Introduction
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
One hypothetical example of beating the closing line would be betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at -4 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at -5.5. Here, the most efficient number is deemed to be -5.5, leaving the bettor with 1.5 points of closing value. Another hypothetical example, conversely, would be betting on the Carolina Panthers at +7 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at +4 at kickoff. In this example, there would be 3 points of closing line value for the wager on Carolina. As previously stated, consistently registering bets with positive closing line value is a great signal of a bettor who should find success in the future. This season, closing line value (CLV) will be tracked for all recommended wagers, along with the win-loss and profit-loss totals.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam, as I will tweet updates whenever an edit is made to this article or any other piece that I write. As lines move leading up to kickoff this weekend, if value reveals itself elsewhere in the league, it will be analyzed below
Results
- Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-114), LOSS -1.14 units
- Houston Texans -1.5 (-110), LOSS -1.10 units
Week 14 profit/loss: -2.24 units
Year-to-date profit/loss: -10.65 units
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-114), risk 1.71 units to win 1.50 units
Backing the Kansas City Chiefs in recent weeks has been absolutely miserable. A pair of backdoor covers by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins for a combined swing of nearly -5.0 units has done a number on the season-long return tally. However, we cannot allow this impact on our bankroll to cloud our judgment, and we must approach each and every week independently and objectively.
The Kansas City Chiefs have not covered the spread since Week 8 against the New York Jets. While this trend against-the-spread is largely useless, these recent results help explain the market's adjustment regarding the Chiefs' evaluation. On a macro level, the Chiefs are the obvious favorite to win the Super Bowl this season. On a micro level, they have fallen short of the market's expectations in five consecutive outings. As a result, this weekend's line against the New Orleans Saints has shortened to just a three-point spread in favor of Kansas City.
Now, diving into the specifics of this matchup, the Kansas City Chiefs' offense is firing on all cylinders at a level, unlike anything we have seen in recent seasons. Last weekend, Patrick Mahomes II turned in one of his career's worst performances, yet he still led the Chiefs to a 31-point showing. Mahomes threw three interceptions in the game, tied for the most in any single game in his career, while he was sacked three more times, the third most he has ever taken in his career. However, when the dust settled, Mahomes finished the day with over 390 passing yards and a pair of scores, leading to a respectable 8.76 adjusted-yards-per-attempt on the afternoon. Mahomes' unmatched connection with Travis Kelce was on full display once again last weekend, as the pair teamed up 8 times for 136 yards and a touchdown through the air. Unsurprisingly, Tyreek Hill broke the game wide open with a 44-yard touchdown reception early in the third quarter, and there is no reason to believe he is going to slow down any time soon. At this point, there is no defense in the NFL that is capable of slowing down this dynamic scoring attack that is led by perhaps the most talented passer the NFL has ever seen. This weekend, the only other factor at play for this offense is the location of this game, inside the dome of Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Without a home crowd packing the stands, there is no home-field advantage to be had. In fact, the conditions inside the dome, where there is no possibility of adverse weather conditions, favor Kansas City's high-flying scoring attack, which should spell trouble for the New Orleans Saints' defense all afternoon on Sunday.
On the Saints' side of the football, the offensive results in recent weeks have been worrying. Despite an encouraging start to the Taysom Hill experiment at quarterback, the Saints have only tallied 21 points in each of their last two outings. Hill's passing has been erratic in his limited time at quarterback; at times against the Falcons, he could fit the ball through the eye of a needle. Then, one week later, the Saints' dual-threat quarterback was regularly off-target on short and simple dump-off passes. A compounding factor to Hill's recent struggles is the lack of a viable rushing attack to take the pressure off of his shoulders. A consistent rushing attack to complement the passing game is critical to their success for inexperienced and developing quarterbacks. However, Alvin Kamara has only surpassed 55 rushing yards once in his last 6 games. This weekend, it is unlikely that New Orleans' rushing attack gets going in an expected shootout with the league's most prolific scoring attack. To keep pace with Patrick Mahomes II, Taysom Hill will need to air the ball out and get the better of the Chiefs' respectable 14th-ranked pass defense, according to DVOA.
Overall, in this battle between the league's most impressive scoring offense and a team that has hit a wall in recent weeks with their backup quarterback leading the way, the Kansas City Chiefs project to prevail comfortably. This matchup projects as a 5.5-point game in favor of the Chiefs, and as a result of FanDuel's 3-point line, we have a 1.71-unit wager on the favorites to cover the spread and potentially net 1.5 units of profit.
BUFFALO BILLS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Pick: Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-110), risk 1.1 units to win 1.0 unit
The Buffalo Bills solidified their ranking as one of the league's top contenders this season with their Sunday night victory over the 11-2 Pittsburgh Steelers. Buffalo turned in an impressive all-around performance as their offense maintained its high level of play while the defense rose to the occasion and held the Steelers to just 15 points on under 225 yards of total offense. Buffalo's offense has been one of the top stories of the 2020 season, as Josh Allen, by all accounts, has risen up the ranks and shockingly grades as one of the top-five quarterbacks in the NFL this year. The offseason acquisition of Stefon Diggs has played a massive role in Buffalo's offensive improvement, as Diggs gives Allen one of the most secure safety blankets in the league. Diggs leads the NFL in 10-catch games and total receptions on the year, and his remarkable talents as a pass-catcher have been on full display in Buffalo's well-designed offensive attack. Brian Daboll, the Bills' offensive coordinator, has designed a scheme to fit the talented players he has been gifted, molding roles to fit his players' skills. Conversely, coordinators around the league often try to fit the players in their offense into the predetermined roles they have built their offensive approach around. The latter strategy leads to inefficient offenses that attempt to fit round pegs into square holes. In Buffalo, however, the Bills take full advantage of the unique skill sets of players like Stefon Diggs, who dominates in one-on-one matchups with cornerbacks, Cole Beasley, who separates unlike any other player in the league out of the slot, and John Brown or Gabriel Davis on the outside, who provide dangerous deep-threats down the field to take the top off of a defense. Brian Daboll's rebuilt approach to play-calling has paid massive dividends this season, as the Bills' offense ranks fourth in the NFL in passing DVOA and fifth in overall weighted DVOA. This weekend's chess match between Daboll and Vic Fangio, one of the league's true defensive masterminds, slants heavily in favor of the Bills, as great offense beats great defense in the modern NFL, which is tailored to fit high-scoring offenses.
Denver's 2020 campaign has hinged on the performance of Drew Lock at quarterback. Unsurprisingly, much like Lock's week-to-week numbers, the Broncos' results this season have been erratic, to say the least. At times, Lock has flashes of greatness where he can extend plays and make throws reminiscent of some of the league's most talented passers. However, at other times, he looks completely lost in the pocket, and he misses badly on high-percentage throws. On the year, Lock's 13:13 touchdown-to-interception ratio is one of the worst in the NFL amongst qualified passers, and his 57.3-percent completion percentage ranks dead-last amongst qualified quarterbacks. Unlike some of the other underwhelming passers throughout the NFL, the weapons on the outside are not the issue for Lock. The Broncos have invested heavily in acquiring play-makers to take the pressure off of their young quarterback. Unfortunately, the second-year quarterback from Missouri has been unable to connect with his talented pass-catchers like Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant. Since Lock returned from injury in Week 6, only 55-percent of Jerry Jeudy's total targets have been catchable, which ranks 61st out of 61 qualified receivers. Additionally, Tim Patrick, Denver's number-two receiver, ranks 59th out of 61 qualified receivers. Across the team's last 4 games with Lock under-center-- ignoring the infamous Kendall Hinton game-- Denver's offense has averaged only 18.75 points-per-game, which would rank third-worst in the NFL this season. Although Buffalo's defense has not been impressive on the whole this season, they are rounding into form at the right time, as they have allowed only 18.67 points-per-game since their Week 11 bye. Expect Drew Lock and the Broncos to struggle to move the ball down the field on this improving defense, giving a significant edge to a Buffalo Bills side that the market still underestimates.
In sum, this matchup projects to be approximately a seven-point game in favor of the Buffalo Bills. On the offensive side of the football, while the Broncos provide a formidable opponent for the Bills' proficient scoring attack, the Bills still have the edge in that matchup. On defense, Drew Lock's inconsistent passing performance will likely spell trouble for the Broncos, as the Buffalo Bills have proven to be capable of containing below-average and inexplosive passing attacks in recent weeks. A 1.1-unit wager on the Bills to cover the 5.5-point spread is in store for this weekend, and we will net 1.0 unit of profit in a victory.
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam with any questions, comments, or concerns about the upcoming weekend of football!