READER'S GUIDE
The end of the 2020 season is upon us. In this final edition of #Trendspotting for this year, let's take a deep dive into a handful of important trends, data points, and personnel changes that will factor into DFS lineup decisions this weekend.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Tweets of the Week
- Addressing Injuries
Note: Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam to keep up-to-date with any and all tweets regarding updates to this article, or any other piece I write.
TWEETS OF THE WEEK
Wolford can move a bit. He ran for 1200+ yards (with sack yardage included) and 16 TDs his final two years at Wake.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) December 29, 2020
He ran for 20 yards/game in the AAF.
McVay is going to have this dude booting and scooting. https://t.co/mFX1zC1yE1
Commentary and Action Items:
- The penultimate game of the 2020 regular season for the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams will decide each respective team's playoff fate. Unfortunately, Los Angeles lost their starting quarterback, Jared Goff, to a thumb injury that required surgery. In his place, John Wolford will assume the starting role under center for the Rams in their quest to secure a spot in the postseason. As Rich Hribar mentions, Wolford is a mobile quarterback that we should expect to scramble throughout the game on Sunday afternoon. In his final season at Wake Forest, Wolford tallied 749 rushing yards (after removing sack yardage, which is counted as negative rushing yards for the quarterback), and he carried the ball over 100 times on designed run plays. Sean McVay made a name for himself as a young and innovating offensive mind; this weekend will be the true test of that genius. Los Angeles' offense already features a steady volume of play-action bootlegs and roll-outs, which will get Wolford in space with the opportunity to scramble. Additionally, we should expect a handful of designed runs for Wolford, which will be critical to his fantasy value. On DraftKings, John Wolford sits at just $4,900. Given Wolford's expected rushing volume, which provides a strong floor and ceiling of fantasy production for quarterbacks, he is viable in contests of all formats at this bottom-dollar price tag.
Going to keep a thread here for noteworthy milestones/bonuses players can reach in Week 17
— Anthony Amico (@amicsta) December 31, 2020
Justin Jefferson - Needs 47 receiving yards for Vikings rookie record, 111 for league record
Tyler Lockett - 36 receiving yards from 200k, 2 TDs from 100k (also adds to 2021 base sal)
RBs close to 1,000 yards, a benchmark that players and coaches seem to actually care about:
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 30, 2020
Josh Jacobs (976)
Nick Chubb (959)
Ezekiel Elliott (937)
Alvin Kamara (932)
Kenyan Drake (919)
Jonathan Taylor (916)
Ronald Jones II (900)
Commentary and Action Items:
- A critical feature of Week 17 fantasy football is the motivation factor. Some teams either have one eye on the postseason, with their short-term focus on remaining healthy before the most important stretch of games. Other teams have one eye on the golf course, with players longing for the offseason after a grueling 16-game season. One way to approximate a player or team's motivation factor entering their final regular-season game is by identifying what players are approaching important benchmarks for their full-season statistics-- meaningful or arbitrary. Above, Anthony Amico and Hayden Winks have done the Lord's work and aggregated the bulk of the benchmarks to keep an eye on entering Week 17.
- At running back, the most-likely players within earshot of the 1,000-yard mark whose coaches may focus on getting them to that benchmark are Alvin Kamara and Jonathan Taylor. Last week, in the Saints' Christmas Day blowout of the Minnesota Vikings, Alvin Kamara tallied six rushing touchdowns, tying the all-time record. Sean Payton sent him back out onto the field in a goal-to-go situation with under two minutes left in a 45-33 game. Payton is clearly aware of these benchmarks and milestones. As 6.5-point favorites over the Carolina Panthers, one would suspect that Payton will give Kamara the lion's share of the carries until he registers at least 68 rushing yards and secures his first career 1,000-yard season.
- Next, in Indianapolis, the Colts have a must-win game on their hands when they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts are prohibitive favorites to win this game, as the betting market projects this to be a 14-point game, and this should afford Frank Reich the ability to call a run-heavy offensive attack. Jonathan Taylor, the team's second-round draft pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, needs 84 yards to finish his rookie campaign with 1,000 yards on the ground. Taylor has posted no less than 74 rushing yards in any of his last 5 outings, and there is no reason to suspect with such a milestone on the horizon that he will fall short of the 84-yard day he needs to get into quadruple-digits for the season.
- Taking things up a notch, Derrick Henry needs 223 rushing yards on Sunday afternoon to reach 2,000 yards on the season. On Sunday, the Titans an effective must-win game at hand when they travel down to Houston to take on the reeling Texans' defense. Typically, a 223-yard performance would be an unfathomable feat, but Henry ran for 211 yards just 3 weeks ago against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Although he should not be expected to reach this gaudy total, if he is strong early on in the contest against Houston's horrific defense, he may hear his number called more often than he otherwise would have, if not for such a lofty milestone at hand. Derrick Henry is always a premier option at running back, but this weekend his ceiling is especially high given the elite company he can join if he registers a 2,000-yard season.
Michael Gallup's resurgence is terribly underreported. His string of outstanding performances over the past four weeks has vaulted him to WR34 in total fantasy scoring.
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) December 29, 2020
With strong vitals (12.9 aDOT, 14.3 ypc, 36.4 RZ TGT%), he will be a tremendous bargain buy in 2021 drafts.
Commentary and Action Items:
- Above, Brad notes Michael Gallup's strong finish to the 2020 season, focusing on his upside for the 2021 season. However, we can capitalize immediately upon his under-the-radar surge in recent weeks. Gallup has recorded at least 8 targets in 3 out of his last 5 games and has 4 touchdowns across that stretch. Gallup has posted two of his three highest receiving totals this month. Now, in a matchup against the New York Giants' 24th-ranked pass defense, according to DVOA allowed, he has a great opportunity to cap his 2020 season with another stellar performance. At just $5,000 on DraftKings, Gallup projects to be one of the strongest salary-saving pass-catchers on the 2020 regular season's final main slate of games.
ADDRESSING INJURIES
As referenced earlier, motivation is a critical factor in Week 17 fantasy football decision-making. Many players will rest to heal up for the playoffs, see limited action to avoid injury, or sit out entirely to get a headstart on the offseason this weekend. Here, we will keep tabs on those players and analyze how each absence will impact the landscape of the final week of the 2020 fantasy football regular season.
Due to an unexpected family emergency, Dalvin Cook left the Minnesota Vikings earlier this week to head down to Florida to grieve with his loved ones. As a result, Cook will be unavailable for the Vikings this weekend against the Detroit Lions. In his place, if healthy, Alexander Mattison is likely to assume the bell-cow role in Minnesota's backfield. At $6,100, if Mattison starts, he is a strong candidate for DFS lineups in all formats. However, Mattison has been limited in practice this week while he heals from a concussion. If he also misses out on the season finale, look to Mike Boone to shoulder the bulk of the load on the ground for Minnesota, with Ameer Abdullah spelling him in passing situations. At $4,000, both players are viable for GPPs if Mattison and Cook are inactive.
Jacksonville's unexpected star rookie running back, James Robinson, will miss out on their Week 17 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, leaving Dare Ogunbowale as the team's lead-back. Last weekend, when Robinson missed his first game of the season, Ogunbowale played 71-percent of the team's offensive snaps, carrying the ball 17 times for 71 yards against Chicago's defense. He also added 3 receptions on 5 targets through the air, which is unsurprising considering he was primarily a passing-down player on his previous team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite an expectedly difficult matchup against the Indianapolis Colts' defensive front, Ogunbowale proved last weekend that he is capable of shouldering the load in this backfield, and he is likely to see 20+ scoring opportunities once again this weekend. At just $4,500, Ogunbowale is a strong GPP pivot away from Malcolm Brown, who will be exceptionally popular when he fills in for the injured Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson in Los Angeles.
The Carolina Panthers confirmed that Mike Davis will not be active for this weekend's game against the New Orleans Saints. Expect Rodney Smith to assume the starting role in Carolina's backfield. This starting spot consistently produces both on the ground and through the air, regardless of who lines up alongside or behind Teddy Bridgewater. Last weekend, Smith played 31-percent of Carolina's offensive snaps, and now, the rookie running back from Minnesota could be one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the Week 17 main slate of games. Smith, in his limited playing time, averages almost 3.0 targets-per-game across the last three weeks. Here, as the team's number-one running back, he should see a dramatic uptick in both rushing and aerial volume. On a slate littered with cheap running back options, it would not come as a surprise if Rodney Smith is the most popular of the bunch, thanks to his expected receiving volume.
In Deebo Samuel's absence, Brandon Aiyuk stepped up as the 49ers' number-one receiving threat. Now, Aiyuk's rookie season has been cut short due to an ankle injury. With Aiyuk also sidelined, Richie James is the most likely next-man-up for San Francisco. Earlier in the year, when the team's receiving corps was decimated due to a COVID outbreak within the team, James posted 9 receptions for 184 yards and a score on 13 targets against the Green Bay Packers. Although James should not be expected to match that gaudy stat line this weekend, as he must compete with George Kittle for targets this weekend, he will likely see the second-most targets on the team. At just $3,100 on DraftKings, James is an elite GPP option this weekend against the Seattle Seahawks.
Unfortunately, Cooper Kupp will be unavailable for Los Angeles' must-win regular-season finale against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend. Kupp landed on the COVID-19/reserve list this week, leaving Robert Woods alone atop the team's depth chart at wide receiver. Woods has seen a price dip recently due to a minor drop-off in production, which coincides with Cam Akers' emergence as the teams' bell-cow running back. Akers' emergence is relevant to Woods' fantasy value because the personnel drives Sean McVay's play-calling tendencies at his disposal. This weekend, without his starting quarterback, running back, and wide receiver, we can expect the offense to run through Robert Woods on the outside. As noted earlier, John Wolford is a viable option at quarterback this weekend on DraftKings, and Robert Woods makes for the perfect pairing to round out a Rams stack in GPPs.
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions, comments, or concerns regarding this article or anything regarding this final week of the 2020 regular season!