10 Divisive Early-Round Receivers, and When to Draft Them

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You don't need us to tell you Michael Thomas is the No. 1 wide receiver, almost everyone agrees. Fourteen of fifteen staff ranked Thomas No. 1 in our PPR rankings, and the outlier has him No. 2 behind Davante Adams. Even if we made a case for another receiver (and we're not going to), it wouldn't matter -- Thomas is the first receiver drafted in the vast majority of leagues.

But what about those receivers where there isn't a consensus view? At Footballguys, unlike many sites, we allow all of our staff to share their rankings. In fact, we encourage it. But the reality is most subscribers focus on the consensus of all of our disparate viewpoints. With someone like Thomas, where 14 of 15 rankers have him No. 1, our individual opinions don’t matter much. But what about the players you’re targeting who we see quite differently?

Those are the picks that can make or break your draft. In the first three rounds of a 12-team draft, 14 to 16 receivers will come off the board. Two or three rankings spots may not seem like much, but in the early rounds, it's the difference between passing on someone or targeting them.

With the draft season underway, here are the highest-variance early-round receivers and how you should handle them.

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 11.5
• Average Draft Position: 10^th

The Details: Moore has an average ranking of 11.5 among our staff, although the 5.0 standard deviation speaks to the wide disagreement about just how good he is going to be this year. Our most optimistic ranker thinks he'll finish WR6, while the naysayer in our crew sees him as WR24. His ADP is WR10, as is our staff median ranking. Nine of fifteen staff expect Moore to meet or exceed his ADP, while six do not. Two-thirds of our staff expect Moore to be no worse than a top-12 receiver.

The Upside Case by Jeff Pasquino: Carolina is revamping its passing game, starting with Teddy Bridgewater under center. The Panthers only scored 17 passing touchdowns last season (with Moore hauling in four), so that number has plenty of room to improve. Moore put up elite numbers with Carolina in his second year, and he will be the top receiving target outside the numbers. Moore and Bridgewater need to build rapport prior to the season start, but he looks well-positioned to push for WR1 status in the new offense.

The Downside Case by Jason Wood: Moore is being drafted as a No. 1 fantasy receiver, and that leaves no margin for error. He broke out in his second season with 87 catches for 1,175 yards but was targeted 135 times. With a new head coach (Matt Rhule), a new offensive coordinator (Joe Brady) calling plays in the NFL for the first time, a new quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater) who has been afraid to throw downfield for most of his career, and a credible new outside receiver in Robby Anderson, Moore has far too much volatility and risk to draft as a cornerstone of your roster. Volatility is okay if the downside comes with week-winning upside, but Moore has been the least explosive receiver among top fantasy picks. In 31 career games, he only has two top-12 weekly performances. By comparison, Tyler Lockett is second-worst among the top 30 drafted receivers, and he stands at 15.9%. The average among the top drafted pass-catchers is 26.7%. Why pay WR1 prices for someone who never gives you WR1 weeks?

Conclusion: Fairly Valued As A Low-End WR1

Putting my own reservations aside (note: I wrote the downside case for him), the staff is quite confident in Moore's ability to deliver WR1 numbers this year. 10 out of 15 rankers see him as no worse than WR12, and nine of those believe he'll meet or exceed his WR10 average draft position, in PPR formats.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 13.3
• Average Draft Position: 13^th

The Details: Talk about divisive! There is a cavernous 25-spot differential between the high ranker (WR3) and the low (WR28), with a standard deviation of nearly 5.9 spots. On average, the staff ranks Smith-Schuster 13.3, with a median ranking of 12. That compares to his ADP of WR13, so essentially in-line. Look at the dispersion for the Steelers' No. 1 receiver -- at least one staffer ranks him WR3, WR7, WR8, WR11, WR12, WR13, WR15, WR17, WR19, and WR28. Two-thirds (ten of fifteen) staff expect Smith-Schuster to meet or exceed his ADP.

The Upside Case by Jordan McNamara: Smith-Schuster is rebounding from a lost season. In almost every way imaginable, his 2019 season went badly. He was injured and lost offensive weapons en masse. His Hall of Fame Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger only played two games before he was injured and missed the rest of the season because of injury. Through 41 games in his career, Smith-Schuster has played 30 games with Roethlisberger and 11 without Roethlisberger. When Roethlisberger plays, Smith-Schuster averages 16.14 PPG compared to 10.66 PPG without Roethlisberger. Over a 16-game pace, Roethlisberger would have been WR7 last year compared to WR37 without Roethlisberger, a difference of about two-thirds of a regular-season win. I expect a big bounce back in 2020.

The Downside Case by Andy Hicks: Twelve catches for 109 yards and zero touchdowns. That’s a nice game for a receiver. It is, however, not a good result for the last five games you have played. This is where we are at when assessing JuJu Smith-Schuster. Some of us think that the departure of Antonio Brown proved that Smith-Schuster is not an NFL number one receiver. Another concern is that Pittsburgh just keeps drafting receivers with high picks. Smith-Schuster himself was taken with the 62nd pick in the 2017 draft. James Washington the 60th pick in 2018, Diontae Johnson the 66th in 2019, and this year the Steelers went even higher with Chase Claypool and the 49th overall pick. With the luxury of depth at the position, it would not surprise if JuJu leaves after this season.

Conclusion: Full Speed Ahead

No disrespect to the naysayers among us, but the Steelers had a quarterback named Duck for a chunk of last season. Everything about the Steelers year on offense was so uncharacteristic; it's impossible to view it as predictive unless Ben Roethlisberger isn't healthy. But camp reports indicate he's 100% healthy and doesn't have a gut, for once. He's the No. 1 receiver in a pass-happy offense with a quarterback that should have a chip on his shoulder as he tries to make one more Super Bowl push. Two-thirds of us expect Smith-Schuster to deliver WR1 numbers, including many of us who see him as a top-8 option. Draft with confidence.

Odell Beckham, Jr, Cleveland Browns

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 14.9
• Average Draft Position: 14^th

The Details: Beckham is not only divisive among our staff, he's probably the most divisive receiver in the fantasy analyst community. On average, we rank him 14.9, which compares to his ADP of WR14. But the median ranking is WR16, with the highest expecting a total bounceback (WR7) and the lowest fearing further declines into the fringes (WR31). Seven of fifteen staff expect Beckham to meet or exceed ADP, including five who expect top-10 value. Eight of us expect him to fall short of his average draft position, but only two expect him to drop out of the Top 20.

The Upside Case by Sigmund Bloom: Enjoy the opportunity to get Beckham in the third round. If the hernia he played with all year was the main reason he fell off a cliff statistically, you'll be happy if you snag him at ADP. He should be the top target on downfield passes off of play-action in an offense that forces teams to play the Run.

The Downside Case by Matt Waldman: There's a lot to love about Beckham's talent, and the Browns' rushing attack should generate terrific play-action opportunities for Baker Mayfield to target an open Beckham for big plays. The offense also generates a lower ceiling for the passing game because the run-heavy attack will limit the passing volume that used to be the focal point. If you look into the Vikings scheme from 2019, you'll also notice a significant number of plays where the offense placed only one wide receiver on the field. While Beckham is a decent blocker, Jarvis Landry is among the best blockers in the game and most likely earns that single-receiver role when the Browns roll with three tight ends or two tight ends and fullback Andy Janovich. Beckham still has a ceiling of 1,100-1,200 yards and 8-12 scores, but trusting Mayfield to be this efficient after learning his third scheme in three years is too optimistic. Beckham should earn 1,000 yards and 5-7 scores. Good, but not great.

Conclusion: A Rorschach Test for Risk Tolerance; Don't Target Him, but Be Open to Selecting Him if He Falls A Bit

You won't find many players who multiple staff expect top-10 value while others fear he's grossly overvalued. But that's what happens when you're on a Hall of Fame trajectory for four seasons, and then injuries and attitude and team change derail your momentum completely. As Sigmund says, Beckham could be a league winner if the dominoes fall into place, we've seen him be an every-week star. But the Browns have so many questions, not the least of which is the quarterback and the pace of play, not to mention the target distribution. He's too risky to count on as your top receiver, but if there are 15+ receivers off the board when you're up, it's a justifiable risk if you feel like your first few picks have high floors.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 18.5
• Average Draft Position: 15^th

The Details: On average, the staff ranks Cooper Kupp 18.5, with a median rank of WR16. That compares to an average draft position of WR15. His most optimistic outlook (WR12) puts him on the low end of the No. 1 receiver tier, while the bearish among us (WR28) see him as a middling No. 3. Notably, our staff is 3.5 spots lower than ADP, on average, which is one of the largest disparities among the top-25 receivers. Six of fifteen rankers think Kupp will meet or exceed ADP, leaving nine who don't.

The Upside Case by Jeff Pasquino: Cooper Kupp was a hot commodity in 2019, as savvy drafters noted that he was performing at a WR2 level in 2018 through eight weeks before a season-ending injury. He more than doubled his 2018 numbers last year as both he and Robert Woods dominated the receiver targets in Los Angeles. With Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks out of the picture, Jared Goff will need to throw early and often and rely on Woods and Kupp.

The Downside Case by Justin Howe: Kupp is easy to root for as a tough, technical, and deceptively versatile weapon. He's a bull out of the slot - as well as one of the league's most dependable red-zone threats. And he opened 2019 as the fantasy WR2 through 8 weeks, which can't be ignored. But it was frightening to see him slip so far after the Rams' Week 9 bye. His target share plummeted from 28% to 15%, and only a 4-game touchdown streak kept him a WR3 from then on. The biggest culprit was the team's expanded use of double-tight packages; Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett make for a fantastic duo, and they'll limit the Rams' need for multiple wideouts for long stretches. Kupp decisively lost that battle to Robert Woods down the stretch, and even if we project a healthy bounceback, it's hard to find any path to another 94 receptions. Kupp may not be usable as a plug-and-play WR2, which is where he's consistently being drafted.

Conclusion: Leave the Kupp Empty

When the most optimistic of us see Kupp as a fringe WR1, and only 40% think he'll meet ADP, it's an easy pass unless he falls a round or two beyond expectations. Kupp is talented, but the Rams started winning games last year when the offense went to 12-personnel. Sean McVay is analytical and does what it takes to win, regardless of the fantasy consequences. Kupp isn't a terrible receiver, but almost everyone on staff prefers three or four other targets in his draft tier.

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 19.9
• Average Draft Position: 20^th

The Details: The staff's average ranking, 19.9, is in line with his ADP of WR20, although our median ranking is slightly lower at WR21. The range of projected outcomes isn't quite as divisive as other receivers on this list, with 19 spots separating his champion (WR8) from his detractor (WR27). The WR8 ranking is a real outlier; no one else expects Allen to finish in the Top 12. Five staff expect Allen to exceed ADP, while eight do not.

The Upside Case by Andy Hicks: After an injury-plagued start to his career, Keenan Allen has been a star. For the last three years, he has at least 97 receptions and 1196 receiving yards in every season, as well as six touchdowns each year since 2017. Why then does he seem unwanted at his current ADP? Does the departure of Philip Rivers affect Allen's production that much? That is the crux of the issue. The Chargers offensive coordinator is the same one that took over early in the 2019 season, the receiving and running back group hasn’t changed significantly. Will Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert shy away from their best receiver? Despite this being his eighth season, he is still well under 30 and seeking a new deal. His current ADP has a fail-safe mechanism of being well below his current production. A very solid WR2 to take when the opportunity presents itself.

The Downside Case by Sigmund Bloom: Allen is still one of the best in the game, but it is difficult to bet the over on his fantasy expectations this year because he'll be playing Tyrod Taylor or rookie Justin Herbert at quarterback. The Chargers pass offense won't be timing-based, and Taylor isn't known for getting the ball out quickly as a passer, so Allen's separation skills might be squandered in what should be a conservative passing attack. Even with a discount from last year's price, Allen isn't worth the cost.

Conclusion: The Discounted ADP is Warranted, Don't Overpay

Don't look at the name and pedigree and think you're getting a bargain at WR20. You may be getting fair value, many on staff believe he'll put up reliable WR2 numbers. But it's hard to decipher how a Tyrod Taylor-led team is going to lead to 150 targets for Allen, and he needs that kind of volume to outperform his cost unless you're forecasting a career-year for touchdown receptions. We wouldn't avoid Allen at his expected draft-day price, just don't get an itchy trigger finger and draft him earlier.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 23.1
• Average Draft Position: 23^rd

The Details: A house divided! McLaurin is the most volatile of the consensus top-25 receivers, with a standard deviation of 6.6 spots. On average, the staff ranks him at 23.1, which matches his WR23 ADP. But the road to matching ADP is a rocky one, with a whopping 28 draft spots separating the top (WR14) and bottom (WR42) rankings. Two-thirds of the staff expect McLaurinto meet or exceed ADP, but the other five think he'll drop out of the Top 25 this year, despite a dynamite rookie season.

The Upside Case by Dan Hindery: McLaurin put up 919 yards and 7 touchdowns as a rookie in just 14 games. The numbers are impressive without context but really pop when you consider just how poor the passing offense was. Washington finished dead last in the NFL with just 175.8 passing yards per game. McLaurin is currently priced as if the top receiver in a passing offense that will again be inept. There is no downside given how secure his lead role. However, there is a significant upside if the Washington offense takes a step forward. Dwayne Haskins showed some flashes in the final two games of his rookie season and has worked hard on his physical conditioning this offseason. If Haskins takes even a modest step forward, McLaurin has legitimate WR1 upside.

The Downside Case by Andy Hicks: There is no doubt Terry McLaurin started the 2019 season with a bang, but then what? In his advantage is a very poor receiving group at Washington, but the whole offense doesn’t fill me with much confidence at all. Ron Rivera has a significant rebuild on his hands if he can be given time. Maybe Dwayne Hoskins will look better than he did in 2019 and he needs to if this team is to have any chance in 2020. Back to McLaurin. He averaged less than four receptions and 56 yards a game after his early-season peak and only had two touchdowns in that time. If we play the fun game of pro-rata on his last nine appearances, he barely finishes as a borderline WR3. He may have upside, but there is some shocking downside that others near his draft slot don’t have.

Conclusion: Fairly Valued at ADP

The WR42 ranking is like an anchor and overstates our collective views. Even accounting for that Draconian ranking, ten of out fifteen staff think McLaurin will at least match his expected draft position. Six rankers (40%) believe he'll put up top-20 numbers, which means he should be going a round or so earlier than ADP suggests. McLaurin is a justifiable WR2 target with enough upside to be excited if you land him at or near his expected draft spot.

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 26.8
• Average Draft Position: 26^th

The Details: On the surface, we see Diggs similarly to the industry. Our average ranking of 26.8 is nearly identical to ADP (WR27). But you'll note the 17 spot differential between the top (WR18) and bottom (WR35) rankers. Eight of fifteen staff expect Diggs to at least match his ADP, leaving seven who don't.

The Upside Case by Justin Howe: There are indeed reasons to shy away from Diggs as he steps into a relatively low-volume passing game. The Bills don't throw much, but when they do, they don't feed many mouths. Last season, only two Bills topped 30 receptions - and it's safe to call Diggs one of the team's top two weapons for 2020. That keeps Diggs' floor comfortably high, and his ceiling has been on display for years. Diggs may not be in a spot to chase 100 catches, but he provides great ADP value over a handful of less proven guys in his range.

The Downside Case by Drew Davenport: Diggs has gone from a mediocre fantasy situation to a poor one. Josh Allen has one heck of an arm, but he struggles with deep ball accuracy (all accuracy, to be exact), and is significantly worse in almost every statistical quarterback category when compared with Kirk Cousins. Also, the Bills attempted 461 passes in 2019, 21st in the league, and there is nothing to show that they will change this formula going forward. On top of all of these issues, Diggs now has to compete with the very capable John Brown for targets down the field, whereas in Minnesota, Adam Thielen was more of a natural complement to what Diggs was tasked to do. In almost every single aspect, Diggs' situation has become worse in some regard. He's a perfect candidate to have big games followed by long bouts of inconsistency, so counting on him to deliver last year's numbers isn't wise. Therefore, despite what a dynamic player he is, his ADP is too high for his risk.

Conclusion: Fine As Your WR3

The system and expected pass volume (or lack thereof) have more of us scared off of Diggs than are inspired by him. Less than half of the staff think he'll even finish at his WR26 ADP, so expectations are low. On the other hand, none of us expect him to fall out of the WR3 tier in 12-team leagues, so it's not a pick that will kill you as long as you're not unrealistic. If you prefer high-upside lottery tickets, Diggs isn't your guy. If you want a reliable floor as your No. 3, he's ideal.

Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 30.2
• Average Draft Position: 31^st

The Details: Gallup's ADP (WR31) prices in significant regression from last year's breakout, and is slightly more pessimistic than our median (WR29) and average (30.2) ranking. Our staff believes Gallup will range from bottom-end WR2 (WR23) to disappointing WR4 (WR46), and that's an important distinction since it's the difference between wanting him in your lineup each week, or dreading it. Twelve of fifteen (80%) rankers expect Gallup to meet or exceed ADP.

The Upside Case by Drew Davenport: Those projecting CeeDee Lamb to overtake Gallup are missing some key factors. Lamb has had an abbreviated offseason to get acclimated to the NFL, his quarterback, and the Dallas offense. In addition, even if Lamb starts demanding targets with his play, Randall Cobb left behind 83 targets and over 800 receiving yards when he went to Houston. There is plenty of room for Lamb to grab a role and not affect Gallup at all. In fact, it might be an upset for Lamb to hit the numbers Cobb hit last year. Even beyond that, not many fantasy owners are recognizing that Gallup missed two games and still managed 66 catches (75 catch pace), but more impressively, he hit 1,100 yards in those 14 games. The Dallas offense is going to be one of the best in the league, so the fact that their number two receiver (who is really a 1B to Cooper's 1A) is slipping as far as he is means he is a strong bet to crush his ADP.

The Downside Case by Devin Knotts: This is an offense that I am completely avoiding this season. The pecking order will assuredly be Cooper as the top receiver followed by Gallup and Lamb who I expect to take some time to transition to a consistent role in this offense. The Cowboys offense was propped up last season by some garbage time performances by this passing offense that led to Dak Prescott throwing for 4,900 yards. I expect this to come back down to the 4,500-yard range. Based on ADP, Cooper has an ADP as the 12th wide receiver, which is a slight discount from last year where he finished as the 10th wide receiver, but he was propped up by two massive games in losses to Green Bay and Minnesota in garbage time performances.

Conclusion: How 'Bout Dat Cowboy! -- Run, don't Gallop, to draft Gallup

Gallup is a staff favorite. So much so it was hard to find a downside case to publish. Our staffer who ranks Gallup WR46 didn't have particularly negative things to say, either. With 80% of our rankers expecting Gallup to meet or exceed ADP, there's no reason to fear targeting the third-year receiver, even though rookie CeeDee Lamb looms large beyond 2020.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 30.2
• Average Draft Position: 35^th

The Details: Value alert! Cooks has an ADP of WR35, which is a full 2.5 spots lower than our average ranking (32.5) and two spots lower than the median ranking (WR33). But that's not to say we're a house united. One particularly bullish analyst thinks Cooks will have another top-20 season (WR19), while our most skeptical (WR47) wonders if he's worth drafting at all. Eleven of fifteen staff expect Cooks to meet or exceed ADP, including three who see him as a top-25 option. Three rankers believe Cooks will fall out of the Top 36, which helps explain the monstrous 7.7 standard deviation among our outlooks.

The Upside Case by Jason Wood: Brandin Cooks will be a top-20 fantasy receiver and is the cheapest bargain on draft boards entering the heart of the drafting season. I wrote a Player Spotlight outlining my thoughts. The crux of my argument is four-fold. Cooks has been a top-12 (much less top-20) receiver in four of six seasons. He's stepping into a high-octane passing attack that needs to replace more than 160 vacated targets from DeAndre Hopkins. His ADP is grossly depressed by his disappointing 2019, but he's 100% healthy and no more at risk of concussions than any other player. Cooks has averaged 1.91 fantasy points per target in his career, which his right in line with what DeAndre Hopkins averaged playing with DeShaun Watson. Yes, Cooks has played with great quarterbacks, but he's going to a team with another great signal-caller.

The Downside Case by Dan Hindery: Cooks claims he has zero concern over his recent string of concussions, but they are starting to add up, and we should consider that risk when drafting him. Cooks is also trying to get up to speed on a new team with very little offseason. There is going to be plenty of competition for targets, as well. Will Fuller V is going to be the top guy, and Randall Cobb will rack up targets in the slot.

Conclusion: Drafting Cooks is a Recipe for Success

Brandin Cooks elicits strong opinions. Even when he was churning out four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, or finishing as a top-12 fantasy receiver four times in six seasons, he had a lot of detractors. That's what happens when Bill Belichick, Sean Payton, and Sean McVay all would prefer draft compensation to retaining your services. But taking a step back, nearly 75% of our rankers see Cooks as a value at ADP. It would be one thing if you were paying a price that required Cooks to be the same top-12 receiver he's been when healthy, but instead, you're paying a price many, many rounds later. He's a high-ceiling player that costs a floor price -- an easy target.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 37.3
• Average Draft Position: 34^th

The Details: Fuller is, by far, the most divisive receiver within the industry's consensus Top 36. His standard deviation of 10.79 speaks to how far-ranging our expectations are for the Texans veteran. A jaw-dropping 43 spots separate the high (WR26) and low (WR69) rankings. On average, we rank Fuller at 37.3, with a median of 34 -- which happens to match his ADP. Eight rankers think Fuller can meet or exceed ADP, while seven don't. No one is willing to project him as a top-25 receiver, but six of our staff believe he'll fall short of the Top 36 (aka, the WR3 tier in 12-team leagues).

The Upside Case by Dan Hindery: Fuller is the clear WR1 for the Texans. Brandin Cooks has admitted he has an uphill battle trying to build a rapport with Watson and is less of a threat to Fuller’s WR1 status than ADP would indicate. Deshaun Watson is predicting a huge season and Pro Bowl bid for Fuller. He is due for a healthy season and reportedly showed up in fantastic shape for camp. Fuller is going off the board late enough that you can nab him as your WR4 and add a ton of upside to your wide receiver corps.

The Downside Case by Jason Wood: Can we stop trying to make Will Fuller V a thing? In four seasons, he's ranked WR63, WR48, WR64, and WR53. He's missed 22 games in four years and has been a fixture on the injury report otherwise. He's also a boom-or-bust player contingent on tracking down a few deep throws. When the connection hits, he can put up a big week. But far too often, the game script doesn't play to Fuller's strengths. The Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins away, but it's a mistake to think that vaults Fuller's role. His role is defined and capped by his injuries and limited route tree. Brandin Cooks will be the new No. 1, and the trio of Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills, and Keke Coutee are all as likely to be featured based on defensive matchups.

Conclusion: Are You Feeling Lucky? Don't Get Caught up in the Momentum, but Be Open to him as your WR3

Since I'm the one who made the downside case, you know where I stand. But, collectively, it's a cloudier puzzle to solve. Half the staff thinks he'll deliver WR3 value, and essentially justify his cost. The other half is dubious, and his doubters believe injuries will cause him to fall way short of expectations. Around the industry, he's become quite a buzzy option of late, and you're probably going to have to draft Fuller higher than WR34 if you want him. We're not advocating that, because we can't trust his health. But on a per-game basis, most think he can handily outperform his full-year ranking.

If you're interested in more articles by Jason Wood