The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Overlap
TEAM #1: 162.74 points | 9/50 | DID cash
TEAM #2: 142.60 points | 34/50 | did NOT cash
Last week, the overlapping pieces betwixt the two sharp lineups analyzed were extremely redundant. Three out of the four overlapping pieces were featured in last week's Sharp Core (Brandin Cooks, David Montgomery, and Anthony Firkser), and the fourth player (Dalvin Cook) has appeared in each of the last two iterations of The Sharp Report. For in-depth analysis on the three pieces of the sharp core and what the decision-making process behind each selection was, refer to last week's article.
Key Decision Points
Each week, sharp lineups separate themselves from the pack at a few repeating decision points. Here, in place of the redundant analysis of last week's sharp core, let's dive into what the decision points are and how to attack them best to build winning lineups.
NOTE: This section will be expanded with the inclusion of the second and third selections for the Sharp Core to provide additional insight and analysis regarding how to approach similar situations and decision points in the future.
Saving Salary With Injury Replacements
Finding the optimal bargain bin options is a critical feature of building sharp lineups. Each week, given how early DraftKings publishes their player pool and player pricing, late-breaking injury news plays a massive role in deciding who the best point-per-dollar plays are.
Last weekend, Brandin Cooks and Anthony Firkser jumped off the page as the obvious beneficiaries of increased roles in their respective offenses. In Houston, Brandin Cooks rose up the ranks to become the presumed number-one receiver in the Texans' offense following the suspension of Will Fuller, the release of Kenny Stills, and the injury of Randall Cobb. In Houston's pass-happy offense, Cooks made for an easy selection for sharp NFL DFS players to build a receiving corps around in Week 13. Additionally, as shown in Team #1 above, Keke Coutee was another viable Houston receiver that made for a strong cash-game play. While Cooks projected to go from a medial fantasy asset to a high-end fantasy asset in Houston's new-look passing attack, Coutee represents an entirely different dynamic. Coutee projected to go from a player that struggled to get on the field and produce-- which kept his price at just $3,500 entering Week 13-- to a player that would see a dramatic increase in playing time and involvement in the absence of three-quarters of Houston's typical producers on the outside.
There are effectively two ways to approach injury situations at the wide receiver position; one is targeting the typically-moderate producer that is poised to grow into a much larger role in his team's offense. The second option is to target the bottom-dollar receiving option that was previously an afterthought within the passing attack that is now primed to play the majority of the team's snaps and can reach value quite easily given this increase in playing time.
The running back position is much more straight-forward, regarding the optimal approach to injury replacements. Typically, one player stands to absorb the majority of the workload typically shouldered by the injured starter. These situations typically stand out immediately when sifting through the DraftKings player pool. The difficult piece of this process is deciding which situations are not worth targeting. Last week provided one fantastic example of when to avoid locking-in on a salary-saving injury replacement at running back: the Las Vegas Raiders' backfield. Devontae Booker was the presumed starter in Josh Jacobs' absence, yet he was rostered by less-than 15-percent of sharps in the $1,060 50/50 on DraftKings at the modest price of just $5,500. Booker was not a sharp cash-game selection because of the presence of Jalen Richard in the same backfield. Richard garners almost all of the receiving work in Las Vegas' backfield when Jacobs is not on the field, which put a hard cap on Booker's potential production. In the end, Booker and Richard played nearly the same amount of snaps against the New York Jets, and neither player posted a score worthy of including in a cash-game lineup.
At running back, avoid salary-saving injury replacements that project to take part in a true timeshare, especially when their role in the team's offense is one-dimensional, like Devontae Booker's was last weekend. In situations where the injury replacement is a well-rounded running back capable of playing on all three downs, that is when locking-in on the injury replacement is a sharp strategy for cash-games.
What To Do At Flex?
This decision-point has been frequently addressed throughout previous editions of The Sharp Report, but it bears repeating: the flex position should be treated as a third running back position almost every single week.
Once again, in Week 13, both sharp lineups analyzed filled the flex position with a running back, fitting a third high-floor option into their respective lineups. The week-to-week volatility of running backs is significantly lower than that of either wide receivers or tight ends. Additionally, the number of scoring opportunities that running backs receive is considerably higher than wide receivers or tight ends. Typically, a running back that warrants consideration in cash-games projects for 10+ carries to go along with a handful of targets, at minimum. Each week, only a handful of pass-catchers see double-digit targets, and their production rates and target volume fluctuate much more than a running back's rate-of-involvement does.
Plugging in a fourth wide receiver or second tight end may provide the necessary upside for GPP lineups. Yet, the downside associated with this approach is suboptimal for cash-games.
The Sharp Core
Sharp Play #1: Austin Ekeler
Since returning from injury, Austin Ekeler immediately re-emerged as the Los Angeles Chargers' bell-cow running back. In his first game since his long layoff, Ekeler played 73-percent of the team's offensive snaps while carrying the ball 14 times and commanding a stunning 16 targets. Last weekend, in a 45-0 blowout loss at the hands of the Patriots, there was no reason to risk the health of a key cog in the Chargers' offense, and Ekeler played 60-percent of the team's offensive snaps while toting the ball 8 times of the ground to go along with 9 targets through the air. Ekeler proved throughout the 2019 season that he is an exceptionally efficient fantasy asset at running back, and he is one of the league's best pass-catching running backs. Additionally, his role in Los Angeles' passing attack has grown since Justin Herbert took over under center. Ekeler's price decreased by $100 on DraftKings after last weekend's struggle against the New England Patriots. However, the underlying numbers behind Ekeler's usage in the game signal that better days are ahead. Throughout the game, Ekeler either carried the football or was targeted with a pass on nearly 40-percent of the snaps he played. Now, in a much more favorable scoring environment in Week 14, when the Chargers play host to the Atlanta Falcons, Ekeler's usage rate should remain high, to go along with an increased snap-share and significant touchdown equity. All-in-all, Austin Ekeler is a premier fantasy option to build cash-game lineups around at $7,000 on DraftKings.
Sharp Play #2: J.D. McKissic
Washington's emerging star at running back, Antonio Gibson, went down with a toe injury last weekend that will keep him sidelined for the foreseeable future. In his place, J.D. McKissic played over 70-percent of the Football Team's offensive snaps while racking up 10 receptions on 10 targets for 70 receiving yards. McKissic projects to receive the majority of the receiving work in Washington's backfield once again against the San Francisco 49ers this weekend, and with Alex Smith under center, this role is invaluable. Throughout his career, Smith has been a low-aDOT quarterback with a penchant for dumping the ball off to his short and safe receiving options. He and McKissic have been a match made in heaven during Smith's short tenure as Washington's starting quarterback, and this is the perfect opportunity to capitalize on this pairing's connection. At the medial price of $4,900, J.D. McKissic will surely be a staple of sharp cash-game lineups across the industry, and he should certainly make his way into your lineups this weekend as well.
Sharp Play #3: Travis Kelce
Right now, Travis Kelce is the closest thing to automatic that we have seen at the tight end position since peak Rob Gronkowski almost a decade ago. As Kansas City's offense has tilted more in favor of a pass-heavy approach that puts the fate of the team in Patrick Mahomes II' hands, Kelce has thrived. Kansas City's All-Pro tight end has posted at least 22 DraftKings points in 6-out-of-8 games and at least 16 DraftKings points in 7-out-of-8 games. This week, in Kansas City's matchup with the Miami Dolphins, it comes as no surprise that Travis Kelce tops the charts as the best tight end option on the slate according to almost every available metric. Given Kelce's absurd target-rate in Kansas City's top-ranked offense, his $7,300 price tag is worth paying-up for in cash-game lineups in Week 14.
THE SHARP CORE
- Austin Ekeler - RB - $7,000
- J.D. McKissic - RB - $4,900
- Travis Kelce - TE - $7,300
As always, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @StillZam with any questions or comments about this article or anything fantasy football! I will also be sending tweets whenever this article or any other piece I write here at FootballGuys is updated, so be sure to follow to keep tabs on when everything is added and finalized