We asked our staff to make a call on a running back. Who will surprise - either good or bad?
Phil Alexander
If you're afraid to draft Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the top half of the first round, you're overthinking it.
The only thing ever standing between Edwards-Helaire and elite fantasy production in year-one was Damien Williams. Williams removed himself from the equation, and none of Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson, or DeAndre Washington, are good enough reasons to fade Edwards-Helaire as a rookie.
Not enough people seem to realize pass protection won't impact Edwards-Helaire's opportunities to fill up the box scores. Kareem Hunt played on 65% of Kansas City's offensive snaps as a rookie despite pass-blocking on only 11% of those snaps. He was too busy carrying the ball, running routes, and scoring fantasy points when he was on the field for pass-blocking to matter. Why won't the same be true of Edwards-Helaire? His competition is too weak, the training camp buzz too loud, and Patrick Mahomes II' endorsement too meaningful to manufacture reasons to doubt him.
Ryan Hester
Chris Carson (currently being drafted in the RB18-20 range) and Josh Jacobs (currently RB8-10) will each finish where the other is being drafted.
Carson has a dynamic quarterback on his side and plays for an offense that is not only committed to the run but good enough to have game scripts to support that desire. And he has shown the ability to catch passes.
Jacobs will be the early-downs workhorse, but the only thing we have to make us feel comfortable about his passing game involvement is him saying he’d like to catch 60 passes. But the team’s retention of Jalen Richard, draft selection of Lynn Bowden, and signing of Theo Roderick suggest they don’t think Jacobs is ready to do that.
Jeff Tefertiller
Kareem Hunt finishes the 2020 season in the top 12 RBs in PPR leagues.
The Browns will use the running back position heavily if Stefanski's history is an indication. As a great receiving back, Hunt has the chops to be an every-down player. He was excellent after coming back from suspension.
Cleveland should be playing from behind often, pushing the veteran tailback into the lineup much more than the Chubb supporters would like.
Hunt is a known quantity. He was a fantasy RB1 in Kansas City. He should be one again this year.
Jeff Pasquino
A.J. Dillon will lead fantasy teams to the fantasy playoffs and a solid shot at a championship season.
I have written a few times about how Green Bay invested in Dillon and the team is ready to move on from Jones after this year. (Undervalued Running Backs, Green Bay Backfield Breakdown, and NFC North Deep Sleepers). My reasoning is not based solely on talent, because the NFL is a business. Business decisions are quite often based on financial concerns, so “following the money” can lead you to interesting discoveries. Aaron Jones is a solid tailback, but he is in the last year of his contract and the Packers are looking towards the future. In a season or two, Green Bay’s offense will look completely different, as Aaron Rodgers and Jones are unlikely going to be a part of it. The Packers drafted Jordan Love in the first round in April, and the second-rounder went to Dillon. Green Bay is emphasizing the ground game more and more, and that fits their environment where a November or December (or playoff) contest could be played in freezing temperatures. The team clearly wants to know if it can move on to Dillon as their starter for next season and let Jones walk to another franchise and a bigger payday with someone else. The Packers have enough workload to support two backs, but odds are that if Dillon shows promise, he could take over the backfield and be the lead back for the second half of the season. Jones also has an injury history, so there is another path for Dillon to be the second half fantasy star. With great matchups in Weeks 14-16 according to the Strength of Schedule (at Detroit then home against Carolina and Tennessee), Dillon could be that RB2 that rounds out your fantasy lineup and leads you to the league championship.
Dan Hindery
I am right there with Phil in believing that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is an instant fantasy star who will finish as a Top 5 PPR back.
My spicier take is that D’Andre Swift will join him as the second rookie running back in the Top 12 at the position. Like Edwards-Helaire, Swift is going to be a problem for opposing pass defenses from day one. Alvin Kamara comparisons as a pass catcher are deserved. After a recent practice where Swift was making the Lions linebackers look silly trying to cover him, a reporter asked Kerryon Johnson if he could learn anything from watching what Swift was doing. "I can't learn anything from Swift, because the way Swift's knees bend and hips work. I can't do any of that," Johnson said. "So, when he comes up and does his little, know what I'm saying, his little shakey-fake whatever thing. I can't do that. So, I just say, 'good job.' Maybe do this a little better, maybe do that. It's hard to tell somebody that got open, 'don't get open.’”
In addition to underestimating how special Swift is as a receiver, many are more concerned than they should be about how long it will take Swift to overtake Johnson as the primary ball carrier. Johnson has had a number of serious knee injuries, including a pair that cost him significant time in each of his two NFL seasons. He is sporting a bulky knee brace that he plans to wear all season and is getting so many off days during camp you might think he was 33 and not 23-years old. Even before all the injuries and the knee brace, Johnson didn’t have the explosiveness of Swift.
Expect talent to win out here sooner than later and for Swift to quickly move into a role where he is seeing 10+ carries and 5+ targets every week.
Chad Parsons
Aaron Jones will finish the season as one of the biggest running back disappointments in 2020. Jones surpasses 1,500 total yards and collects 19 touchdowns last season in a breakout season. What do the Packers do in the offseason? Draft a prototypical running back prospect in A.J. Dillon in the second round plus Josiah Deguara as a quality blocking H-back also on Day 2. Look for more power run game from Green Bay and Dillon will be hard to keep at bay as the season progresses as the perfect fit for the new Green Bay offense. Any missed time by Jones could be the end of his starting tenure for the Packers even if Jones holds off Dillon for the opening weeks of the season.
Jeff Haseley
My pick is Raheem Mostert. Last year marked the first time in five seasons that Raheem Mostert cracked 130 carries in a season. He always had the talent and the drive to be a reliable, productive back, however, the opportunity to consistently thrive was never there, until Kyle Shanahan put him into the spotlight in Week 13 last season. Mostert's carries jumped and the results followed. He finished as the 9th ranked PPR running back from Weeks 13-17, scoring seven touchdowns while averaging 5.9 yards per carry behind one of the better offensive lines in football. He is the front-runner to be the 49ers primary ball carrier in 2020 and expectations should not be any different from the back half of 2019. He is being drafted after the top 25 running backs are off the board, but his production could exceed that rather easily.
Sigmund Bloom
Nyheim Hines could return to PPR form this year with the arrival of Philip Rivers. Rivers has never targeted his running backs fewer than 100 times, and Hines is clearly the best receiving back and already has over 100 receptions in just two years. Hines has speed to burn and slot receiver experience to boot. Reports out of camp have Rivers targeting backs and tight ends frequently (take note if you are looking at Jack Doyle late) to give you more reason to target Hines late in PPR leagues.
Andrew Davenport
Saquon Barkley disappoints fantasy owners who took him second overall. It isn't that I don't believe in Barkley as a player because I do. I'm just not sold on the situation at the moment. He is being widely recognized across the industry as the #2 selection behind Christian McCaffrey and I think there is reason to pause and ask whether this should be the consensus. Quite a few things have changed for the worse for Barkley since he put up his incredible rookie numbers. If we remember his rookie year it was buoyed by 121 targets and 91 receptions in large part. That production left its indelible mark on drafters and they are paying for that type of production in 2020.
The problem is, like I wrote about back in May when I questioned who should be the 1.02, there are several indicators that Barkley won't come close to those reception totals, and that he isn't necessarily New York's top option in the red zone. In his 13 games last season he failed to pass 31 receiving yards in a whopping 10 of them. On top of that it appeared that there was a shift in the red zone tendencies as Daniel Jones was very efficient while avoiding mistakes near the goal line. Barkley also received 25% fewer opportunities to put the ball in the end zone inside the 20, and this translated to only 8 total touchdowns. And finally, he didn't receive an upgrade in the coaching department when Jason Garrett came to town, and the Giants face a brutal opening month with four top notch defenses.
Of course, this all ignores the fact that yes, Barkley was hurt for a chunk of the season and those injuries can linger for such an athletic explosive runner. I acknowledge the possibility that all of the red flags are part of the injury. But the things that changed last year were likely at least a little due in part to the change from Eli Manning to Jones. Is that going to continue in 2020? Or will it be a product of the injury? I am betting that it is a little bit of both, but that those expecting a return to #2 at the position are going to be disappointed. I expect Barkley to have 1,500 total yards, around 55-60 catches, and 10 total touchdowns. That's roughly 270 PPR fantasy points. That's going to slot him in somewhere at the end of the first round rather than the top of it. Barkley is going to disappoint drafters who took him over Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, and even Dalvin Cook.
Andy Hicks
I’m going with a similar train of thought to Jeff and Chad and looking at the Green Bay running back situation, in particular Aaron Jones. Jones finished 2019 as the third-ranked running back yet no one seems in any hurry to draft him anywhere near that slot in 2020. Why? Highly productive running backs in the NFL are becoming an endangered species and you would think he would be valuable to a franchise. Well, the Packers seem to be running to avoid paying him franchise back money and drafted A.J. Dillon in the second round. Apart from Dillon, the 2019 season from Jones screams fluke. 19 touchdowns are not going to happen again and Aaron Rodgers will get his share of touchdowns inside the five. That said Jones was the key to Green Bays' successful season and he will still have his moments. This will be a case of almost everyone being wrong or almost everyone being right.
Will Grant
I'm sticking with the Steelers and saying that James Conner finishes as a top 10 fantasy running back this season. For whatever reason, fantasy owners like to look at last year's stats and project them for this year. Conner was a huge disappointment (I know, I had him in several leagues), but so was the entire Pittsburgh offense. With Ben Roethlisberger back and some stability at wide receiver and tight end, Conner should return to the stats that made him a late 1st round pick last season. His current ADP has him going in the 4th round, and that means huge value for a guy who has top 10 upside.