A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
They gave us 8 names.
If you want all of the players, keep on reading. If you just want the top guys, here are the three who received the most votes:
- Teddy Bridgewater - 8 votes
- Philip Rivers - 6 votes
- Gardner Minshew - 5 votes
NOTE: We know all these different opinions can be a lot. And certainly, not everyone agrees on everything.
If you want to cut straight to the chase and get our "Bottom Line" for where we project every player right down to the last yard, you can see that here. That's our Bottom Line and where we plant the Footballguys Flag for all these players.
If you'd like to see more detail about how the staff sees different players, here is every wide receiver who was mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 8 Votes
Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina
Phil Alexander: If Carolina's season comes together on the field the way it looks like it will on paper, a path to an elite fantasy season exists for Bridgewater. The Panthers defense ranked 32nd against the run last year and lost their franchise linebacker, Luke Keuchly, to retirement. Opponents should be able to impose their will on Carolina's depleted defense, forcing Bridgewater and co. to keep their foot on the pedal in the passing game for all four quarters most weeks. Considering his top weapons -- Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Ian Thomas -- thrive in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, Bridgewater's accuracy on short-area throws should prove valuable.
Sigmund Bloom: This answer is too easy. Bridgewater doesn't have a track record of producing like a QB1, but he'll never be set up better for that level of scoring. The Panthers have three talented wide receivers plus Christian McCaffrey, they have a completely overhauled defense that will likely be overmatched, and Bridgewater's offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, knows him from their time together in New Orleans and helped create one of the best college football offenses of all time last year. If Kyle Allen can flirt with fantasy relevance in this situation, but with less ability, a less inventive offensive coordinator, and one fewer legit deep threat (Robby Anderson), then Bridgewater can follow through on the flirtations and be a fantasy-relevant quarterback this year.
Andrew Davenport: It is easy to disparage Bridgewater for his failure to throw the ball downfield with New Orleans last year. But according to NFL's Next Gen Stats both Bridgewater and Brees ranked in the bottom four quarterbacks in the league in Intended Air Yards. This suggests that maybe it wasn't all Bridgewater's fault for the lack of depth on his passes, rather it was part of what the Saints wanted from their quarterbacks. Now he gets the chance to play for several bright offensive coaches and has a plethora of weapons at his disposal. The NFC South, plus a poor defense, should put Bridgewater in a lot of positive game scripts to pile up points.
Jeff Haseley: The issue for Bridgewater isn't moving the ball, it's scoring once he gets close. Enter Joe Brady, who was the conductor of the majestic orchestra that was Joe Burrow and the LSU Tigers last year. In 2018, Joe Burrow and the Tigers had the 38th ranked offense in FBS. In 2019 Joe Brady joined the staff and was given the role of passing game coordinator. He excelled particularly when LSU was in the red zone. Virtually the same team finished 1st in offense in FBS and Joe Burrow set collegiate records with 60 touchdown passes and 5,761 passing yards while the team scored 48.4 points per game and 401 passing yards per game. The difference-maker who can elevate Bridgewater into fantasy respectability is Joe Brady. If Bridgewater executes the plan to exploit defenses and if Brady is as good as advertised, he could finish in the top 15 or possibly top 12.
Ryan Hester: A porous defense and a bold offensive coaching staff could put Bridgewater in fantasy-friendly spots. Combine that with the fact that his preference for short-to-intermediate passes aligns with his two best skill players (Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore), and that's a recipe for surprising success.
Jeff Pasquino: Teddy Bridgewater takes over in Carolina as the starting quarterback after signing a two-year deal with the Panthers. Bridgewater suffered a gruesome injury several years back in Minnesota, and then he had to prove himself as the backup in New Orleans. When Drew Brees was injured, Bridgewater stepped in and showed that he can not only manage a game but also lead his team towards victory. Now he takes over in Carolina with a star tailback, a solid tight end and three very capable wide receivers at his disposal. Bridgewater is a cheap selection for a fantasy backup quarterback option, but his upside could elevate him towards a Top 12 level if everything falls into place in Carolina.
Matt Waldman: Offensive coordinator Joe Brady brings his scheme to Carolina from LSU. The Tigers had a quarterback who lacks top-end arm velocity but has the skill to move around the pocket and find the open man when the design of the play breaks down. Sounds a lot like the quarterback slated to start for him in Carolina, doesn't it? Bridgewater reads the middle of the field well and should mesh with the strengths of his receivers D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey. Look for Bridgewater to get within 100-200 yards of 4,000 as a passer and flirt with 25 scores.
Jason Wood: Whether Teddy Bridgewater has fantasy relevance comes down to whether you think he's the quarterback we saw in his first 30+ NFL starts, of the one we saw in his final few starts in New Orleans last year. Bridgewater was a glorified game manager in his early years in Minnesota and then battled back from a career-threatening injury before landing with the Saints as Drew Brees' backup. He started five games last year, winning all of them, and earned his new role as the Panthers starter in the process. Bridgewater's first few starts in New Orleans showed the same propensity for short, high-percentage throws even when downfield options were there. But he settled into the role and embraced the vertical routes in the last few starts. If offensive coordinator Joe Brady can entice Bridgewater to stay aggressive, he has top-10 upside. If not, his ADP probably isn't unfair where it stands.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Philip Rivers, Indianapolis
Andrew Davenport: Poor Philip Rivers played at a consistently high level for the Chargers and they repeatedly refused to give him help on the offensive line. It strains the mind to remember when they had a line in the top half of the league. As a result, Rivers got by on anticipation and skill, both of which couldn't support him last year when his arm seemed to be going the way of late-stage Peyton Manning. But enter the Colts and their top-3 offensive line. They'll give Rivers the time to throw and show that he isn't quite done with high-level football. His complement of weapons is at least as good or better than it was in Los Angeles, so he's a cheap option who should be able to produce another solid fantasy season. Fantasy drafters are ignoring Rivers so it shouldn't cost anything to take a shot on him in drafts.
Jeff Haseley: In his 16 years in the league, Philip Rivers has surpassed 4,000 yards passing 11 times, including 11 of the last 12 seasons. He may be in the sunset of his career, but until proven otherwise, he is still a confident, proven quarterback with a solid supporting cast led by veteran T.Y. Hilton. The Colts also have a young corps of receiving talent in Zach Pascal, Parris Campbell, and rookie Michael Pittman Jr As a fantasy quarterback, he has finished inside the top 15 in each of the last seven seasons. A drop in production could come this season, but until then, he is still a viable fantasy commodity who can be drafted as a QB2.
Andy Hicks: The arrival of Philip Rivers in Indianapolis is one of the more intriguing stories of 2020. After 16 years with the Chargers, we get to find out if Rivers was propping up his former side or holding them back. With the Colts he should be a breath of fresh air after Jacoby Brissett struggled to manage the full-time role. The Colts have built a much stronger offense, in theory, than his time with the Chargers. The offensive line is one of the best in the league, a problem often with his former team. There is a strong three-headed monster at running back and a potential explosive corp of receivers. The youth of the offense may be an issue for a veteran needing a side that is ready now, but with Rivers already familiar with this offense, an explosive start is more than feasible.
Chad Parsons: Rivers is one of the Rodney Dangerfield quarterbacks in 2020. He gets no respect despite three top-6 finishes and another eight seasons in the QB7-12 range over his 14 years in the NFL. Rivers enters a Colts offense with a strong offensive line, T.Y. Hilton primed for a bounce-back, Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor notably added from the NFL Draft, and Jack Doyle a sturdy tight end option. Rivers optimizes offenses with the keyword being protection. Rivers will have it with a much better offensive line than he had of late with the Chargers and a run game which can alleviate pressure from Rivers to be the centerpiece of the offense at all times. The two previous times in Rivers' career he came off of a QB2-level performance, he followed with top-5 seasons. Rivers was QB17 in 2019 as another one of his down years with an opportunity to, once again, crush his draft stock in 2020.
Jeff Pasquino: Rivers joins his first new team in his 17-year career as the new starter for Indianapolis. The good news is that he knows the offense thanks in part to his long history with Frank Reich when both were in San Diego. Rivers is a solid quarterback that never misses a start, but he is getting overlooked because of what the Colt offense looked like last season. Remember that last August, Andrew Luck surprised everyone by retiring, shocking the Colts and forcing them towards a more conservative, run-heavy offense. All that can change this year behind Rivers, who has T.Y. Hilton, two strong tight ends, and several young but talented wide receivers to round out the group.
Jason Wood: Philip Rivers has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback eight times in his storied career, but he hasn't cracked the Top 12 in consecutive years. That's part of the reason the Chargers moved on and are planning a rebuild around rookie Justin Herbert. Rivers wasn't unemployed for long, as he takes over in Indianapolis. Many think the Colts are a competent passer short of Super Bowl contention, which makes the signing logical. But does he still have the skill set to be a fantasy starter? The Colts receiving corps is unproven beyond T.Y. Hilton, who has battled a litany of injuries in recent years. The good news is Rivers knows Frank Reich's system intimately from their days in San Diego, so if the Colts young pass-catchers can make a leap, Rivers could surprise with another strong year.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville
James Brimacombe: Minshew was forced into action early as a rookie when Nick Foles went down with an injury. In 14 games as a rookie, Minshew threw for 3,271 yards and 21 touchdowns and finished as the QB20 on the season. Now with Foles out of the picture the Jaguars feel like they have something special with Minshew as he seemed to jump into the middle of the fire with ease last year. Now with a complete offseason under his belt and successful game experience, Minshew will be that much more of a leader for this Jaguars offense in year number two.
Andrew Davenport: Although it wasn't always a smooth ride for Minshew as a rookie, as he was benched for Nick Foles after the starter returned from injury, he still was fairly impressive and was a solid fantasy contributor. In 14 games he almost cracked the top 20 fantasy quarterbacks as a rookie in a somewhat limited offense. He also possesses sneaky rushing upside as he tallied 344 rushing yards despite failing to score on the ground. With that many yards, he was a bit unlucky to not punch a couple in, so it stands to reason he could approach 400 rushing yards and 2-3 rushing touchdowns over a full season. If he takes a step forward as a player and passer he's going to push for high-end QB2 numbers, and the rushing numbers are a bonus for 4 points per passing touchdown leagues. Minshew is a good gamble late in drafts.
David Dodds: When your team only has Joshua Dobbs, Mike Glennon, and Jake Luton as your backups, it says a lot about their desire to develop you into their franchise quarterback. Minshew had moments in 2019 and finished with 3,271 passing yards, 21 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions. He also averaged over 5 yards a carry and amassed 344 rushing yards. He managed all of this despite playing in just 14 of the 16 games.
Jeff Haseley: Gardner Minshew surprised a lot of people in 2019 after he found himself starting at quarterback for the Jaguars after Nick Foles was injured. He finished with 21 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions, totaling 3,271 yards passing. Not too bad for a rookie quarterback who was drafted in the sixth round. The Jaguars like him enough to part ways with Nick Foles whom they envisioned as their long term answer at quarterback. Now that mindset has shifted to Minshew. Like most rookie quarterbacks, Minshew is expected to improve in year two, especially now that he knows he is in the plans for the Jaguars present and future. To add to his fantasy appeal, Minshew was 5th in quarterback rushing yards (344) trailing only Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Deshaun Watson.
Matt Waldman: Minshew displayed excellent pocket management for an NFL quarterback, much less a rookie. His production should take a climb now that he'll have an off-season as a starter--even if the restrictions of the pandemic may hurt that development a bit. The addition of Tyler Eifert and Laviska Shenault should add some versatility to this passing game and get Minshew north of 4,000 passing yards. Most important, so should a healthy offensive line, which he didn't have last year.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Derek Carr, Oakland
Chad Parsons: Carr is certainly on a shorter leash than previous seasons with Marcus Mariota added as the backup. However, his weapons have been less than the ideal of late and the Raiders added Jason Witten, Henry Ruggs, and Bryan Edwards of note this offseason. Carr was an MVP candidate a few seasons ago and has a top-10 fantasy finish to his profile, but he has been a sturdy top-20 option annual as a high-floor play. Carr is a likely bet to surpass his draft stock in 2020 with QB1 upside if there are any weapons upgraded from the 'Darren Waller and what else?' feel of 2019.
Jeff Pasquino: Last year Carr posted a career-best 4,055 yards, his second 4,000-yard season in a row - and he did that without any receivers exceeding 50 receptions thanks in part to Antonio Brown’s release from the team prior to Week 1. The Raiders are looking to excite their new fan base in Las Vegas by adding significant skill-position talent, starting with first-round selection Henry Ruggs, two third-rounders (Lynn Bowden and Bryan Edwards), along with veterans Nelson Agholor and tight end Jason Witten. Marcus Mariota signed a significant contract to push Carr and bolster the depth at quarterback, but Carr should hold on to the starting job after two solid seasons. He has been a solid fantasy QB2 for his entire career (QB14-QB20 for six seasons) and has strong upside due to the added surrounding talent and the new energy expected as the team starts the Las Vegas era.
Sam Darnold, NY Jets
James Brimacombe: Darnold is entering his third season in the league and has played a total of 13 games in each of those seasons finishing as QB25 and QB28 with the Jets not showing much on offense. The hope for Darnold is to play a full 16 game season and help the passing offense improve. Darnold will have Le'Veon Bell and Frank Gore in the backfield who can be solid passing options for him. At wide receiver, it is the trio of Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, and Denzel Mims that will look to help out Darnold's numbers and hopefully at tight end it is Chris Herndon who can put his off-field issues and onfield injuries behind him and be a go-to target for Darnold.
Andy Hicks: The progress Sam Darnold was expected to make in his second year was heavily derailed by his mono diagnosis early in the season. It must also be remembered he is still a very young man with much growth at his disposal. His receiving corp was a major weakness last year and the addition of Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman, plus the return of Chris Herndon at tight end should improve it. A second year in the same offense will be important and while I don’t think we see Darnold at his best this year, he should build nicely into a solid QB2 with better to come down the road.
Tyrod Taylor, LA Chargers
Sigmund Bloom: Usually we project the first-round pick quarterback to take over sooner than later, but the Chargers could be an exception this year. Head coach Anthony Lynn won with Taylor in Buffalo, and he's not tanking for Trevor this year, he's trying to win. Taylor should remain the starter as long as the team is in the playoff hunt, and his running ability gives him a back door to QB1 production, which has been within his reach during his stint as a starter. The Chargers also open with Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Carolina, which should get Taylor off on the right foot.
Ryan Hester: It's doubtful that Justin Herbert starts from Week 1 in a pandemic-altered preseason. We know what quarterbacks with rushing ability to fantasy football. For as long as Taylor is the unquestioned starter, he has QB1 upside in any given week. He's being drafted late enough that even a few weeks in the beginning of the year can add value to a late-round quarterback drafter's team.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami
Phil Alexander: With COVID-19 limiting off-season preparation for NFL teams, it would be surprising if Tua Tagovailoa makes many (or any) starts as a rookie, even if he's as healthy as he claims to be. Fitzpatrick ranked as the cumulative QB3 over the second half of last season and would be an easy pick inside the top-20 quarterbacks if we knew Tagovailoa wasn't a threat. He's a worthwhile backup in 12-team leagues for as long as he's starting in Miami.
Drew Lock, Denver
Andy Hicks: Fantasy football isn’t always about statistics or past performance. Future projection and instinct are key ingredients in success. Drew Lock isn’t considered a starting fantasy quarterback in 2020. Why? Denver has gone all-in on helping Lock succeed. Joe Flacco was cut, while Melvin Gordon was signed to partner Phillip Lindsay giving Denver an excellent one-two punch. To accompany rising star Courtland Sutton at wide receiver, Denver used their early picks on Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. At tight end, Noah Fant was the 2019 first-rounder and had an excellent season. Locks favorite target in college, Albert Okwuegbunam was even drafted. All the pieces have been assembled, but the key was how Lock looked in his limited action. He looked like a franchise quarterback. Composed, all the throws in the book and leadership. Maybe 2020 is too soon, but draft Lock as your backup and it’s a no-lose situation. His future in dynasty leagues looks pretty good.