For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
WHAT TO DO WITH THE PANTHERS? As of the writing of this article, Steve Buzzard's ownership projections show the entire Panthers offense as the most highly-owned set of players on the Week #11 slate. Kyle Allen is projected as the second most-owned quarterback, Christian McCaffrey is the third most-owned running back, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel are the first and seventh most-owned wide receivers, and Greg Olsen is the most popular tight end amongst the masses. This is the direct result of DraftKings pricing that team too low for their expected output, but how do you approach their players from a game strategy perspective? In short, I plan to fade the majority of the team to varying degrees. Of the players mentioned, Kyle Allen is my favorite option and I will be slightly underweight on the field (ditto for D.J. Moore), but I think that Greg Olsen is 'bad chalk' at the tight end position and Curtis Samuel's ownership is probably too inflated, as well. Regarding Christian McCaffrey, the plan is to go about half (or less) of the field, in terms of ownership, because his $10.5K salary and 30+% ownership create issues around lineup construction that make it difficult to win tournaments. Ordinarily, I would urge you to leverage lower-owned players on the same team, but there are none to consider (!!), so the strategy here is to hope that the Panthers either underperform or that they spread scoring out amongst several players: If they score 9 points against Atlanta (as New Orleans did a week ago), you will be ahead of 25-35% of the field...likewise, if Jarius Wright scores a touchdown and several drives stall inside the redzone, where possible touchdowns are converted to field goals, you will be in good shape having faded this team. It is not a guaranteed strategy, but it is the one that I will employ on Sunday afternoon.
2019 FORMAT:
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
| Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
| Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
| Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
| Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
| Jameis Winston | NO | $6,500 | 5% | - | «««« | Major bump with Lattimore injury. Plus gamescript. |
| Tom Brady | @PHL | $6,400 | 3% | - | «««« | Has the receiving weapons to dice Eagles' pass funnel D. |
| Ryan Finley | @OAK | $5,000 | 4% | - | ««« | Pass gamescript + porous OAK secondary = 3 stars. |
| Matt Ryan | @CAR | $6,200 | 9% | Yes | ««« | Panthers secondary is banged up. Potential shootout. |
| Carson Wentz | NE | $5,400 | 2% | - | ««« | Price and ownership are driving this ranking. TE stacks. |
| Jeff Driskel | DAL | $4,600 | 3% | Yes | ««« | Salary merits attention. Speed helps with rush yardage. |
| Drew Brees | @TB | $6,900 | 9% | - | ««« | Expect him to bounce back vs. 27th DVOA pass defense. |
| Derek Carr | CIN | $6,100 | 9% | - | «« | Only deterrent is rush-heavy attack, but has 4x upside. |
| Kyler Murray | @SF | $6,100 | 1% | - | «« | SF D is banged up. Picking a stack partner is tough. |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | ARZ | $6,700 | 2% | - | «« | Price keeps ownership down, but matchup is superb. |
| Kyle Allen | ATL | $5,300 | 12% | Yes | « | Finally getting rightful ownership. CMC lurks, however. |
| Josh Allen | @MIA | $6,600 | 7% | - | « | Love the matchup; hate the price. John Brown stacks. |
| Dak Prescott | @DET | $6,700 | 8% | - | « | Had him higher until assessing DAL WR exposure. |
| Lamar Jackson | HOU | $7,700 | 12% | - | « | Priced too high. Minimal stack options for GPPs. Fade. |
CASH: The recommendation is to save salary for your cash game lineups at the quarterback position this week. Sure, you can roll with Lamar Jackson at $7.7K and feel good about collecting 20+ points, but the opportunity cost associated with that salary is too much given the relative lack of value at other positions. Instead, Matt Ryan should return to form this week against the Panthers. Last week, Ryan's numbers suffered because his defense woke up from a year-long slumber and actually held the Saints to less than 10 points; as a result, Ryan rarely needed to throw the ball to put points on the board and he finished with his first sub-300 yard game of the season (in non-injury games). He will face off against the Panthers' 3rd-ranked DVOA pass defense led by James Bradberry and Ross Cockrell, both of whom rank in the top 20 of coverage cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus; however, Cockrell (quad) will miss this game entirely and Bradberry continues to nurse a groin injury heading into Sunday. With a Vegas game total of nearly 50 points, it would appear that Matt Ryan is fairly priced with a barrage of receiving weapons at only $6.2K. In that same game, Kyle Allen is an intriguing salary-saving option at only $5.3K. In three of his previous four games, Allen has delivered 3x value on that salary and looks primed to do it again versus the Falcons' 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense that has looked absent all season except for last week's surprise wake-up call in New Orleans. I am writing that performance off as an outlier and gladly slotting Kyle Allen into cash game lineups where salary is limiting. Lastly, it may not be an easy click, but Jeff Driskel is another cash game option at home against the Cowboys. In his first start last week, Driskel was serviceable against the Bears, finishing the afternoon with a shade more than 20 DK points. Driskel has underrated 4.5-second 40-yard dash speed, which translated into nearly 40 yards rushing last week. We should not be intimidated by the matchup, either, as the 5-4 Cowboys have beaten only one team with a winning record this season.
GPP: With 300+ passing yards in 6 of his previous 7 games, Jame
