Winning on FantasyDraft - Week 17

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 17 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

Expected Team Points

Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the eleven NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:

• New England Patriots (vs MIA) - 30.25 points
• New Orleans Saints (at CAR) - 29.00 points
• Dallas Cowboys (vs WAS) - 28.50 points
• Green Bay Packers (at DET) - 28.25 points
• Kansas City Chiefs (vs LAC) - 27.25 points
• Tennessee Titans (at HOU) - 25.00 points
• Los Angeles Rams (vs ARI) - 25.00 points
• San Francisco 49ers (at SEA) - 24.75 points
• Philadelphia Eagles (at NYG) - 24.25 points
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs ATL) - 24.00 points
• Atlanta Falcons (at TB) - 24.00 points

and one near-miss...

• Indianapolis Colts (at JAC) - 23.75 points

Situations that stand out to me this week

• Teams playing for pride only - This is the time of the year for bad teams to rest stars while evaluating younger players that could have a bigger role in 2020 and beyond. Conversely, the teams battling for those playoff spots tend to lean on their stars as if it was already a playoff game. I place extra emphasis on players that have high expected team totals in week 17. Many stars will not play full games this week.
  
  
• RB Travis Homer, SEA ($8,200) -Travis is thrust into a big role with the injuries to Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny. The Seahawks also signed Marshawn Lynch, but he has been out of football for a good while. At just $8,200, Travis Homer is one of the best bargains on this slate.
  
  
• The Philadelphia Eagles passing offense vs the New York Giants pass defense - Over the last four weeks, the Eagles have averaged 305 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns. During that same span, the Giants have yielded 287 yards and 1.8 touchdowns through the air. TE Zach Ertz has scratched in a must-win game for the Eagles. With a battered receiving corps, QB Carson Wentz should be looking for Dallas Goedert ($10,200) all day. He is the free square I will have in 100% of my rosters this week.
  
  
• The San Francisco rush offense vs the Seattle Seahawks rush defense - Over the last four weeks, the 49ers are averaging 144 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns on the ground. The Seahawks are yielding 160 yards and 1.8 touchdowns via the run over the same time period. Raheem Mostert ($10,500) has scored at least a touchdown in his last four contests.
  
  

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)

• QB Matt Ryan / WR Julio Jones (Cost = $28,300, FP = 47.7, Ratio = 1.69)
• QB Carson Wentz / TE Dallas Goedert (Cost = $21,600, FP = 34.8, Ratio = 1.61)
• RB Ezekiel Elliott / TD Dallas Cowboys (Cost = $21,700, FP = 34.2, Ratio = 1.58)
• RB Aaron Jones / TD Green Bay Packers (Cost = $20,500, FP = 32.1, Ratio = 1.57)
• QB Dak Prescott / WR Michael Gallup (Cost = ,$22,600, FP = 35.0, Ratio = 1.55)
• QB Tom Brady / WR Julian Edelman (Cost = $25000, FP = 38.7, Ratio = 1.55)
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Breshad Perriman (Cost = $25,900, FP = 39.8, Ratio = 1.54)
• QB Dak Prescott / WR Amari Cooper (Cost = $24,300, FP = 36.8, Ratio = 1.51)
• RB Patrick Laird / TD Miami Dolphins (Cost = $11,900, FP = 18.0, Ratio = 1.51)
• QB Baker Mayfield / WR Jarvis Landry (Cost = $22,800, FP = 34.1, Ratio = 1.50)
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Justin Watson (Cost = $22,900, FP = 34.2, Ratio = 1.49)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Russell Gage (Cost = $21,800, FP = 32.5, Ratio = 1.49)
• QB Matt Ryan / TE Austin Hooper (Cost = $23,200, FP = 34.3, Ratio = 1.48)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $27,200, FP = 40.1, Ratio = 1.47)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / WR Tyreek Hill (Cost = $28,200, FP = 41.1, Ratio = 1.46)
• QB Drew Brees / WR Michael Thomas (Cost = $31,800, FP = 45.8, Ratio = 1.44)
• QB Carson Wentz / WR Greg Ward (Cost = $21,500, FP = 30.7, Ratio = 1.43)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / WR Sammy Watkins (Cost = $23,400, FP = 32.8, Ratio = 1.40)
• QB Jimmy Garoppolo / TE George Kittle (Cost = $25,000, FP = 34.7, Ratio = 1.39)
• QB Andy Dalton / WR Tyler Boyd (Cost = $24,600, FP = 33.8, Ratio = 1.37)
• QB Drew Brees / TE Jared Cook (Cost = $23,800, FP = 32.5, Ratio = 1.37)
• QB Ryan Tannehill / WR A.J. Brown (Cost = $26,000, FP = 35.5, Ratio = 1.37)
• QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Davante Adams (Cost = $27,800, FP = 37.9, Ratio = 1.36)

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Gardner Minshew, Andy Dalton, Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Will Grier
• RBs: Travis Homer, Sony Michel, Ameer Abdullah, Austin Ekeler, Adrian Peterson
• WRs: Steven Sims, Kelvin Harmon, Christian Kirk, Jamison Crowder, Danny Ammendola
• TEs: Kaden Smith, Austin Hooper, Seth Devalve, Greg Olsen, Jordan Akins
• Def: Lions, Ravens, Bengals, Bears, Dolphins

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ ATL Stack - Projected Points = (159.2)

• QB Matt Ryan, ATL - $12,300
• RB Travis Homer, SEA - $8,200
• RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL - $15,300
• TE Dallas Goedert, PHI - $10,200
• WR Jarvis Landry, CLE - $11,000
• WR Julio Jones, ATL - $16,000
• Flex: RB Raheem Mostert, SF - $10,500
• Flex: WR Steven Sims, WAS - $9,200
• TD New England Patriots - $7,200