attempts for 115 yards and 5.75 yards-per-carry. Gibson’s efficiency may regress to the league average this year, but his bump in overall receiving and rushing usage will counter any potential efficiency loss.
Jeff Haseley: In 2020, Gibson had a 62% chance of scoring a touchdown in any game where he had 5+ carries. Only six running backs had a greater percentage than that (Derrick Henry, David Johnson, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara). Gibson has shown that he is a touchdown scorer with 11 rushing touchdowns in only 406 snaps. Expect him to easily top 200-250 carries, plus he should reach 40 receptions and earn a second consecutive year of double-digit touchdowns.
Jordan McNamara: Antonio Gibson had a remarkable rookie season. Gibson entered the NFL after playing more wide receiver in college than running back. He benefitted from the Derrius Guice cut and played well enough to make Adrian Peterson expendable. Gibson had 12 rushes per game in 2020 yet only 3.1 targets per game. Gibson's receiving profile is the type of trait that could propel a major breakout in 2021. The addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick should raise the floor of the Washington offense and Gibson can be a big beneficiary.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas | Consensus Rankings RB34 | Consensus Projections RB35
Anthony Amico: Drake was signed to good money -- two years and $11 million -- indicating that he will be involved in this offense. It sounds as though that will primarily be as a pass-catcher, giving Drake a nice weekly floor at his current price. If anything happens to Josh Jacobs, he's looking at an elite rushing load as well, including a bunch of looks at the goal-line.
James Brimacombe: Drake was somewhat thought of as a disappointment in the 2020 season and yet still managed to score 10 rushing touchdowns. He now signs with the Raiders for big money in what looks like a backup role behind Josh Jacobs and his ADP tumbles. The Raiders are always a team that comes at a discount in fantasy football and Drake's current discount is just too steep to ignore.
Ryan Weisse: There hasn't been a lot good said about Drake and his landing spot, but it might be better than you think. Last season, Las Vegas used gave running backs not named Josh Jacobs 125 carries and 65 targets. These are far from the number Drake received in Arizona, but they are also far from him wasting away. Yes, the offensive line is bad, but they paid Drake handsomely and they still have no real wide receivers. Drake will see the field often.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati | Consensus Rankings RB11 | Consensus Projections RB8
Phil Alexander: Mixon was tracking as the RB8 in PPR leagues prior to a murky foot injury ending his season in Week 6. In his last two healthy games, Mixon combined for 14 targets -- an indication he would finally be used in the all-purpose role he seemed destined for coming out of Oklahoma. With the injury seemingly behind him, the Bengals are once again ready to saddle up Mixon as their workhorse, only now Giovanni Bernard isn't around to replace him on obvious passing downs. Cincinnati has the weapons to produce a top-5 passing offense as soon as this season, which puts Mixon's ceiling close to overall RB1 territory.
Anthony Amico: The biggest thorn in Mixon's side for years has been Giovani Bernard, and his departure to Tampa Bay has opened up snaps and targets that he has never seen before. Mixon averaged a little over four targets per game, with Bernard averaging another 3.3 of his own in games played by Mixon. Cincy plays at a high tempo and throws the ball a ton under Zac Taylor, making Mixon a top-five running back who folks are missing out on because he's burned them in the past.
Ryan Hester: Mixon has proven that he can be a three-down back, and the team has shown that they believe it too. Mixon's workload relegated Giovani Bernard to full-time backup status in past seasons. Now, with Bernard gone, Mixon becomes a player that will rarely leave the field. His primary backup is Semaje Perine, who has a combined 76 carries in the past three seasons. Behind Perine is Trayveon Williams, who has 26 carries across 15 career games in two seasons. Cincinnati drafted a back, but they waited until the sixth round to do it. And they took a player, Chris Evans, who is a project. Cincinnati also projects to be a better offense this season with a full year of Joe Burrow, a better line, and the addition of JaMarr Chase.
Trey Sermon, San Francisco | Consensus Rankings RB37 | Consensus Projections RB46
Sigmund Bloom: Sermon may require some patience as Raheem Mostert should be the at least the co-lead back to open the season, but Mostert isn't known for his durability and Kyle Shanahan won't push the issue and overwork Mostert in light of his injury history, giving Sermon the opportunity to assert himself in this backfield picture. Jeff Wilson is out for at least the first month of the season to extend that window, and if Mostert goes down before Wilson returns, Sermon could stake a claim to a lead back job in a top rushing offense - that could get even better if Trey Lance takes over at quarterback during the season.
Pat Fitzmaurice: The Shanahan zone running scheme has worked year after year after year. Mike and Kyle Shanahan's scheme has turned jobbers such as Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, and Alfred Morris into immensely valuable fantasy assets, if only for a year or two. And when true studs (Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis) were plugged into the scheme? Pure magic. Yes, the 49ers' backfield is messy. But Sermon's talents made him Matt Waldman's No. 1 running back in this rookie class, and the 49ers traded up to get him. If you draft Sermon at his current ADP and the 49ers use a multi-pronged approach at running back, fine. You've paid a committee-back price for a committee back. But if Sermon seizes control of the backfield and turns out to be another Terrell Davis, you've just rolled Yahtzee with a ninth-round pick.
Matt Waldman: Sermon was the 2021 Rookie Scouting Portfolio's No. 1 runner in its pre-draft publication. He's a shifty back with great footwork, starter-caliber short-area quickness, excellent contact balance, and terrific decision-making and vision. His tape at Oklahoma and Ohio State has been consistently high-level work even if his statistical production doesn't reflect it. Expect Sermon to have the clearest path to feature touches in 2022 for the NFL's leading ground game and a real shot to back up Raheem Mostert this year. Durability has been an issue with 49ers' backs and a Mostert injury could open the door for Sermon much earlier.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB10 | Consensus Projections RB13
Andy Hicks: Nick Chubb finished 2020 as the ninth-ranked fantasy back and that is roughly where he is being drafted so far this year. He missed four games. That should be factored in surely. On a points per game basis, he would have finished fourth among the elite backs. This is despite catching the ball 50% less than all his compatriots outside Derrick Henry. Henry is a good comparison for Chubb. Both are imposing backs who can dominate a game. They have a knack for reaching the endzone and have a high yards-per-rushing attempt. Chubb is ready to move up an echelon, and by the season's end, should be in Henry fantasy territory.
Matt Waldman: Chubb was fantasy's RB5 during the second half of 2020 and RB3 during the first three weeks of the season. Despite missing three games, and sharing time with Kareem Hunt, Chubb still earned RB11 production behind an excellent offensive line that helped him earn 5.6 yards per carry. Only Aaron Jones approached that mark last year with a 5.5 YPC mark. While Hunt doubled Chubb's reception totals last year, it's clear that Cleveland can run the ball against anyone. If Chubb stays healthy for a full 16 games--allowing for the likelihood of a week off with a 17-week schedule now in place, he should earn top-five production. Once a player shows he has the skill, surrounding talent, and system to produce top-five volume, that's safe enough for me to make him one of my top-three backs even if others may have higher ceilings. Safe early picks have value.
Mike Davis, Atlanta | Consensus Rankings RB23 | Consensus Projections RB22
Jordan McNamara: Mike Davis was RB12 last season in Carolina despite playing in relief of Christian McCaffrey. He has every opportunity in 2021 to start in Atlanta. New Head Coach Arthur Smith oversaw a highly efficient offense in Tennessee that saw major breakouts from Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and A.J. Brown. Davis offers a receiving profile beyond anything Henry has done in his career and could present a more versatile option. He is the best shot at a top 8 finish from the running backs outside the top 24 of the position.
Chad Parsons: The biggest variable with Davis is if Atlanta added a notable back by Week 1. LeVeon Bell and Todd Gurley are the two main options floating out there as of mid-June and if there is another Leonard Fournette-type situation on another depth chart in August, that would add to the potential list. Otherwise, Davis is a clear starter for a team with a questionable defense and quality passing game. Davis is one of the easier 'at his price' bets of the position.
A.J. Dillon, Green Bay | Consensus Rankings RB43 | Consensus Projections RB49
Andy Hicks: A.J. Dillon was only unleashed for one game last year. The result was 124 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Jamaal Williams leaves for Detroit. That is a lot of touches up for grabs. Aaron Jones was already heavily utilized so Dillon is the logical choice. The situation regarding Aaron Rodgers is still up in the air, but either way, Dillon will be a great choice later in your draft. If Rodgers returns, the running game won’t face stacked boxes. If he leaves or sits out, the running game will need to be dominant. Dillon is much more suited to this role than Jones.
Chad Parsons: Aaron Jones was brought back in a surprising free-agent move, but Jamaal Williams is gone, who collected 150 touches - while Jones was the clear 1A - last season. Expect Dillon to be the 1B, not merely a handcuff option on this depth chart with 200+ touches in play even without an injury. If Jones were to miss games, Dillon is a top-10 option with upside from there, for that cross-section of the season.
Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers | Consensus Rankings RB9 | Consensus Projections RB7
Phil Alexander: This may be narrative-driven, but it's too easy to connect the dots between the Chargers hiring former longtime Saints quarterbacks coach Joe Lombardi as offensive coordinator and a huge year as a pass-catcher for Ekeler. For most of the last decade, Lombardi helped oversee an offense predicated on spreading defenses out, throwing lots of passes, and frequently utilizing quick throws. Justin Herbert is no Drew Brees in the screen game (and Ekeler no Alvin Kamara), but they're capable of pulling off a close enough approximation to catapult Ekeler towards top-5 fantasy numbers in PPR formats.
Drew Davenport: Who knows how it would have gone for Ekeler had the Chargers not lost Tyrod Taylor right out of the gate. But the fact is, in games Justin Herbert played last year when Ekeler was healthy, he averaged over 19 PPR points per game which would've ranked as the RB6 at season's end. His current ADP isn't heinous, but it is too low for the potential that Ekeler possesses with this exciting offense behind a revamped offensive line. His upside reaches all the way to the top of the position, and that makes him a value play.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas | Consensus Rankings RB20 | Consensus Projections RB18
Drew Davenport: The signing of Kenyan Drake has tanked Jacobs' ADP and it isn't clear why. Last year the other running backs not named Jacobs accounted for 69 targets, while Jacobs only had 45. He managed barely two catches per game and commanded less than three targets per game. Nevertheless, he finished as the PPR RB8 and the RB15 in points per game. Why would the arrival of a receiving back change these numbers drastically? Drake will surely be involved, but there is no sign that Jacobs will lose goal-line work or see any change in his target opportunities. There is room for both running backs to co-exist and Jacobs shouldn't see a major role change. His depressed ADP is an opportunity to capitalize on other's fears about the roles in this backfield.
Jeff Haseley: Josh Jacobs is still the top running back in Las Vegas despite the money spent to bring in Kenyan Drake. Think of Drake as a high-cost insurance policy and situational role player. Jacobs still had eight top-15 weekly ranks last season. The presence of Drake is an opportunity to select Jacobs at a discount. Take advantage of it.
David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB19
Matt Waldman: Montgomery was a strong finisher in 2020 behind an offensive line that needed additional help. The Bears addressed the line with two early picks and Justin Fields' ability to run will create dilemmas for box defenders that didn’t occur in the past. Opponents cannot cheat against the running back position on run downs due to Fields and Montgomery is good enough to make them pay. He's a creative runner with excellent contact balance and dynamic movement. If he can become a little more efficient with his feet, he could become an elite back. He's a notch below the top runners but that's higher than some rate him. Those folks value speed more than quickness and they wrote off Montgomery's acceleration as a rookie without understanding that rookies often appear slower during their first year acclimation period than they actually will be as their careers unfold.
Jason Wood: David Montgomery may be the most misunderstood asset in fantasy football right now. Fantasy managers are fickle and appear to be holding a grudge over a disappointing start to 2020. Montgomery was so ineffective to open the season, the coaches made him inactive for a game to send a message. He got the message, loud and clear. After returning from the inactive, Montgomery was the second-best running back in the NFL behind Derrick Henry. He was on a 309-carry, 1,595-yard, 18-touchdown rushing pace in the final months, averaging an astounding 5.2 yards per rush. As if that weren't enough, he was on a 64-catch, 603-yard, 3-touchdown receiving pace. How many backs have legitimate 2,000-yard potential and when are they ever drafted this late? Grab him now before other analysts wake up to their mispricing.
Javonte Williams, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB32 | Consensus Projections RB29
Sigmund Bloom: The Broncos had a clear priority to get Williams, trading up for him in the second round, which means it's a matter of when not if he becomes the lead back ahead of Melvin Gordon. It might not be until 2022, but at least one beat writer has opined that it could happen in Week 1. The range of possibilities for Williams more than justifies his modest cost, which is likely to rise greatly if he creates any buzz in training camp. There's also the possibility of Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson getting traded to Denver, which would spike Williams' value.
Andy Hicks: It is easy to look at the depth chart in Denver and assume that Melvin Gordon will be the starter all season. Depending on the progress rookie Javonte Williams makes in training camp and preseason. Williams may be the starter sooner rather than later. Gordon plays much older than he is. If it wasn’t for his salary cap hit would have been released after one season in Denver. The draft price of Williams makes it an easy decision to take the rookie rather than the underwhelming experienced back. His draft price will shoot up with positive training camp news and even the possibility of Gordon being released or traded.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
James Conner, Arizona | Consensus Rankings RB34 | Consensus Projections RB28
Drew Davenport: The coaching staff in Arizona likely saw enough of Edmonds in his limited time as the main ball carrier when Kenyan Drake was out with injuries. It isn't that Edmonds was terrible, but it seemed as though he was better suited to a role that limits his touches. This is backed up by the James Conner signing. It remains a concern whether he can stay on the field, but if he does it wouldn't be surprising to see him take over the role that Drake vacated when he left in free agency. Drake saw the fourth-most carries in the red zone and the third-most carries inside the 5-yard line. If Conner assumes even a 75% share of this role he's set up to vastly outperform his ADP.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB16 | Consensus Projections RB20
Andy Hicks: Sometimes it is staggering that second-year improvement isn’t factored into highly drafted rookie running backs and wide receivers. Especially off the covid year. In the case of J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore realized he was the future after Mark Ingram wasn’t used in the second half of the year. Dobbins excelled with 6.0 yards per rushing attempt and seven touchdowns down the stretch. His biggest detraction is that he may not see much action in the passing game. Who will here? Dobbins isn’t going to be Christian McCaffery, but he will improve. With the additions to the receiving group and the presence of Lamar Jackson, Dobbins should dominate. A third-round draft price is a steal.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB26 | Consensus Projections RB26
Phil Alexander: Our current site projections have Etienne finishing with 48 receptions, which might be low by a 1.5x multiplier. The Jaguars are going to be awful defensively and Etienne was drafted in the first round to reprise his role from Clemson as a YAC monster for Trevor Lawrence. He only needs to be on the short side of a 60/40 rushing split with James Robinson to cruise past his ADP-implied value.
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB31 | Consensus Projections RB32
Phil Alexander: Why are fantasy gamers so quick to write off Fournette's Super Bowl run with Tampa Bay, which included four playoff starts and averages of 20.5 touches, 4.5 receptions, 112 yards from scrimmage, and one touchdown per game? You know who won't be so quick to write off the boost Fournette gave the Buccaneers on their way to a championship? Tom Brady. That guy likes to win and has the ultimate say in which of his teammates receives the most playing time. Besides, Fournette is still only 26 years old and remains one of the elite size/speed running backs in the NFL. He's a bargain as the lead back on one of the best teams in the league, even if he cedes a few series each game to Ronald Jones II.
Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB24 | Consensus Projections RB23
Jason Wood: Gaskin has durability questions, and that has to be factored into ADP. But even accounting for spotty injury history, he's being under drafted relative to his potential. Gasking was on a 210+ carry pace before contracting Covid-19 and then returned to a 210+ carry pace after recovering. He averaged 4.7 yards per rush upon his return, and the Dolphins did next to nothing in the offseason to bring in viable competition for the lead role.
Darrell Henderson, LA Rams | Consensus Rankings RB48 | Consensus Projections RB50
Ryan Weisse: Everyone loves Cam Akers, as they should, but don't ignore what Darrell Henderson brings to the table. Last season, Henderson had 138 carries to Akers' 145. The exit of Malcolm Brown frees up over 100 carries and 33 targets, plus he scored five touchdowns last season. While Akers will likely take most of that, Henderson is going to see a bump in all three categories too. He doesn't have the RB1 ceiling that Akers does, but at the end of the 12th Round, Henderson could be a fantasy RB3 and that is a great value this late in the draft.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB22 | Consensus Projections RB24
Jeff Haseley: Kareem Hunt is a touchdown scorer with a track record that includes 39 scores in 51 games. There is a 76% chance he scores at least once in any game he plays in. That's remarkable! He may be the second fiddle behind Nick Chubb, but this dog can hunt, finishing with a ranking no lower than 10th in seasons where he plays 9 games or more.
Zack Moss, Buffalo | Consensus Rankings RB42 | Consensus Projections RB42
James Brimacombe: Moss had an average rookie season in Buffalo with 576 total yards and 5 total touchdowns in 13 games played. The fear in Buffalo with running backs is always going to be, How many touchdowns in the red zone does Josh Allen snipe? With Allen coming into the elite quarterback conversation I think the Bills start to keep him in the pocket more and I think that opens up Moss for some higher touchdown opportunities.
Raheem Mostert, San Francisco | Consensus Rankings RB30 | Consensus Projections RB31
Drew Davenport: Anyone who watched Mostert in the first few weeks of 2020 couldn't help but notice how he exploded off the screen in the San Francisco run scheme. His inability to stay healthy last year has drafters bailing on him for the rookie Trey Sermon. And while it isn't a bad idea to hedge a Mostert injury with Sermon, if the talented veteran can stay on the field there is every indication that this is what coach Kyle Shanahan would prefer. Of course, there is risk in drafting Mostert, but when he is being drafted as a low-end RB3 it isn't costing much to see if he can hold on to the starting job in a backfield that oozes fantasy points.
Latavius Murray, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB46 | Consensus Projections RB39
Jason Wood: Latavius Murray hasn't ranked lower than 34th among fantasy backs since his rookie year in 2014. While the 30-year-old has never been a top-12 player, he's ranked as high as 13th when given a prominent role. In New Orleans, he's the clear B-back to Alvin Kamara's A-role, but even as a part-timer he finished 30th and 33rd the last two seasons. But we've also seen him produce as an elite top-10 back in the weeks Alvin Kamara has been hampered. Murray should be one of the first backup running backs off the board, yet his ADP suggests otherwise.
Tony Pollard, Dallas | Consensus Rankings RB45 | Consensus Projections RB47
Sigmund Bloom: After watching Ezekiel Elliott wear down at the end of the season, we should all have Pollard on our target list for the second half of our draft. Pollard had more juice than Elliott and if Elliott were to go down, Pollard would immediately have first-round pick value in one of the most potent offenses in the league. Elliott could return to form behind a healthier offensive line and render Pollard a mere injury upside play, but Pollard could also demand more touches as one of the most explosive players in the offense, and if Elliott gets hurt, Pollard will make your fantasy season.
Jamaal Williams, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB40 | Consensus Projections RB37
Matt Waldman: Anthony Lynn referred to Williams as his "A-Back" in this offense. All one has to do is look at the outputs of Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler to see that Gordon earned the edge in rushing attempts, yardage, and rushing scores while Ekeler dominated as a receiver. Williams lacked Gordon's juice that we saw in college, but Gordon has never emerged as a big-play runner in the NFL and seems to lack that advertised game-breaking speed. Williams was classified as sluggish but has incrementally gotten quicker and he's a powerful runner with smart decision-making and does excellent work in the passing game. I'm not convinced about Swift's passing-down prowess. Williams is a better blocker and a good route runner. Swift’s route-running has had lapses with his breaks the past five years. Williams could earn the lead role and enough receiving opportunities to deliver as a fantasy starter.