What We're Watching: NFC South
The NFL season is underway as all 32 teams will be opening training camp this week. The brief lull of the early summer is over, and it's time now to put the fantasy preparation into overdrive. As always, Footballguys is here to be your guide to another great season. Here's what we're watching for in the NFC South:
ATLANTA FALCONS
Things aren’t all rosy in Flowery Branch, as the Falcons need to hunker down and reverse a disturbing two-year trend. The Falcons lost an epic Super Bowl in head coach Dan Quinn’s second season. The team took a step back offensively in 2017, but improved defensively and managed to win another division crown, and a playoff game. In 2018, the team fell to 7-9 and failed to make the playoffs. Much of the blame falls on the defense, which went from 8th in 2017 to 25th last year. Quinn made the surprising move not to replace Marquand Manuel, and will instead coordinate the defense himself. It’s a daring move given the complexities of being a head coach. Offensively, although the team ranked 10th in points, Quinn also replaced offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian with veteran coach Dirk Koetter with the hope Koetter can reinvigorate a ground game that ranked 27th a year ago.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/18 (Rookies) / 7/21 (Veterans)
- Where: Atlanta Falcons Training Facility (Flowery Branch, GA)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 1 -- Denver (HOF Game) 8:00 pm EDT
- Aug 8 -- @Miami 7:30 pm
- Aug 15 -- New York Jets 7:30 pm
- Aug 22 -- Washington 7:30 pm
- Aug 29 -- @Jacksonville 7:00 pm
What We're Watching:
- Dirk Koetter returns to the nest – Koetter spent four years in Tampa Bay (three as head coach) but was the Falcons offensive coordinator from 2012-2014 under head coach Mike Smith. Koetter has been explicitly tasked with fixing the run game, which is odd considering his history as a play-caller. In his prior stint with the Falcons, the ground game ranked 28th on average versus the passing attack which ranked an impressive 6th. That’s good news for Matt Ryan and the receiving corps, but it’s unclear whether we should expect a boost for Devonta Freeman and company.
- Improving the offensive line – The Falcons line was a case of the haves (on the left side), and the have nots (on the right). It’s no surprise the team used two first-round picks on linemen. Guard Chris Lindstrom and tackle Kaleb McGary will be given opportunities to start immediately, and if they do the Falcons could see the kind of line improvement the Colts enjoyed last year.
- DeVonta Freeman's health – A groin injury limited Freeman to two games last year, and the Falcons ground game suffered for it. The team is counting on Freeman to get his groove back because No. 2 Tevin Coleman signed with San Francisco. Freeman was an elite fantasy back in 2015-2016 and should have the opportunity for 250+ touches this year, provided he can stay on the field.
- Is Calvin Ridley ready for another step forward? – Ridley’s rookie season was a smashing success, as he caught 64 receptions for 821 yards and ten touchdowns. It’s unreasonable to think Ridley peaked as a rookie, but it’s also essential to remember Mohamed Sanu also had 66 receptions for 838 yards. Are the Falcons willing to demote Sanu to get Ridley more targets?
- Can Quinn coach up the defense? – The Falcons didn’t do much in free agency to change the defensive personnel but are relying on the return of a handful of veterans to be the difference, along with Quinn’s hands-on approach. Adrian Clayborn returns after a season in New England, and starting safeties Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal return from season-ending injuries. Is that enough?
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Is Ron Rivera a good head coach? His 71-56-1 record supports the assertion, but the year-to-year volatility says otherwise. In eight seasons in Carolina, Rivera’s teams have had five losing seasons, including last year’s 7-9 finish. Rivera’s reputation is inextricably linked to Cam Newton, who has been his starting quarterback all eight seasons. For all of Newton’s praise, the Panthers offense has only finished in the top-10 twice; and has failed to do so for three straight seasons. The defense has been equally volatile, ranging from 2nd (2013) to 27th (2011) in Rivera’s tenure. When the Panthers assemble at Wofford College, the focus will be keeping the key cogs healthy, and building depth.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/24 (Rookies/Veterans)
- Where: Wofford College (Spartanburg, SC)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- @Chicago 8:00 pm EDT
- Aug 16 -- Buffalo 7:00 pm
- Aug 22 -- @New England 7:30 pm
- Aug 29 -- Pittsburgh 7:00 pm
What We're Watching:
- Is Cam Newton healthy? – Newton’s play fell off midway through the year, and he missed the final two games. It was later revealed he had a shoulder injury and had surgery in January to clean out some damaged cartilage. Luckily, there was no damage to his rotator cuff, and he’s expected to be ready for the preseason. Cam has been a top-5 fantasy quarterback four times, most recently in 2017. He’s fallen outside the Top 12 three times, including last year. Which Newton are the Panthers getting this year?
- Is Curtis Samuel as good as D.J. Moore? – Moore is a popular breakout candidate, while Samuel is viewed as a bench option in 12-team fantasy leagues. Is that a fair assessment? Once Samuel was inserted into the starting lineup, he and Moore were essentially the same fantasy player. Samuel had 36 receptions for 441 yards and four touchdowns (104 PPR points) and Moore had 42 receptions for 597 yards and one touchdown (108 PPR points).
- Does Greg Olsen have anything left in the tank? – Greg Olsen is one of Cam Newton’s safety net, but his decision to return for a 13th season surprised many after he missed seven games last year. Olsen was an iron man for years but has missed 16 games over the previous two seasons. Can he be counted on? If not, does Ian Thomas present a comparable alternative?
- Will Christian McCaffrey’s load be lightened? – McCaffrey touched the ball 326 times last year; accounting for an astounding 41% of the team’s volume. He held up, but that kind of workload can take years off a player’s career. Will there be any indications in camp that his duties will be better managed?
- How quickly can Greg Little earn a role? – Protecting Newton is paramount, which is why the Panthers used a second-round pick on tackle Greg Little. The sooner he wins a starting job, the better. Will he lock up a Week One spot with a strong camp, or will the Panthers go with Taylor Moton and keep their fingers crossed?
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The clock is ticking on the Saints quest to win a second Super Bowl in the Sean Payton/Drew Bree era. Brees turned 40 years old in January, and father time stops for no one. However, there’s little reason to think the Saints aren’t set to contend again in 2019 coming off a 13-3 season, another division title, and a heartbreaking loss to the Rams in the NFC Championship game. The Saints finished 3rd in points scored, marking the eighth consecutive season of top-10 output. Defensively, the Saints ranked 14th but were buoyed by a fierce pass rush (49 sacks) combined with a porous secondary (7.1 yard adjusted net yards per attempt).
Camp Details:
- When: 7/18 (Rookies) / 7/25 (Veterans)
- Where: New Orleans Saints Training Facility (Metairie, LA)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 9 -- Minnesota 8:00 pm EDT
- Aug 18 -- @Los Angeles Chargers 4:00 pm
- Aug 24 -- @New York Jets 7:30 pm
- Aug 29 -- Miami 8:00 pm
What We're Watching:
- Is Drew Brees slowing down? – The Saints became Super Bowl contenders again two seasons ago when the team re-committed to a balanced game plan. While Brees’ attempts have plummeted from 600+ to a career-low (as a Saint) 489 attempts last year, every other metric argues the veteran is as good as ever. He led the league with a jaw-dropping 74% completion rate, had a 6.5% touchdown rate (versus a career 5.3% rate), and threw only five interceptions – a career-low.
- Can the new offense support a second fantasy receiver? – Michael Thomas is a target machine, but it’s unclear whether the balanced play-calling limits the breakout potential for the other receivers. Can second-year TreQuan Smith dust off a lousy finish to last year and overtake veteran Ted Ginn Jr?
- Is Jared Cook a vital cog? – Jared Cook always looks like a world-beater in practice, but his on-field career has rarely lived up to the hype. Fresh off his first top-5 fantasy finish last year as a Raider, Cook joins the Saints – his fifth NFL home. Will Cook put up big numbers as Jimmy Graham used to, or will he resort back to the inconsistent complementary player he was for most of his career?
- How does Latavius Murray look? – Mark Ingram finished RB15 or better from 2014 through 2017, and was on pace for another top-15 season last year had he not missed four games. Given the Saints commitment to the run game, Latavius Murray steps into a potentially fantasy-friendly system. But is Murray as good as Ingram? Will the Saints give Murray the same role, or will Alvin Kamara take on a heavier workload, pushing Murray into a purely complementary role?
- Replacing Max Unger – The center position is arguably the most important on the offensive line, and Max Unger’s retirement is no small matter. Erik McCoy was drafted in the second round and is the long-term answer, but veterans Cameron Tom and Nick Easton have also been promised an opportunity to win the job in camp.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
When Bruce Arians and his staff arrive at AdventHealth Training Center for camp, it’ll mark the fifth coaching regime since Jon Gruden left for the broadcast booth. Since Gruden’s tenure ended, Tampa Bay has finished last in the NFC South eight of ten seasons. Arians – an offensive-minded coach – inherits a franchise that hasn’t had a top-10 offense since 2000 when Tony Dungy was at the helm. The defense is even worse off, having finished in the bottom half of the league eight of the last ten years. Arians is counting on veteran defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to turn around the defense quickly, while he and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich look to make a good, but inconsistent offense, into a consistently great one.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/21 (Rookies) / 7/25 (Veterans)
- Where: AdventHealth Training Center (Tampa, FL)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 9 -- @Pittsburgh 7:30 pm EDT
- Aug 16 -- Miami 7:30 pm
- Aug 23 -- Cleveland 7:30 pm
- Aug 29 -- @Dallas 8:00 pm
What We're Watching:
- Figuring out if Jameis Winston is the guy – Winston’s four seasons have been maddening. He’s flashed at times, and improved in some ways (a career-high completion rate and touchdown percentage last year) but hasn’t progressed in a way deserving of being the first overall pick. He was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick – never forget. Arians and the Buccaneers front office have a massive decision to make on whether to give Winston a $100-million extension and right now it’s probably even money on which way they go.
- Peyton Barber versus Ronald Jones – Peyton Barber doesn’t excite fantasy drafters but did lead the team with 254 touches, 963 yards and six touchdowns last year. Arians and his assistants have praised Barber, but that doesn’t mean he’s got the starting job locked up. Ronald Jones – a much-hyped draft pick – completely flopped as a rookie (30 touches in nine games) but gets a new lease on life with the regime change. Jones’ upside is much higher than Barber, but that doesn’t mean much if he can’t translate the raw skills into consistent play-making in training camp.
- Does Chris Godwin join the elite? – Bruce Arians’ offenses can support two top-20 fantasy receivers, which is music to Godwin’s ears. Mike Evans’ place atop the depth chart is deservedly secure, but Godwin finally has the chance to shine now that Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson aren’t competing for targets.
- Should we worry about O.J. Howard? – O.J. Howard was a top-10 tight end in spite of missing six games, which has fantasy drafters understandably excited. However, Bruce Arians’ offenses have rarely been friendly to tight ends. Is that a byproduct of talent – did Arians never have a tight end of Howard’s caliber – or are we all over-drafting the third-year playmaker?
- Todd Bowles’ defensive makeover – The Buccaneers defense has been synonymous with the 4-3, Cover-2 for decades, but that’s all changing under Bowles’ watch. He’ll implement a hybrid defensive front that a one-gap scheme and mixes and matches between 3-4 and 4-3 looks. He’ll have a litany of new players at his disposal including veteran linebackers Deone Bucannon and Shaq Barrett, safety Kentrell Brice, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, and rookies Devin White, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean, and Mike Edwards.
