The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
THIS WEEK'S CASH LINE: 140.58
TEAM #1: DID cash
140.58
TEAM #2: did NOT cash
140.28
The Overlap
(Last week's analysis used to project Watson as the sharp play of the week)
In Week 14, the go-to quarterback option amongst sharp NFL DFS players will likely be Deshaun Watson in cash games. Watson and the Houston Texans play host to the Denver Broncos in a game that the Texans are projected to win by about 10 points. Although a presumably dominant victory like this typically leads to a run-heavy offensive attack, the Houston Texans lack a reliable running game, and Deshaun Watson typically thrives in these situations. Although Vic Fangio's Broncos opened the season as an impressive defensive unit, injuries have decimated their pass-rush. Bradley Chubb went down earlier this season with an injury that will keep him sidelined until 2020, and Von Miller missed last week's game with a knee injury. Miller, as one of the most-impactful pass-rushers in the NFL, is a critical component to Denver's defense, and his absence would be devastating to the unit. Over the last three weeks, when they've been bit the hardest by the proverbial injury bug, the Denver Broncos have allowed three multi-touchdown performances from opposing quarterbacks. As one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, Watson should have no trouble adding a fourth tally to that list in Week 14, especially if Von Miller is watching from the sidelines. Lastly, since the Texans are at home this weekend, the game will be played indoors at NRG Stadium. Playing indoors in December is a significant advantage for offenses in fantasy football, as they are shielded from any adverse weather conditions associated with the cold weather. Expect Watson to be the most popular quarterback option in cash games for the sharpest NFL DFS players in Week 14.
Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara's price has continually dropped in recent weeks, and entering Week 14 at just $7,000, he stood out as a strong top-end running back option against a San Francisco 49ers defense that has struggled in run defense this season. Kamara ultimately made his way into 77.5-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings in Week 14.
Since returning from injury, Alvin Kamara has tallied no more than 13 carries in any game, despite playing over 80-percent of the Saints' offensive snaps last weekend against the Atlanta Falcons. Kamara's limited workload will foster continued questions regarding whether or not he has returned to full health or not, but he was trending upwards after playing 82-percent of the game on short rest in the Saints' win on Thanksgiving. The New Orleans Saints entered Week 14 as one-point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers, whose defense is surprisingly susceptible against the run. The 49ers' defense opened the season as one of the best units in the league, but their defense was notable soft until recently. On the ground, San Francisco has allowed over 4.6 yards per carry this season, which ranks 26th in the NFL. Throughout 2019, aside from one matchup against an especially strong Tampa Bay Buccaneers' run defense, Alvin Kamara has cost more than $8,000 in every game leading up to this one. At $7,000, Kamara's sharp price decrease caught the eyes of the sharps in Week 14. Although he ended up as one of the most disappointing players on the slate, scoring just 7.3 DraftKings points in a shootout that totaled 94 points between the two teams, the process behind rostering Alvin Kamara was sound and sharp in Week 14.
Bilal Powell
With Le'Veon Bell sidelined due to illness in Week 14, Bilal Powell immediately jumped off of the page as an elite cash-game option at the running back position against the Miami Dolphins. 90-percent of sharps in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings rostered Powell as a salary-saving running back position last weekend.
The stars aligned for Bilal Powell in Week 14, as he cost only $3,500 in an elite matchup against the Miami Dolphins' porous run defense. On the season, the Miami Dolphins have defended the third-most rushing attempts in the NFL, as they are typically played from behind. In combination with this volume, the Dolphins lack defensive talent, allowing 4.6 yards per carry on the season, the 9th-highest total in the league. The New York Jets entered last weekend's game as five-point favorites in the game, which typically fosters a run-heavy offensive attack, increasing the projected volume for Bilal Powell. Powell, starting in place of Le'Veon Bell, cost close to the site-minimum price at just $3,500 last weekend. It was tough to justify fading Powell in cash games in Week 14, as he had an elite matchup at a bottom-dollar price, allowing sharps to pay-up elsewhere in their lineups.
Kenny Stills
Kenny Stills became a chalky Week 14 wide receiver option after a hamstring injury ruled Will Fuller out of action for the Houston Texans. Stills, at just $3,700, immediately found himself in the crosshairs of sharp NFL DFS players building their cash lineups last week, as 75-percent of players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 locked Stills in as a bargain-bin pass-catcher.
Kenny Stills, who has previously played a significant role in the Houston Texans' offense, as they have dealt with injuries in the past, was primed for another high-volume day in Week 14. With Will Fuller out of action, Stills played over 95-percent of Houston's offensive snaps. The last time Stills played over 95-percent of snaps was in Week 11, when he played 98-percent of Houston's offensive snaps in another game that Fuller missed out on. Stills finished that game with seven targets, a total that would be perfectly sufficient for his sub-$4,000 price tag in Week 14. Additionally, considering that Houston's quarterback, Deshaun Watson was the most popular option at the position amongst sharps, the upside of stacking Stills with his quarterback was tantalizing for sharps. Stills finished the day with only 2.8 points on DraftKings and 2 targets to his name, as other ancillary receiving pieces behind De'Andre Hopkins unexpectedly emerged against the Denver Broncos' porous secondary.
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas, even as one of the expensive wide receiver on the DraftKings main slate of games, made his way into over 57-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings, even in an expectedly tough matchup. Thomas lived up to his self-given nickname "Can't Guard Mike" in Week 14, as he gave the San Francisco 49ers' secondary fits all day at home en-route to a massive 33.4-point performance on DraftKings.
Throughout the 2019 campaign, Michael Thomas playing at home has practically been a cheat code in the NFL. Across 6 home games leading up to Week 14, Thomas posted a minimum of 9 targets, 9 receptions, and 95 receiving yards in every single game. Playing in a dome always fosters a higher-scoring environment for fantasy purposes, but Thomas has taken that to a new level in 2019, scoring at least 18.5 DraftKings points in every home game this season. Michael Thomas is as matchup-proof as they come in the NFL this year, and his role also grows in the team's offense when they are in close games. This past weekend's game against the 49ers had just a one-point spread, and it lived up to the hype as one of the season's most tightly-contested games thus far. In a high-stakes game like such, Michael Thomas unsurprisingly saw an uptick in volume, registering 15 targets on the day, and he made good on his $8,300 price tag with a strong 33.4-DraftKings point performance against the San Francisco 49ers. Overall, Thomas' production is almost solely dependent upon volume, not opposition, and in close games, especially at home, he projects especially well.
Next Week's Sharp Play
Unfortunately, last week on Sunday Night Football, Rashaad Penny, Seattle's number-two running back, went down with an apparent knee injury that is expected to keep him out for the remainder of the season. Penny had just begun to assume a significant role in Seattle's offense for the first time after commanding a first-round selection in last year's NFL Draft, but without him, Chris Carson is once again poised to assume a bell-cow role in Seattle's backfield. Carson, even with Penny in the mix, posted his 7th 20-carry game of the season just 2 weeks ago, and now, without Penny, Carson is a near-lock for almost 20-carries this weekend against Carolina. The Seattle Seahawks enter this weekend's game against the Panthers as six-point favorites, which should foster an especially run-heavy offensive attack from what is already one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. Additionally, the Panthers' run defense grades as one of the worst in the NFL, allowing over 5.0 yards per carry and 24 rushing touchdowns on the season. Overall, Carson, at $7,500, provides one of the strongest floors of production this weekend and he will likely make his way into the bulk of sharp NFL cash lineups here in Week 15.
Previously Projected Sharp Plays
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 3: Nelson Agholor- 19.0 FanDuel points (4.0x value)/24.0 DraftKings points (6.7x value)
- 91.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 4: Evan Engram- 7.4 FanDuel points (1.1x value)/9.4 DraftKings points (1.6x value)
- 51.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 5: Auden Tate- 10.1 FanDuel points (1.9x value)/11.6 DraftKings points (3.3x value)
- 94.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Matt Ryan- 30.94 FanDuel points (3.8x value)/33.94 DraftKings points (5.3x value)
- 35.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Leonard Fournette- 14.8 FanDuel points (2.0x value)/17.8 DraftKings points (2.7x value)
- 65.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 7: Cooper Kupp- 8.0 FanDuel points (1.0x value)/11.0 DraftKings points (1.5x value)
- 49.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 8: Courtland Sutton- 8.7 FanDuel points (1.45x value)/10.2 DraftKings points (1.92x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 9: Nick Chubb- 11.1 FanDuel points (1.4x value)/13.1 DraftKings points (1.8x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 10: Michael Thomas- 21.7 FanDuel points (2.5x value)/31.2 DraftKings points (3.8x value)
- 88 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 11: Brian Hill- 4.3 FanDuel points (0.7x value)/4.8 DraftKings points (1.0x value)
- 74 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 12: Alvin Kamara- 14.7 FanDuel points (1.8x value)/19.2 DraftKings points (2.3x value)
- 90 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 13: Davante Adams- 21.4 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.4 DraftKings points (3.5x value)
- 45 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 14: Deshaun Watson 30.08 FanDuel points (3.9x value)/30.08 DraftKings points (4.6x value)
- 37.5 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50