Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterbacks
Tefertiller
Josh Allen – It is time to admit that Josh Allen is a viable fantasy option. He has played well, and it is apparent he should move up the rankings. While still unsure about his long-term passing, Brian Daboll (offensive coordinator) has done an outstanding job putting Allen in positions to succeed. The route patterns have been phenomenal, and Allen has made the throws. The addition of Stefon Diggs has helped more than expected, too.
Ryan Tannehill – Tannehill is a legitimate fantasy QB1 at a discounted cost. Still just 32 years of age, Tannehill is athletic and runs the Titans offense with precision. I expect his numbers to jump once he has both A.J. Brown and Corey Davis healthy.
McNamara
Justin Herbert - Justin Herbert has been terrific to start his career. He handled a surprise start well in week two and his performance to date should secure his status as a long-term starter for the Chargers outside of a bad coaching decision. Herbert’s 8.7 yards per attempt is a healthy number and he ranks in the top 10 of completion percentage over expectation. His strong start puts him on a better track than younger quarterbacks like Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold in particular.
Grant
Dak Prescott – Dallas will be lucky to win five games this season. Their defense is a turnstile and they are going to need to score 30 or more points a game. They have three of the best receivers in the league and I’ve been banking that Prescott will throw for 5000 yards this season. With almost 1700 yards passing through the first four games, he’s well on the way to that mark. Prescott won’t replace Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes II as the top quarterbacks for a dynasty team, but I would have no issues taking him as the #3 quarterback.
Carson Wentz – The Eagles are struggling this year, even though they might actually win the division. Wentz has looked very average this season, and through the first 4 games, he has seven interceptions compared to just 4 touchdowns and less than 1000 yards total passing. Until the Eagles can get him some better receiving options, Wentz is more of a backup fantasy quarterback at this point.
Running Back
Grant
Saquon Barkley – Barkley should be back by the time the 2021 season rolls around, but the Giants have bigger problems than missing their starting running back. He was their entire offense with him out for the season, the Giants are looking like a team who will be drafting in the top 5 next year. Even if Barkley comes back at 100%, I’d bump him down a bit given the uncertainty that the Giants will have on offense for the next year or two.
Joe Mixon – Cincinnati is starting to look better this season. They are still in a tough division and will be lucky to win eight games this year, but their offense has looked better than they have in a while. Joe Mixon was off to a slow start this year, but despite being an injury concern this week, he posted a massive game with over 30 touches against a surprisingly tough Jacksonville team this week. Mixon is a big part of an offense on the rise – and he’ll finish the season with top 10 fantasy running back numbers this year, especially in a PPR league.
David Montgomery – The Chicago offense runs and hot and cold, and despite their 3-1 start, Montgomery has not been a part of the offense. With Tarik Cohen on the sideline, you’d expect Montgomery to benefit – but he did not. He had just 13 touches and barely broke 50 yards. He’s not even on pace to break 1,000 rushing yards this season. He gets a downgrade until the Bears figure out how to better utilize him.
Cam Akers – Akers had 15 touches for 43 yards in the opening game against Dallas but had just 3 touches in week two before being sidelined with a rib injury. He’s missed the last two weeks and is losing time and carries to Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown. He deserves a downgrade until he can show he can stay healthy and contribute.
McNamara
James Robinson - James Robinson has been a revelation. It was a surprise that Robinson went undrafted and landed in what looked like a buried situation. Things have gone Robinson’s way as Leonard Fournette was waived, Ryquell Armstead landed on the COVID list and Devine Ozigbo ended up on IR. Robinson has capitalized with a top 10 performance in the first quarter of the season. Robinson has averaged 18.5 touches per game and is top 5 at the position in receiving yards. While he is a riser, it is important to remember he is a tenuous dynasty player. 21 undrafted free agent running backs entering the NFL since 2000 have finished with a top 24 seasonal finish in their career. Of those 21, 10 have been one-hit wonders, while five have hit for an additional top 24 seasonal finish. Only 29% have finished with three or more top 24 seasonal finishes. To avoid high-level competition in 2021 Robinson needs to continue his strong performance and avoid injury.
Joshua Kelley - Joshua Kelley has been a surprise performer to start the season and gets a great opportunity with Austin Ekeler injured. Kelley has the opportunity to lead the backfield and can accumulate 0.5 to 1 win over replacement player while Ekeler is out. As a late second- or third-round rookie pick in May, this is a windfall opportunity for fantasy teams.
Tefertiller
Aaron Jones – I overreacted to the A.J. Dillon draft pick and am now moving Jones back up the rankings. He has been outstanding, picking up where he left off in 2019. The Packers do not have a back to threaten Jones for touches, and his receiving ability only adds to the value.
James Robinson – Robinson has looked like a long-term fantasy starter. After going undrafted, Robinson has played well enough for the Jaguars to release Leonard Fournette and eschew other options in free agency. At this point, he is producing like a fantasy RB1 as a rookie and there is no reason to expect a letdown.
James Conner – After his injury-plagued 2019, Conner has looked great this season. He enters free agency after the season and is expected to depart the Steel City. After vastly outplaying the much-ballyhooed Benny Snell, Conner has seen most of the touches. Coach Tomlin has a history of relying on his bellcows, so we expect Conner’s load to remain strong as long as he can remain healthy.
Myles Gaskin – Gaskin has been a surprise in fantasyland. The Dolphins brought in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, yet still give Gaskin most of the snaps. Dynasty players should take heed and use this as an opportunity to buy from slow-to-adjust leaguemates.
Wide Receiver
McNamara
Justin Jefferson - Justin Jefferson has come on strong to start his rookie season. After a slow start, Jefferson is coming off back to back 100-yard games. Kirk Cousins is playing well on lower passing volume and the Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. have been disappointing to start the season. This is creating a pass funnel to Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Jefferson was a strong producer in college but fell behind Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Jalen Reagor in rookie drafts. With his start, Jefferson certainly belongs closer to the top of that conversation than he was in May.
DK Metcalf - DK Metcalf is a player rising for me that I am likely still below consensus on. There are 10-15 wide receivers in a tier that could be put in virtually any order and it is tough to argue with. For example, if you have Metcalf in the top 6 wide receivers, I understand the argument, I just value prior production more than future upside, especially after a four-week sample. Metcalf has been terrific, however, his 2.65 points per target are completely unsustainable. Metcalf is good, but that efficiency is dangerous to use as a predictor of future production. With Tyler Lockett the more established and more targeted player, I still have Metcalf behind Lockett. If Metcalf sees a growth in targets going forward, he will likely continue to rise up my rankings.
Tefertiller
Jerry Jeudy – Last time, it was fellow-rookie CeeDee Lamb who rocketed up the rankings. This time, it is Jeudy. When the Broncos get Drew Lock back, look out. He will explode for some monster outings down the stretch. The play he made last Thursday night against the Jets was just a glimmer of things to come.
Mecole Hardman – Potential can only hold on for so long in the dynasty rankings. I love Hardman’s potential as a speedy playmaker, but his lack of playing time should speak volumes for how the Chiefs coaching staff views him. This is one of those times that we – in the dynasty community – should take clues from the coaches … especially since they are the ones to dole out playing time.
Stefon Diggs – Self-evaluation is the only way to improve my rankings process. It is painfully obvious that I overreacted to the trade to Buffalo as Diggs has been awesome. He should be ranked every bit as high as when he was with Minnesota. In fact, the way Daboll is calling plays, a valid argument can be made that the Bills situation – with Josh Allen under center – is better than with the Vikings.
Grant
Calvin Ridley – Julio Jones may still be Big Dog on the Falcons, but Ridley is the guy who is posting the best fantasy value. Until this week, he was seeing double-digit targets in each of the first three games. He struggled against the Packers (as did all the Atlanta receivers), but Ridley is still the guy that I’d be targeting for my dynasty team.
Tyler Lockett – Lockett did not do well this week against the Dolphins, but he was on fire the week before against the Cowboys, posting nine receptions for 100 yards and three scores. He had 29 targets through the first three games and was averaging 8 receptions a game as well. With the Seahawks hitting on all cylinders, expect Lockett to keep posting big numbers.
Cooper Kupp – After a slow start to the season against the Cowboys, Kupp caught fire and has been posting big numbers over the last two games. 14 receptions for over 175 yards and two touchdowns on 17 targets is pretty impressive, and Kupp looks to be back at one of the top targets in the LA passing attack.
Tight End
Tefertiller
Irv Smith – The Irv Smith experiment is over. If he cannot get snaps and targets with the Vikings throwing often trying to play catch up, then I need to adjust and move him down the rankings. Like Hardman above, potential only goes so far. I prefer Harrison Bryant to Smith, which was something unfathomable a few months ago.
Chris Herndon – Like Smith above, Herndon’s lack of production is concerning. He is an afterthought in the Jets offense. Given the ineptness of the coaching staff, Herndon is an intriguing “buy” option if the price is super low. The coaching staff will turn over soon enough and the talent is there.
Grant
Zach Ertz – With Dallas Goedert set to miss multiple weeks, it looked like Ertz was primed to become a stud. Instead, his place in the offense seems to be decreasing as the Eagles try to figure out some way to score. Philly may be the best team in a terrible division, and their offense is struggling. Ertz should be the ‘go-to’ guy in the offense, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
Mike Gesicki – Although the Dolphins are going to struggle on offense this year, Gesicki could be the one guy you want to target from the offense. He’s a huge target in the red zone and can easily out-muscle smaller defensive backs trying to defend him. Hey may only turn in a couple of touchdowns a day, but with the potential to have 5 or 6 touchdowns this season, he’s worth targeting for your team.
Robert Tonyan Jr – Tonyan is going to be the hot waiver wire pickup this week after posting a huge Monday night game with three touchdowns. He’s clearly moved beyond Jace Sternberger and is now Green Bay’s go-to tight end. He has touchdowns in the last three games and is on pace to be one of the type fantasy tight ends in the league this year. With GB going into a bye week, beware of not having an option next week but you should be targeting him now if he’s not on a roster.
McNamara
Robert Tonyan Jr – The youngster has been a revelation for Green Bay. With the offense lacking in established weapons outside of Devante Adams, Tonyan has stepped in and taken the lead job at tight end. He had a breakout performance on Monday Night Football and should be added in any leagues he is on waiver wires. I would be cautious about a significant uptick in his value above more established options with his relatively low target volume and high touchdown rate, but optimism to reflect his performance through four weeks will result in a higher target volume.
If you would like to review our most recent Dynasty rankings, here is a link.
