Week 10 highlighted the need to balance trends within each offense against their matchup. No matter how positive a game environment might be, the full range of outcomes has to be considered. Carson Wentz facing the Giants’ secondary (who he had just tagged for 2 touchdowns three weeks ago) couldn’t even produce double-digit fantasy points. Derek Carr, on a team that scored 37 points against Denver, only threw for 154 yards and not a single touchdown. Duke Johnson Jr with a full workload only had 54 yards in the wind against Cleveland. Each team has their own set of tendencies that can help set that range of outcomes as we go over some of our rosters. With the playoffs just around the corner, I took a look at three more players that exited Week 10 making fantasy headlines for better or for worse.
Quarterback: Jared Goff, Rams
Week 8 Results: 22.5 (Projected), 10.5 (Actual)
Everyone’s excited to start most of the Rams’ offensive players in fantasy. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are mainstays with Josh Reynolds becoming a larger factor over the last six weeks. The running back trio of Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson, and Cam Akers is infuriating, but there’s value if you know which one to start each week. Even the tight ends have some appeal given the nature of their position. Jared Goff doesn’t carry the same appeal. The same guy we’re depending on to put the others in positive positions to score isn’t a consideration in DFS and is tough to trust in season-long matchups. Last week was a perfect example. Seattle entered Week 10 with a historically bad secondary. They had allowed two or more passing touchdowns in every game except in Week 2, but Cam Newton still had a pair of rushing touchdowns. Despite all of the positives to set up Goff, he barely crossed the 300-yard mark without any touchdowns to break the streak. The disappointing finish prompted a deeper look into the Rams’ offense and what we can expect out of Goff over the next few weeks.
Advice Moving Forward:
Goff is a QB2 that shouldn’t be viewed as a must-start unless the matchup is positive. The Rams’ offense is different from 2019. They ended last season 13th in neutral passing and Goff attempted a career-high 626 attempts. His current pace of 35.7 attempts per game has him more in line with his 2018 totals than 2019, but his touchdown rate (4.0%) is woefully below average. In addition, Los Angeles isn’t much of a passing offense once they get into the red zone. Goff in 2019 attempted a pass from within the 20-yard line on 49.0% of their offensive plays. This season, that same rate has dropped 40.9%. Last week’s results (37 attempts, 302 yards, 3 rushing touchdowns) aren’t a bug. They’re a feature of the offense in 2020. In addition, they’ve lost their star LT Andrew Whitworth which will cause problems for Los Angeles’ passing game. Few quarterbacks have as disastrous splits when under pressure than Jared Goff. He’s averaged 0.4 EPA per Play without pressure and -0.7 EPA per Play when under duress. Goff’s next three opponents include Tampa Bay, San Francisco, and Arizona. All three are in the top half of the league in pressure rate which will be a key issue for the Rams’ offense as they approach each game. Since Goff doesn’t add much value on the ground, fantasy managers should consider other options out on the waiver wire especially this close to the fantasy playoffs.
Running Back: James Conner, Steelers
Week 8 Results: 16.5 (Projected), 6.8 (Actual)
The Steelers are undefeated with a legitimate shot to maintain an unbeaten record through the remainder of the season. Normally, we’d be excited to roster the primary running back in such an offense. But Conner has been frustrating to watch. His 15.8 PPG through the first seven weeks of the season has dwindled to 8.6 PPG over the last few weeks. We’ve seen Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland mix in while the Steelers work their way down the field. Seemingly all of the touchdowns have been scored through the air. After another poor performance in Week 10, I dug a bit deeper into Conner’s usage in hopes of finding some indicators he’ll still have some value as we head into the fantasy playoffs.
Advice Moving Forward:
Conner will likely be ranked as an RB1/2, but his touchdown expectation should be lowered depending on the matchup. The biggest indicator is the slight shift in their offense at Conner’s expense.
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Week
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Red Zone Passing Rate
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Week 1
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75.0%
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Week 2
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44.4%
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Week 3
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50.0%
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Week 5
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33.3%
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Week 6
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22.2%
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Week 7
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54.5%
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Week 8
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71.4%
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Week 9
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66.7%
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Week 10
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66.7%
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Looking at the last few weeks, it’s not a surprise that Conner has been a dud for fantasy. Ben Roethlisberger has had an average 68.3% red-zone passing rate over the last three weeks. It’s been great for Ben and the other pass-catchers but has left Conner on the outside looking in on the touchdown celebrations. Conner scored a rushing touchdown in four consecutive games. Unsurprisingly, they were in Weeks 2-6 when their red-zone passing rate was at its lowest. However, the positive takeaway is he’s not losing work to the other running backs on the offense. Conner has handled the majority of the running back touch share in every game except for Week 1. He’s actually seen his highest touch share (80.3%) over the last month of games, but it’s coincided with Ben being a top-12 quarterback in half of those contests. Their upcoming matchups are a mixed bag with Jacksonville this week, but Baltimore in Week 13 and Cincinnati in Week 15. Fantasy managers may be forced to start him, but either have other options or compensate in your roster with slightly higher variance plays to offset another poor performance from Conner.
Wide Receiver: Michael Pittman Jr, Colts
Week 8 Results: 7.2 (Projected), 19.2 (Actual)
Michael Pittman is yet another rookie wide receiver showing out in 2020. He’s yet to score a touchdown but popped up in the Top 24 in Week 10 after cracking the 100-yard mark for the first time in his career. He’s surpassed T.Y. Hilton and the rest of the wide receivers in targets and the production is turning heads in the fantasy community. After his best performance of the season (on just eight targets), I looked at his three-week trend since returning from his calf surgery and what we can expect from the USC product as we look towards the playoffs.
Advice Moving Forward:
Pittman should be rostered and considered as a WR3/FLEX heading into the playoffs. Let’s walk through Pittman’s usage. He’s maintained a steady workload over the last two weeks after working his way back from his calf surgery earlier in the season. After having a 58% snap rate in Week 8 (his first game back), he’s averaged 84% of the offensive snaps which is the most of any wide receiver on the Colts. His target share has climbed with his increased snaps. He leads the team with 15 targets over their last two contests (20% target share) along with the most air yards which speak to his growing connection with Philip Rivers. Finally, his route pattern shows diversification that removes any flukiness to his usage. His Week 10 chart shows targets at all levels of the field which is the hallmark of a team’s primary receiver. Plus, he had three targets from within the 20-yard line which will lead to touchdowns should the usage continue. Jonathan Taylor’s shortcomings in the running game have been a positive for Colts’ passing game. Philip Rivers has attempted more passes over their last month of games (39.8) than the early portion of the season (30.8). It should keep Pittman as a viable fantasy option as we assess their upcoming schedule. Indianapolis has a favorable schedule after Week 11 with matchups against Tennessee, Las Vegas, and two games against Houston. While they face Pittsburgh in Week 16, fantasy managers should consider working Pittman into their starting roster on their way to the playoffs.