Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
The favorites went 10-4 straight up this week but were just 6-8 against the spread. Even underdogs such as plucky Dallas managed to battle it out until the end, reminding us all that sometimes taking the points is the smart play, even if it feels like you need to hold your nose while doing it. A personal record of 6-8 was a direct result of taking too many shots on big favorites. Looking forward to Week 10, however, there are plenty of good opportunities to bounce back.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday Night) INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (-2) (Over/Under 49)
After two straight weeks with three touchdown passes, Philip Rivers stumbled and bumbled against the Ravens to the tune of exactly zero touchdown tosses. Generally, a trip to Nashville has meant smooth sailing for the Colts; they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in the Music City and 13-4 ATS in the last 17 series meetings overall. History notwithstanding, the present looks a lot more sobering for the Colts, whose offense lacks explosiveness and could be found out.
And yet, the Titans defense is nothing to write home about either. After a blistering start to the season, the Tennessee bandwagon has gotten a lot lighter in recent weeks. Injuries have played their part, and Vegas has the home team laying just two points, a nod to their less-than-ideal team momentum. The key match-up is the Colts offense against the Titans defense, a weakness on weakness match-up that may end up in an uninspiring clench in the middle of the ring. In a match-up of such tight margins, take the points.
Pick: Indianapolis
PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) at NY GIANTS (Over/Under 42)
The Giants, despite winning just two games, have made a habit of keeping things close this season. Joe Judge’s team has a 6-3 ATS record, though they have gone 1-2 ATS in games as the home underdog. At 2-7, bizarrely the Giants are still in contention in the putrid NFC East. A victory here would put them on the same number of wins as their opponents Philadelphia and would potentially open a path to an unlikely playoff spot. Daniel Jones does not inspire much confidence, though neither does Carson Wentz.
Jones and Wentz rank 21st and 27th, respectively, in ESPN’s QBR statistic, an imperfect snapshot of what are two imperfect passers. The Eagles are coming off a bye and should have some healthier bodies on the field, but it is time to start believing what we are seeing with the Giants defense, namely that they are a unit on the rise and playing with more confidence. This is a ‘hold your nose’ special but considering recent trends the call here is to take the +3.5 with the G-Men.
Pick: New York
JACKSONVILLE at GREEN BAY (-14) (Over/Under 52)
Jake Luton was not perfect by any means on Sunday, but he did more than enough to feed his playmakers, keep drives alive, and give the Jaguars a chance. It all came in a losing effort, however. Now, the task becomes more daunting, not necessarily because of how talented the Packers defense is, but simply the fact Luton – or perhaps Gardner Minshew – will have to duke it out with Aaron Rodgers. Vegas has set the line at a whopping -14, and while it is difficult to prognosticate the Jaguars keeping it close, that number appears a little high.
It is obvious why the market is so high on the Packers. As a popular public team, they tend to get assessed with a points-spread tax, much like the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Steelers. Having 10 days to prepare for this game, the Packers should have a healthier Aaron Jones on their hands to mow down a woeful Jacksonville rush defense. The Rodgers to Davante Adams show should produce fireworks in a straightforward win for the Pack, but taking the points seems the wisest option.
Pick: Jacksonville
WASHINGTON at DETROIT (-4) (Over/Under 45.5)
The devastating injury to Kyle Allen will thrust not Dwayne Haskins but Alex Smith into the starting quarterback role for Washington. Smith, a shoo-in for Comeback Player of the Year, was forced into action last Sunday and showed some fire to get his team back within touching distance. Two late interceptions doomed them ultimately, but the derring-do was there. Most of the Vegas sportsbooks do not have lines for this game considering the uncertainty at quarterback for Detroit, but one wouldn’t think Smith would be too fazed when scanning the defensive clippings on the Lions.
Matt Patricia’s supposed coaching secret sauce – defensive football – has been an unmitigated disaster for his team. On offense, things have not been much better. With Matthew Stafford’s status up in the air due to a concussion, this is a game that is best left untouched by any parlays, straight-up bets, or otherwise. If this preliminary line according to Vegas Insider holds up, the play would be Washington. With so much uncertainty, however, this is a no-play.
Pick: Washington
HOUSTON at CLEVELAND (-3) (Over/Under 54)
Houston just about got over the hump last week despite a brave effort from the Jake Luton-led Jaguars. They have something of a free shot this week in Cleveland, with no-one expecting much of Deshaun Watson and company. Despite the chasm between these teams in the win-loss column, for some reason the Browns are laying just the standard three points at home. Houston has gone 0-3 ATS as the road underdog this year.
At 5-3, the Browns are very much in the hunt for a wildcard spot and have a favorable schedule down the stretch to secure it. The offense will have had time during the bye week to plan for life post-Odell Beckham Jr, which should come back to the Kevin Stefanski staple of zone running and play action. Houston’s undisciplined defense has proven to be eminently exploitable this season, so laying the points with the home team, with two weeks to prepare, is the right call.
Pick: Cleveland
TAMPA BAY (-6) at CAROLINA (Over/Under 50.5)
The Panthers have been underdogs in seven of their nine games this year, going 5-2 ATS in those contests. Matt Rhule’s team took the Chiefs to the brink last week, with poor game management in the final seconds robbing them of a chance to win it with a field goal. Teddy Bridgewater is playing without fear and connecting well with his many targets, though it appears Christian McCaffrey, who only returned last week, may miss this game with a shoulder ailment. His impact was felt in a major way last week; Tampa will have a lot easier time defending Mike Davis.
The Bucs will be desperate to take out their frustrations on their division rivals after suffering an embarrassing defeat at home on Sunday night. They were powerless against the Saints, with Tom Brady under duress early and often. The Panthers do not have the horses up front to make that type of impact, so Brady should have a cleaner pocket this week. And yet, having barely beaten the Giants and having gotten thumped by the Saints, how can the Bucs be trusted? Carolina has found a way to keep games close; expect a similar result this week.
Pick: Carolina
LA CHARGERS at MIAMI (-2.5) (Over/Under 47.5)
Even at 2-6, the Chargers have a legitimate case as one of the premier teams in the AFC; a team that, in any given week, could upset the best. Justin Herbert was inches away from securing a thrilling victory last week against the Raiders, but that has been the sad story of the Anthony Lynn era: almost, but not quite. Fine margins. The season is essentially over for the Chargers now. How ironic would it be if they went on a streak? A fascinating test awaits against a surging Dolphins defense.
One of the stories of last Sunday was undoubtedly the real debut for Tua Tagovailoa, the game that put him firmly on the NFL stage and silenced any doubters who thought starting him was the wrong move. His dynamism and feel for the position are a joy to watch. The fact that the Dolphins are only laying -2.5 points is a puzzling line, and perhaps the one that many will jump on this week. The Chargers have, of course, a habit of staying within reach, but perhaps this is the week the dam finally breaks, with Tua on center stage.
Pick: Miami
DENVER at LAS VEGAS (-5) (Over/Under 52)
The total has crept up in this game as sharp bettors have jumped on recent trends, with the Broncos hitting the ‘over’ in their last three and Vegas 6-1-1 to the ‘over’ this season. Certainly, the Broncos will feel, two games back on their opponents, that this is a last chance saloon type of contest. The window to an unlikely playoff berth has not quite slammed shut – yet – but Drew Lock will need to up his game against an at-times feeble Raiders defense.
The Raiders have covered the last five in this series, and indeed money is pouring in on the home team, moving the line from -4.5 to -5 and even -5.5 in some sportsbooks. Vic Fangio’s team is 5-3 as the underdog this season, however, and the Raiders have not firmly entrenched themselves enough in the circle of trust to ride with them as comfortable home favorites. Expect Denver’s last-ditch effort to be feisty.
Pick: Denver
BUFFALO at ARIZONA (-1.5) (Over/Under 53.5)
The Bills had it all to prove last week amid a chorus of doubters shouting down their winning record, calling them frauds and paper champions. A comprehensive demolition of the Seahawks quickly put those doubts to bed. Josh Allen’s highs are incredible, but he still has a few ticks in this game that need working out. Nevertheless, with Allen pulling the strings the Bills are on the right track – and should pose quite a few problems for Arizona this week.
Kliff Kingsbury is 15-8-1 against the spread dating back to last season, and a -1.5 line is intriguing if one is bullish on the Cardinals. Defensive frailties, however, make this team hard to trust. Kyler Murray can pull off a series of amazing plays only to find himself powerless as the defense surrenders points in bunches. The ‘under’ 53.5 appeals here, with the Cardinals on an 8-4-1 run. As for the side, the Bills should be able to keep this one close, and their defense is more trustworthy.
Pick: Buffalo
SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ORLEANS (-9.5) (Over/Under 50.5)
With Jimmy Garoppolo on injured reserve, the 49ers will go with Nick Mullens against a fearsome Saints front seven that battered Tom Brady on Sunday night. Dealing with a battery of injuries, the Niners have dropped their last two games straight up and ATS. It will take a masterful game plan from Kyle Shanahan and an inspired defensive effort to stay within touching distance of New Orleans.
And yet, the Saints have been unconvincing in many outings this season, with no covers in five of their last seven games. Drew Brees continues to get it done, but one wonders if Fred Warner will be able to marshal Alvin Kamara enough to force the veteran passer to go elsewhere. The return of Michael Thomas to the Superdome turf will be a huge boon for Brees. The -9.5 line makes sense, but it is still a little too steep to be investing in.
Pick: San Francisco
SEATTLE at LA RAMS (-1.5) (Over/Under 55.5)
The Rams have been something of a bogey team for the Seahawks lately, winning four of the last five straight up in the series. That they are only laying -1.5 points is a mark of respect to MVP frontrunner Russell Wilson and his team. Coming off a loss to Buffalo last week, Pete Carroll’s team will be aware that dropping a game to the Rams would drop them out of first place in the NFC West.
Vegas has set a high total for this contest, despite the Rams going ‘under’ in their last five contests. Sean McVay’s team has the defensive wherewithal to go toe to toe with the Seahawks and should be able to at least slow them down. If Jared Goff can get into a rhythm against a somewhat feeble Seahawks pass rush, expect the Rams to make the -1.5 line look downright silly. Hit the ‘under’ before it drops.
Pick: Los Angeles
CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (-7.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
The news of several Steelers players, including Ben Roethlisberger, being placed on the Covid-19 list moved this line from its original -9.5 to -7.5. It seems, however, that the veteran quarterback will be free to play provided he continues to test negative. According to a USA Today report, Roethlisberger was a close contact and therefore must isolate throughout the week. The Steelers may not have produced the most convincing of displays last week in Dallas, but they are still 6-2 ATS and 8-0 straight up this season.
But here come the feisty Bengals, with Joe Burrow’s team 6-1-1 ATS this season and 5-1-1 as an underdog. The major weakness of the Bengals is the offensive line. Was that performance prior to the bye in which Burrow was well protected simply a mirage, or is it sustainable? If they can give Burrow time, he should be able to get into a groove. The extra half-point in Cincinnati’s favor is tempting here, so it is hard to resist them with two weeks to prepare.
Pick: Cincinnati
(Sunday Night) BALTIMORE (-6.5) at NEW ENGLAND (Over/Under 43.5)
The Ravens have not hit their stride yet this season, but perhaps this match-up, against an underpowered and reeling New England team, could be just the ticket. They have gone just 2-3-1 ATS in their last six, having gone 9-1 in their previous 10. Laying -6.5 on the road is a significant vote of confidence by Vegas. If this game plays out as it should, with Baltimore’s ground game leading the way against the Patriots’ rotating crew of front seven players, it should be over fast.
Sometimes we have to believe what we are seeing, and this iteration of Bill Belichick’s team is simply not equipped to duke it out with the big boys. Undoubtedly Belichick will enjoy game planning to try to stop or slow down Lamar Jackson, but this is not a fair fight, no matter how you slice it. The Patriots are 1-2 ATS as an underdog this season; make that 1-3 after this week.
Pick: Baltimore
(Monday Night) MINNESOTA (-2.5) at CHICAGO (Over/Under 44.5)
The Vikings have covered five of their six games despite having a 3-5 record. And make no mistake, this is a team on the rise and brimming with confidence. The Dalvin Cook pace is not sustainable, of course, but Mike Zimmer will not deviate from a plan that has been working – even against a defense as stout as Chicago’s. This could be a proper NFC North fistfight, with points at a premium. Interestingly, the look-ahead line for this game had the Bears as favorites, but that quickly switched after both teams’ results last week.
The Bears offense continues to massively underperform, so if the Vikings can get out to a lead early, it could be curtains. On a three-game losing streak, this profiles as a nice spot for the home team to bounce back and upset the odds, but it is difficult to project that happening. Given the trajectories of both teams, there is only one way to go.
Pick: Minnesota
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Another mixed week for the Best Bets, with 2-2 the best we could muster. With lines getting more efficient as the weeks go by, however, we have to remain focused and stick to the process. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 MIAMI (-2.5) vs. LA CHARGERS
- 2 LA RAMS (-1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- 3 MINNESOTA (-2.5) at CHICAGO
- 4 CINCINNATI (+7.5) at PITTSBURGH
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 10 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.5-1 ODDS)
- CINCINNATI (+7.5)
- MINNESOTA (-2.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DOUBLE DOG (2.64-1 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (+1.5)
- DENVER (+5)
- 2-TEAM UNDER DOUBLE (2.61-1 ODDS):
- SEATTLE/LA RAMS – UNDER 55.5
- BUFFALO/ARIZONA – UNDER 53.5
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM MEGA MONEY LINE (5.06-1 ODDS)
- MIAMI – FOR THE WIN
- LA RAMS - FOR THE WIN
- BUFFALO – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Miami, Buffalo, LA Rams, Minnesota, Cincinnati
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 6-8
- SEASON OVERALL: 72-59-2 (55.3%)
- BEST BETS: 19-16-1, last week 2-2 (56.3%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 23-22-1, last week 2-3 (51.6%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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