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Passing Matchups Week 20
Rushing Matchups Week 20
Rushing Matchup Chart Week 20
Passing Matchup Chart Week 20
Buffalo Passing Offense at Kansas City- Good
Josh Allen finished the regular season as the league’s top fantasy quarterback while amassing career-best numbers in his efforts leading the Bills passing offense. While he struggled in last week’s matchup against Baltimore, Allen played a clean game and helped vault the Bills to this week’s conference title game. He will have a full complement of offensive weapons at his disposal this week, including the league’s leader in receiving yards--Stefon Diggs. The chemistry that quickly developed between Allen and Diggs in their first year together has been remarkable--especially in the downfield passing attack as that is where Diggs has made such a strong impact. Including the two postseason games, Diggs has amassed over 100 receiving yards in five of his last six games while scoring six times over that span. A combination of John Brown and Cole Beasley also offer solid options beyond Diggs. Beasley may still be limited from a late-season knee injury, but Brown showed last week he is far from limited as he had a great game catching eight passes for 62 yards while gaining just as many looks as Diggs.
The Chiefs passing defense did not play well down the stretch in the regular season, but they looked solid against the Browns in last week’s big win. A strong pass rush has been a staple of this Chiefs team for the past few years. While their sack numbers were far from eye-popping this season, this defensive line is capable of generating solid pressure--highlighted by defensive tackle Chris Jones, who had another Pro Bowl season. The Bills, however, do have a strong offensive line that did a great job protecting Allen throughout the season. The secondary for Kansas City has been decent throughout the regular season, especially against wide receivers as the position scored the second-fewest PPR fantasy points per game when facing Kansas City. However, Stefon Diggs will mostly see Charvarious Ward in coverage, which represents a distinct matchup advantage in favor of Diggs. The poor red-zone defense of Kansas City will also be something to watch this week, as the Chiefs rank last in the league allowing a touchdown over 75% of the time teams make it inside the 20.
Green Bay Passing Offense vs Tampa Bay- NEUTRAL
The Packers continue to steamroll opponents on the arm of MVP frontrunner Aaron Rodgers. Coach Matt LaFleur has balanced the Packers offense nicely, but the backbone remains Rodgers, who’s enjoying arguably the best season of a truly storied career. In the regular season, Rodgers posted the best completion rate (71%), touchdown rate (9.1%), and QBR (84.4) of his entire starting NFL tenure. And in last Saturday’s win, he carved through the Rams’ elite secondary for 296 yards and 2 touchdowns, winning a number of chess matches with Jalen Ramsey and company. Adams remains his top target with a bullet, averaging 9 receptions and 100 yards over his 15 full games. Adams wins all over the field, and not even the dominant Ramsey could slow him last weekend. The Tampa Bay defense is aggressive and talented but will be hard-pressed to keep Rodgers and Adams under control Sunday. The Packers would love to have left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee, injured reserve) on Rodgers’ blind side, though Billy Turner has filled in admirably. He’ll be relied upon heavily against the Buccaneers’ potent pass rush.
The Buccaneers looked like the early season Buccaneers last week and showed signs that their pass-defense woes down the stretch have been more or less evened out. Drew Brees certainly didn’t look like his prime self, and much of that can be credited to an aggressive Tampa Bay secondary that loves to attack both the receiver and the ball. They succeeded in shutting out Michael Thomas, who failed to catch any of his four targets, marking his first NFL game with fewer than two receptions. Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis were in fine form on the outside, while slot specialist Sean Murphy-Bunting stepped up with his best game of the season. On the day, they allowed Brees a paltry 3.9 yards per attempt and intercepted him 3 times. All in all, it was a good tune-up with Aaron Rodgers next on the docket, who will present a whole new challenge. Unlike Thomas and the Saints offense, Rodgers and Davante Adams have been sensational (and healthy) for most of the year, and they enter Sunday on a serious roll. Dean, Davis, and Bunting will need to recreate their strong showing from their Week 6 meeting, in which Adams managed “just” 61 yards on his 10 targets. Their aggressive press coverage can be stifling, and a repeat will be needed to hinder Adams’ quick-release timing routes. Rodgers gets a lot of relief from those quick-hitters, but this is certainly a unit capable of challenging them. It helps, of course, that the Tampa Bay pass rush flashes such dominance (50 sacks through 18 games) and doesn’t stretch itself thin with the blitz to do so.
Kansas City Passing Offense at Buffalo- TOUGH
The future of this Chiefs passing offense hinges on the health of Patrick Mahomes II, who suffered a concussion in the second half of last week’s game. Reports are generally optimistic about his chances to play, but this will undoubtedly be a situation to monitor as this offense will be nowhere near as potent with Chad Henne under center. Kansas City’s offensive weapons remain healthy and primed to continue their success though. Tyreek Hill had a big game with 110 yards last week--the best playoff performance of his career. Hill didn’t see a ton of big plays to close out the regular season, but he still finished the season with the second-most receiving touchdowns (15) while crossing the 1,000-yard mark for the third time in his career. Travis Kelce has been no slouch either, finishing the regular season behind only Stefon Diggs in receiving yards (1,416) despite missing the season finale as he caps off the best statistical season of his career. He has scored a touchdown in five straight games and will look to continue that success regardless of who suits up under center for the Chiefs.
The Bills passing defense looked spectacular against the Ravens last week, holding Lamar Jackson to just 162 passing yards with no touchdowns and one interception--which was returned 101 yards for a touchdown by cornerback Taron Johnson. This week, Johnson will have his hands full seeing a lot of Tyreek Hill out of the slot--a matchup in which Hill has the advantage despite catching just three passes for 20 yards the last time these teams met. The anchor of this passing defense has been cornerback TreDavious White though, and he should play a big part in shutting down his side of the field--whether that involves Demarcus Robinson or Mecole Hardman. The top-notch Bills safeties will also pose quite the challenge for these Chiefs receivers. The problem for this defense is likely to be Travis Kelce, who has wreaked havoc on nearly every defense he has faced this season. The Bills gave up the fifth-most fantasy points per game (PPR scoring) to opposing tight ends during the regular season, and Kelce scored twice the last time they met. Linebacker Matt Milano is not capable of keeping up with Kelce, and if either Bills safety takes their eyes off these playmaking wide receivers in favor of covering Kelce, they will be asking for trouble. A strong pass rush could be the savior for this Bills passing defense, but they will be in an uphill battle against a Chiefs offensive line that gave up the fifth-fewest sacks this season. All in all, this should be an interesting matchup to watch with key strengths and weaknesses to note on both sides.
Tampa Bay Passing Offense at Green Bay - TOUGH
The Buccaneers, it seems, were right not to second-guess Tom Brady during his mid-season swoon. Dating back to Week 10, the ageless wonder has produced a healthy 8.4 yards per attempt and 313 a game, with 24 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. Brady remains a short-to-intermediate specialist, and his deep ball continues to underwhelm, limiting the downfield upside of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. This attack is at its best when Brady is surgically finding his dynamic weapons on slants, crossers, and delayed releases into the secondary. Fortunately, that’s the best way to attack this Packers secondary, keeping the ball (mostly) away from rising superstar cornerback Jaire Alexander. We can expect Brady to keep targeting the middle of the field and the flats, neutralizing Alexander’s impact as a downfield cover man. When these teams met in Week 6, deep threat Evans caught just a single pass (for 10 yards) while Godwin and Rob Gronkowski found success underneath. This is a deep group, but it’s worth monitoring Antonio Brown’s status as he works through a knee injury. Brown hasn’t made a huge impact as a Buccaneer, but his absence would be felt.
The Packers pass defense spent 2020 developing into what’s now one of the best remaining units. Dating back to Week 12, opposing passers have averaged just 215 yards a game, and none has reached even 260. Much of the credit goes to the secondary, which has allowed just a single wideout (D.J. Moore a month ago) to produce anything of note over that span. They’ve forced even elite receivers like Allen Robinson (just 6.2 yards per target) and A.J. Brown (5.4) into high-volume but low-efficiency games. Top cornerback Jaire Alexander earned a second-team All-Pro nod as the backbone of this group. Alexander doesn’t shadow top receivers much, but he’s been instrumental in those tough games, and he helped smother Mike Evans (10 yards on 2 targets) in this very matchup in-season. Behind him, safeties Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage have quietly been one of 2020’s strongest coverage duos. There’s shutdown talent throughout this entire unit, and ample ability to make high-impact plays whenever Tom Brady tests them. One of the game’s keys will be how effectively the Green Bay pass rush, which has registered 45 sacks over 17 games, is able to press Brady’s pocket without overcommitting to the blitz.