Introduction
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
One hypothetical example of beating the closing line would be betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at -4 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at -5.5. Here, the most efficient number is deemed to be -5.5, leaving the bettor with 1.5 points of closing value. Another hypothetical example, conversely, would be betting on the Carolina Panthers at +7 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at +4 at kickoff. In this example, there would be 3 points of closing line value for the wager on Carolina. As previously stated, consistently registering bets with positive closing line value is a great signal of a bettor who should find success in the future. This season, closing line value (CLV) will be tracked for all recommended wagers, along with the win-loss and profit-loss totals.
Results
- Indianapolis Colts -3.5 (-106), WIN +1.5 units
- Pittsburgh Steelers -7 (-110), LOSS -1.10 units
Week Profit: +0.40 units
Total Profit: -8.41 units
Last week was more of the same for the Beating the Odds betting card. We came out of the gates hot on Sunday, where we caught a few lucky breaks with the Indianapolis Colts holding the Houston Texans scoreless throughout the second half to secure a six-point win and cover the spread. However, as the week wore on, the outlook became increasingly bleak for the second wager of the week. The Pittsburgh Steelers' issues with drops and inefficiencies in high-leverage third and fourth-down situations plagued them throughout their stunning home loss to the Washington Football Team. Pittsburgh looked competent in the first half when they built up a 14-3 lead. However, after being outscored 20-3 in the second half, not only did they not cover the game, but they lost outright as a seven-point favorite as Alex Smith nickel-and-dimed the Steelers' defense to death. Nevertheless, we're back at it again this weekend, pursuing our first undefeated card of the season to help get back on track and right the ship.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
PICK: Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-114), Risk 1.14 units to win 1.0 unit
A short few weeks ago, we backed the Kansas City Chiefs in their matchup with the blitz-heavy Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, in Week 14, they go up against a less-talented Miami Dolphins defense that also loves to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Dolphins send extra blitzers at opposing quarterbacks on over 41-percent of their defensive snaps, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Fortunately for the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes II is the NFL's most dangerous passer against the blitz. Shockingly, Mahomes' numbers against the blitz have improved in recent weeks to a staggering total of 12 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 138.8 passer rating. Additionally, behind the blitz, the Miami Dolphins rely heavily upon man coverage to contain opposing passing attacks. Thanks to mismatch-makers like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs' passing attack shred man coverage on a regular basis. As the Las Vegas Raiders showed earlier in the year, the way to contain the Chiefs' offense is by applying pressure when sending only four pass-rushers in Mahomes' direction with strong cover-three defense behind it-- the polar opposite of what the Dolphins typically do. Another note in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend is recent research showing that there is virtually zero impactful home-field advantage this season in mostly-empty stadiums.
On the opposite side of the football, Kansas City's mediocre defense is largely a product of a poor run defense. The Chiefs rank 30th in the NFL in DVOA allowed against the run, yet they rank 13th in the league in DVOA allowed against the pass. In the modern NFL, games are rarely decided by running the football. However, it is still important to have a competent rushing attack to provide a reasonable threat of running the football (which enhances the passing game's efficiency through play-action) and also to seal victories. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, it is highly unlikely that they are able to outscore Kansas City's prolific scoring attack on the back of a strong run game. Through the air, Miami is far less likely to find success against the Chiefs' secondary, which they have invested in heavily in recent years. The Chiefs have regularly utilized draft capital and spent money on acquiring competent pass-defenders, and their labors are bearing fruit now. Across the last five weeks, Kansas City's defense has held opposing quarterbacks to their season-average passing totals and efficiency numbers while they have forced 24-percent more turnovers than average. Tua Tagovailoa is likely to start for the Dolphins at quarterback once again this weekend, and while he has been a competent game manager with a bright future ahead of him, he is not yet ready to go blow-for-blow with the Kansas City Chiefs to win a shootout.
Overall, this game projects as approximately a 9-point game in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs. At the current price of -7 (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook, we will have a 1.14-unit wager on the Kansas City Chiefs to cover the spread this weekend.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ CHICAGO BEARS
PICK: Houston Texans -1.5, risk 1.1 units to win 1.0 unit
Although we bet against the Houston Texans last weekend, there is value backing Romeo Crennel's side this weekend when they head to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears. Despite losing three of their top five receivers ahead of last week's game, the Houston Texans proved capable of moving the ball through the air thanks to the heroics of Deshuan Watson at quarterback. Watson is undeniably one of the league's most impressive quarterbacks, but lackluster coaching has limited him early in his career. Now, with Romeo Crennel letting him loose as the interim head coach, Watson is playing some of the best football of his career-- even if it isn't regularly converting into wins in the short-term. Watson tallied over 340 passing yards last weekend with Keke Coutee and Brandin Cooks as his top two wide receivers. The former, much like Watson, has been let loose since the firing of Bill O'Brien as the team's head coach. Coutee was seemingly always in O'Brien's dog-house, and he could never carve out a consistent role in the offense despite the impressive displays of receiving talent he put on tape in his limited action. Coutee erupted last week for 8 receptions and 141 yards in his first game atop the team's depth chart alongside Brandin Cooks. Opposite Houston's young scoring attack headlined by a potential All-Pro quarterback, the Chicago Bears' defense has taken a nose-dive since their Week 12 bye. Early in the season, Chicago's defense was the only reason they were ever in a position to win games with either Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles at quarterback. However, across the last two weeks, the Bears have allowed almost 38 points-per-game to opposing offenses. Chicago was the preeminent bend-but-don't-break defense earlier on this season, but the pressure their own offense has applied to them throughout their six-game losing skid has finally broken them. This unit has seemingly quit on head coach Matt Nagy, and they have one foot out the door waiting for the end of the 2020 season and presumably the end of the Nagy-Trubisky era in the Windy City.
Offensively, the Chicago Bears are one of the most unwatchable teams in the NFL. Mitchell Trubisky was benched earlier this season due to a slew of uninspiring performances in the final year of his contract, but the team was no better with Nick Foles at the helm. With Foles injured, Trubisky has stepped back into the starting lineup, and the offense is still sputtering. The issues with this unit begin at the top-- the play-calling is horrific. Matt Nagy calls an uncreative, inefficient, and predictable offense that applies very little pressure to opposing defenses. David Montgomery is not a threat capable of forcing opposing defenses to put eight men in the box, making them susceptible against the pass. Allen Robinson is the lone bright spot in this offense; he has consistently produced throughout his career despite horrific quarterback play at every stop along the way. Unfortunately, Mitchell Trubisky is incapable of reading defenses and getting the ball to Robinson accurately and on-time, rendering the former Nittany Lion's play-making ability useless within this offense. Although Houston's defense is unimpressive itself, where it ranks 27th in total DVOA allowed this season, the Bears do not have the makings of a team ripe to take advantage of this weakness. Expect this to be an ugly all-around performance from the Chicago Bears, as they are likely to get shredded by Deshaun Watson and company on offense, while the Bears struggle to score points on a mediocre defense.
After factoring in the newly-discovered lack of home-field advantage, the Houston Texans project as nearly 4-point favorites over the Chicago Bears here in Week 14. Given the current line, we have a 1.1-unit wager on the Texans to cover the 1.5-point spread in their trip up north this weekend.
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam with any questions, comments, or concerns about the upcoming weekend of football!