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The 2021 NFL free-agent class is loaded with big names at the skill positions. Here is a look at the Tier 1 players potentially on the move and the dynasty impact of their free-agent status:
*aPPG is a proprietary measure of PPR PPG with some adjustment for missed games*
Quarterbacks
Prescott is the glaring crown jewel of the quarterback class. A season-ending injury cloud the offseason for Prescott but Dallas is unlikely to let Prescott out into the open market with a long-term deal possible or at worst the franchise tag to continue working on a contract solution. The lone twist from an NFL team-building perspective is what if Dallas is in a position to draft Justin Fields (or the QB2/3) in the NFL Draft? A rookie contract quarterback would free the Cowboys for flexibility across their roster and gain five years of control over the incoming rookie under a low salary, especially compared to Prescott. This is a low-probability outcome but Dallas at 1.04 in the order heading into Week 12 and only half a game from the 1.03 spot has Dallas in position for this as a potential outcome. Prescott's best fantasy value is with Dallas in 2021 and beyond compared to the aggregate average of the landing spots around the NFL considering Dallas' offensive weapons plus, as exhibited in 2020, a struggling defense can be a benefit for the fantasy outcome of the team's passing game to play catch-up and shoot-out on a regular basis.
Running Backs
- Aaron Jones
- Leonard Fournette
- Chris Carson
- James Conner
- LeVeon Bell
- David Johnson (Cut Candidate)
Aaron Jones is the highlight name considering his age and recent production. The Packers are in an interesting situation, much like the Cowboys above with Dak Prescott. The Packers insulated the back-end of their running back depth chart with Round 2 rookie A.J. Dillon. A splashy Jones contract would negate the benefit of Dillon's rookie contract. The team could even bring back free agent Jamaal Williams in the offseason at a much cheaper pivot compared to Jones' market value. Leonard Fournette is an interesting case study in dynasty as Fournette had three straight RB1 seasons before 2020 and shifting from Jacksonville to Tampa Bay and a firm committee. Fournette has an elite draft pedigree and a foundation back history to anchor a needy depth chart or transition (over time) to a 2021 incoming rookie. Chris Carson and James Conner are mid-career (at best) options with Carson lacking pedigree and Conner being a try-hard back at heart without high-end physical traits. Both can be 1A options in 2021 and possibly over the next two seasons, but some version of a committee or combination with a younger option is more likely. Neither are strong bets to return a Round 1 rookie pick in the dynasty trade market going forward. LeVeon Bell is one of the better fantasy producers of the position over the past 25 years. Before sitting out a season in Pittsburgh, Bell had five straight top-8 aPPG seasons. The 2019 Jets season was of the mid-RB2 variety and this year he shifted to Kansas City as the lesser part of a committee with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. David Johnson is also a strong cut candidate with his low dead cap and high salary in 2021. Houston is in a poor cap situation and both Johnson and Duke Johnson Jr have conducive contracts for Houston to aid their financial reset at a fungible position given their team state.
Wide Receivers
- Allen Robinson
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Kenny Golladay
- Will Fuller
- Chris Godwin
- Corey Davis
The wide receiver position is the crown jewel for the 2021 free-agent class. All of the above names are capable of carrying a wide receiver depth chart as a WR1. Davis would be the biggest player rounded up into that strata, but his top-five pedigree plus the light coming on in 2020 point to an opportunity to continue his progression in 2021. With Houston's poor cap situation, Will Fuller is one of the least likely candidates to return to his current team in 2021. The Steelers are also unlikely to bring back JuJu Smith-Schuster considering they are projected over the cap in the offseason for 2021 and their receiver depth chart has three other Day 2 options on their rookie contracts for less combined than Smith-Schuster is likely to get on a per-year basis with a new contract. Robinson is the optimistic name for a dynasty uptick with a team change and, more importantly, a quarterback change. Robinson has had a low-level collection of quarterbacks dating back to Penn State (Matt McGloin, Christian Hackenberg) and in the NFL (Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Mitchell Trubisky, and Nick Foles of note). Robinson had an opportunity to sign with Green Bay, but chose Chicago instead. Robinson has still been a top-40 aPPG fantasy receiver each NFL season including two top-10 years despite the quarterback wreckage around him. 2021 offers a fresh start for Robinson.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry is the big name here considering his age, pedigree, and production combination. The Chargers passing game is a crowded one with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at receiver. Henry has two top-10 aPPG seasons in his career but the ceiling has been stunted without a top-six season to date. Jonnu Smith is having a career year in 2020 but has yet to string together a complete season of traditional tight end usage and production. Smith's wildcard is his athletic profile if optimized within an offense. Cook and Gronkowski are older veterans with TE1 potential even on new teams in 2021. Neither will carry more than a later Round 2 rookie pick valuation from this point forward in their careers.
Potential Incumbent Benefactors
- A.J. Dillon - Day 2 pedigree and clear 2021 starter potential for Packers
- KeShawn Vaughn - Ronald Jones II returning but RB2 role opens if Leonard Fournette is gone
- Rashaad Penny - Health is biggest roadblock for Penny. Carson and Hyde both free agents
- Benny Snell - Snell is closer to just a guy than a difference-maker, but next man up if no Conner
- Damien Williams - Out of sight, out of mind with opt-out, but could assume 1B role with no Bell
- Darnell Mooney - Doubtful Bears roll with no Allen Robinson without an addition but Mooney has flashed
- Scott Miller - Producer in 2020 before Antonio Brown addition
- Tyler Johnson - Elite metric prospect from Day 2, flashed in minimal rookie playing time to-date
- Anthony Firkser - Has been productive despite Jonnu Smith breakout
- Adam Trautman - Day 2 trade-up acquisition in 2020 draft class, Jared Cook gone paves path
- O.J. Howard - Injured in 2020 but Gronkowski addition tempered upside regardless
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Dynasty
Keenan Allen
Le'Veon Bell
Blake Bortles
Antonio Brown
Chris Carson
James Conner
Jared Cook
Corey Davis
AJ Dillon
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Anthony Firkser
Nick Foles
Leonard Fournette
Will Fuller V
Chris Godwin
Kenny Golladay
Rob Gronkowski
Chad Henne
Hunter Henry
O.J. Howard
David Johnson
Duke Johnson Jr
Tyler Johnson
Aaron Jones
Ronald Jones II
Scotty Miller
Darnell Mooney
Rashaad Penny
Dak Prescott
Allen Robinson II
Jonnu Smith
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Benny Snell Jr.
Adam Trautman
Mitch Trubisky
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Damien Williams
Jamaal Williams
Mike Williams