When to Draft Antonio Brown

Photo: USA Today Sports

This week, Antonio Brown returned to the Oakland Raiders. Before that, he garnered a large amount of press for a variety of reasons: his frostbitten feet, his desire to keep wearing his non-league-approved helmet, and simply staying away from the team during training camp.

As with Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon, we wondered how much concern there was in the community about Elliott and Gordon not being on the field when the season begins.

Revisiting. How confident are you Antonio Brown will be ready to go for Week 1? #Footballguys #AntonioBrown

— Joe Bryant (@Football_Guys) August 12, 2019

Then, we asked our staff these questions on Brown's situation.

August is drafting season, and you might be drafting right now. How do you approach Brown in your drafts? Are you worried about him missing games? What round is a good spot for him? Are there dates in August where your concern will increase? If you are drafting right now, what are you doing with Antonio Brown?

Ryan Hester

I have dropped Brown in my rankings since the feet and helmet issues. And considering the fact that he wasn't very high for me prior to that, I don't think I'll be drafting him on any of my teams. The main reason I had him ranked lower than the consensus was moving to a lesser team with a new quarterback.

Even if he moves past the recent distractions and is healthy enough (and content with his equipment) to play in Week 1, the original chemistry concerns still remain. The time missed with Derek Carr so far in camp will have a lasting impact on Brown and the Raiders. A slow start seems inevitable at this point. And that's not what I want from a second or third-round investment.

I have Brown as a low-end WR2 now, somewhere in the WR19-21 range, near the likes of Chris Godwin and Cooper Kupp. I'm sure he'll be selected by someone else in my leagues before that point. In fact, I'm hopeful he is. I'd rather have a younger player with upside who is already an established piece of his offense.

Mark Wimer

I agree with Ryan Hester's take 100%. Antonio Brown's bizarre behavior since relocating to Oakland (and it is bizarre - improper procedure for a treatment to his feet, resulting in a serious injury? Making a fuss about which helmet he wears? Threatening retirement?) has shifted my perception of Brown from "Extremely talented and driven to excel" to "Extremely talented and now a Terrell Owens-level diva relying on his talent to cash in".

Diva players wind up alienating their teammates and then complaining about the bed that they have made for themselves in the locker room. We've seen this story play out before with Owens (as one example), and it wasn't pretty at the end. And the Pittsburgh debacle is looking worse and worse for Brown as the months go by - diva-level behavior from Brown, indeed.

Is Brown near the end of his run as an elite level NFL wide receiver? Maybe, maybe not - but as Ryan pointed out all the conditions for an abrupt fall are in place this year.

I will not risk the premium-round (1-3 round) pick it will take to roster Brown due to all the red flags we're seeing in the intangibles department.

Jason Wood

I agree with the sentiment Ryan and Mark have laid out. I'm not going to roster Antonio Brown on many rosters unless it's a league where everyone discounts him far beyond his consensus average draft position. While I don't necessarily agree in dropping him toward the end of the WR2 tier, as Ryan suggests, it's a semantic debate since we both recommend avoiding him.

I was leery of Brown coming into the season because of the change of venues. I've seen a lot of people question Ben Roethlisberger without Brown, but we have more evidence in support of Roethlisberger being just fine than we do Brown succeeding without his Steelers signal-caller. I'm on record as a Derek Carr non-believer and think Jon Gruden and offensive coordinator Greg Olson are in the bottom-five of offensive game-planners.

So combine a subpar quarterback, an out-of-touch head coach, an offensive coordinator with multiple failed stints, with a diva receiver who just got paid and has been nothing short of bizarre over the last few months, and you've got an easy player to avoid.

Phil Alexander

Count me in on wanting nothing to do with Brown this year. Even before he embarked on the strangest off-season in NFL history, he wasn't a great buy at ADP. The Raiders offensive pie isn't big enough to support a top-10 season from any wide receiver. Brown gets a massive quarterback downgrade and doesn't look like he'll have much time to develop a rapport with Derek Carr in training camp (assuming he's not serious about quitting football over a helmet). Let someone else in your league make Brown their problem.

Will Grant

What Jason said here - I want zero part of Brown unless he's fallen off of everyone else's radar as well. There are just too many red flags to get excited about Brown as your top wide receiver.

I would very happily draft any of these guys before taking Brown this season (All have higher ADP than Brown right now):

• Keenan Allen
• T.Y. Hilton
• Adam Thielen
• Mike Evans.

Let someone else have the headache this season.

Andy Hicks

While I would like to examine the other side of this coin and look at Antonio Brown as value now this year, I just can’t do it. Like the others, he has slid down in my rankings, but I was wary of him, to begin with, this year. After five consecutive seasons as a top-three fantasy receiver, he is now in Oakland. Expecting this level of dominance on a new team, with a new quarterback and at age 31 is placing ridiculous expectations on the former Steeler if he is right to go. Add in temperament concerns, gelling with his new teammates and Oakland's tough traveling schedule and the makings are there for a massive drop in production. Hope for the best, but expect a significant downturn in production.

Jeff Haseley

I think we can all agree that he has a lower ranking this year, mainly due to these factors:

1. Derek Carr and Oakland's offense, in general, is substandard to what he had in Pittsburgh.
2. Diva tendencies that have already happened.
3. Diva tendencies that have yet to occur.

It all points to yellow and red flags across the board. Having said that, if he falls far enough, there is still value. It may take him some time to learn the plays, become familiar with Carr (and vice versa), but he's still the same Antonio Brown who can draw a flag by positioning himself on a contested target or running a precise route that leaves defenders on roller skates. I don't see him having a 1,400-yard season, and double-digit touchdowns feel like a pipe dream. However, an 80-1,200-8 season is possible, and that's not too far off from T.Y. Hilton or others in the same third-round window. I'm buying, but at the right price.

Jason Wood

I'm generally where Jeff is for the reasons he articulates. However, I keep wondering if we're not willing to let our analysis of the risks really flow through our expectations properly. As if...because he's been so good for so long, we're taking all the negatives and knocking 200 yards and a handful of touchdowns off his baseline when the reality is we should knock him down even more.

Ultimately, I'm not drafting him for that reason.

Jeff Haseley

Jason, and that's completely valid. I have no problems with that assessment. Would you take him in Round 5? Round 6? What about for $16 in an auction? It would be difficult for me not to pull that trigger.

Jason Wood

Jeff, I'm asking myself that same question, but quite honestly now that he's back with the team, I don't see it as an eventuality I need to prepare for...he'll be a 2nd or 3rd rounder, at worst.

Devin Knotts

If I can get Antonio Brown in the third round, I am going to do that nearly every time. Brown has his issues but remains an elite talent. The question you have to ask yourself is how are the Raiders going to move the ball if they aren't going to move the ball through Brown. Brown should still be in line for 1100+ yards.

If you're in a live draft, I would bring a printed out copy of Brown's frostbitten foot and hand it to every single one of my league mates to try to drive the price down even further.

Jason Wood

Devin, to be clear, I'm not disagreeing as I have him WR12 in my updated projections. BUT, I do think your (and my, and Jeff's) contention is possibly guilty of anchoring.

When I look back at my, and others, projections each year, one of the things that always screams out is that we don't build enough variance into what happens in Year N+1 from Year N. Now, there are a million reasons why that happens and most of them are logical. Just because we know outcomes are going to be more volatile than we model doesn't mean we should model them with more variability, unless we have a good reason to confidently figure out the direction of said volatility.

But my point being, we should be at all surprised if Brown sucks this year. And by sucks, I mean a guy who barely scratches the Top 20. There are plenty of risk factors that, individually, we would normally ding someone for.

I think a lot of this comes down to your view on Derek Carr. If you think he's a good quarterback who just hasn't had the horses, then Antonio Brown in the third round makes a ton of sense. If you think he's got major limitations, that almost assuredly preclude him from optimizing Antonio Brown's skill set the way Roethlisberger did, then we've got worries.

Clayton Gray

If Carr hasn't had the horses, then why did Amari Cooper excel after being traded to Dallas?

Jason Wood

Yup.

Jeff Haseley

A case history of significance to this situation is what Terrell Owens did at the end of career on Buffalo, and then Cincinnati. Owens is also a legendary receiver and also had diva tendencies. And like Brown, he departed a winning team for a lesser team A) for the money, B) to keep playing the game he loves.

• Buffalo - 2009 season (Ryan Fitzpatrick/Trent Edwards at QB), 16 games, 55 receptions, 829 yards, 5 touchdowns
• Cincinnati - 2010 season (Carson Palmer at QB), 14 games, 72 receptions, 983 yards, 9 touchdowns

Where does Brown fall with Oakland? What level can Derek Carr take him to? All good and important questions that we need to answer ourselves to know where the value lies.

Jason Wood

The thing I worry about is how we don't respect Roethlisberger enough. Dude is FEARLESS. Very few quarterbacks have the willingness to sling it up high for jump balls or in super tight spaces like Big Ben. And fewer still can do it with the consistently positive outcomes Ben generates.

Carr is a system guy. He's not a freelancer, and when he has tried to -- or is forced to -- freelance, it's been UGLY. I'm not sure Antonio Brown is an All Pro if his quarterback is a follow-the-rules guy. Particularly at 31 years old. Particularly after a big payday. Particularly with a suspect offensive line, a god awful failed offensive coordinator, and a head coach who tries to motivate players by telling about a bowl game that stopped happening before they were born.

Devin Knotts

The big difference there was Owens was 36/37 in Buffalo/Cincinnati.

Brown just turned 31. He's a year older than Julio Jones and younger than A.J. Green. There's still a lot of good football left from Brown.

Jeff Haseley

Fair enough, Devin. Getting back to what Jason shared about Roethlisberger and his place in Antonio Brown's ascension to greatness. What are Brown's splits in and out of Roethlisberger under center? From what I recall, he struggled when Landry Jones or Michael Vick was his quarterback.

Ryan Hester

The following data is from 2006-2018 for Roethlisberger and 2013-2018 for Brown. Admittedly, these are somewhat arbitrary endpoints, but I chose them for a reason.

2006 was the first season in which Roethlisberger was given the reigns, so to speak. It was the first time he averaged over 30 attempts per game. In 2007, that average dipped below 30 again, but since 2008, he's been comfortably above. For Brown, 2013 was the first time he was the true WR1 (he co-existed with Mike Wallace for two years prior).

Results for Brown with and without Roethlisberger:

Results for Roethlisberger with and without Brown:

The Brown-sans-Ben sample is small, but it's striking. Nearly 40 yards per game fewer, and he has never caught a touchdown from a quarterback other than Roethlisberger.

The "Rank" column represents the average weekly fantasy ranking of each player. What it doesn't show is that Brown has 46 career top-12 weekly finishes. Zero of those have come with a quarterback other than Roethlisberger. His best was a WR14 finish in 2015 at Kansas City.

Brown has 29 weeks where he has finished between WR13 and WR24. Two of those came sans Roethlisberger.

Both players had incredible fantasy production as a tandem, but one managed to survive a little better without the other, even when factoring in games before the "modern age" of passing.