What We're Watching: AFC South
The NFL season is underway as all 32 teams will be opening training camp this week. The brief lull of the early summer is over, and it's time now to put the fantasy preparation into overdrive. As always, Footballguys is here to be your guide to another great season. Here's what we're watching for in the AFC South:
HOUSTON TEXANS
The Texans head to training camp riding high after winning the AFC South last year. Head coach Bill O’Brien enters his sixth season with real momentum, as the team is coming off its best season under his tenure. Not only did the team win the division – his third division title in five seasons – but the offense (11th in points) and defense (4th in points) had their best rankings of his era. Can the team stay healthy, for once, and take the next step by winning a playoff game or two?
Camp Details:
- When: 7/21 (Rookies) / 7/24 (Veterans)
- Where: Houston Methodist Training Center (Houston, TX)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- @Green Bay 8:00pm EDT
- Aug 17 -- Detroit 8:00pm
- Aug 24 -- @Dallas 7:00pm
- Aug 29 -- Los Angeles Rams 8:00pm
What We're Watching:
- Will D’Onta Foreman push Lamar Miller? – Lamar Miller is an unexciting fantasy player, but the Texans have remained committed to him because he’s reliable. Houston was a top-10 rushing offense last year, and Miller notched 235 touches for 1,136 yards and six touchdowns. Last year’s backup, Alfred Blue, is gone and the only credible threat for Miller’s role is D’Onta Foreman. Forman enters his third season finally healthy after an Achilles injury derailed the start of his career. He’s got the size and vision to overtake Miller, so a strong start to camp should raise eyebrows.
- Is DeAndre Hopkins healthy? – Hopkins is a consensus first-round fantasy pick coming off a 115-catch, 1,572-yard, 11 touchdown season. Yet, he is set to start camp on the PUP list and admitted a month ago that he had shoulder ligaments “tear off the bone” during last year’s Wild Card playoff loss. As long as Hopkins returns to practice in a week or two, there’s little cause for concern, but if his rehab persists, alarm bells will start ringing for the entire Texans offense. No other receiver is as important to his team’s success.
- Will Fuller versus Keke Coutee – Both Fuller and Coutee have their fans among the fantasy analyst community, for good reason. Coutee showed he could be a high-volume possession dynamo last year in limited snaps, but missed ten games. Fuller has an uncanny connection downfield with Deshaun Watson, but missed nine games last year. Both are healthy to start camp and will vie for No. 2 honors. Will they commoditize each other, or can one step to the forefront and become a weekly fantasy asset?
- The never-ending search for an impact tight end – Jordan Thomas and Jordan Akins combined for 37 receptions, 440 yards, and four touchdowns. Can either become a fixture at the position and give the team a reliable first-down option across the middle? If not, will rookie Kahale Warring get a shot?
- Fixing the offensive line – Deshaun Watson was fantastic last season, but he won’t stay healthy if he gets hit as frequently as he did a season ago – including 62 sacks. The Texans front office used their first two draft picks on offensive linemen. Tackle Tytus Howard and guard Max Scharping can win jobs with a strong preseason. If they don’t, that bodes ill for improving the front five.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Frank Reich may not have been the Colts’ first choice to replace Chuck Pagano, but he proved to be the best choice. Reich’s first year in Indianapolis was an unabashed success, as the team went from 4-12 to 10-6. The offense – which benefitted from Andrew Luck’s return and a complete overhaul of the offensive line – finished 5th in points and 7th in yards, after ranking 30th in 2017. On defense, first-year coordinator Matt Eberflus coordinated a masterful turnaround. The defense ranked 10th and 11th in points and yards allowed, respectively; a vast improvement from the 30th-place ranking in 2017. With success comes expectations, and the Colts head to training camp as one of the AFC’s Super Bowl favorites.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/21 (Rookies) / 7/24 (Veterans)
- Where: Grand Park (Westfield, IN)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- @Buffalo 7:00pm EDT
- Aug 17 -- Cleveland 4:00pm
- Aug 24 -- Chicago 7:00pm
- Aug 29 -- @Cincinnati 7:00pm
What We're Watching:
- The running back depth chart – Marlon Mack looked like a franchise back in his second season, but only played 12 games. Will the Colts give him the featured role with a strong preseason? Alternatively, will he split touches with Nyheim Hines and veteran Spencer Ware?
- Devin Funchess versus Parris Campbell – Veteran Devin Funchess signed a one-year “prove it” deal betting on himself and the benefits of catching passes from Andrew Luck. The Colts drafted Parris Campbell in the second round of the draft. They’re both favored to join T.Y. Hilton in the Colts base 3-WR sets (11 personnel), but it’s unrealistic to think both can have weekly fantasy relevance. Will one of the two emerge in the preseason?
- Can Jack Doyle force himself back into a committee? – Eric Ebron has a breakout year (750 yards and 13 touchdowns) thanks in part to Jack Doyle missing ten games. If Doyle’s healthy, can he turn the Colts offense back into a two-player committee? Or was Ebron’s performance last year enough to relegate Doyle to a traditional backup role?
- Will the Colts offensive line miss its architects? – The Colts allowed a league-low 18 sacks last year, as coaches DeGuglielmo and Bobby Johnson integrated rookies Braden Smith and Quenton Nelson into a unit that went from bad to bad-ass. Unfortunately, DeGuglielmo and Johnson are both gone and have been replaced by Chris Strausser, whose resume is far from proven.
- Who starts at middle linebacker? – The Colts have only one sure-fire positional battle entering camp, and that’s between Anthony Walker and rookie Bobby Okereke for the middle linebacker job. The lack of camp position battles is a testament to how far the team has come under general manager Chris Ballard.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jaguars are one of the hardest teams to handicap entering the preseason. In Doug Marrone’s first season, the team won 10 games (versus 3 the prior season), the division crown, and made it to the AFC Championship game. Both the offense (5th) and defense (2nd) were elite. All that raised the bar heading into 2018 and the Jaguars were a trendy Super Bowl pick. Things went utterly astray offensively, as the team regressed to 31st in points scored and 27th in yards. The defense remained elite (4th in points allowed, 5th in yards allowed), which is why coordinator Todd Wash is moving up the short-list of potential head-coaching candidates. The team made its biggest move by signing quarterback Nick Foles – the Super Bowl MVP two years ago – to a big contract. Can Foles, and new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo right the ship?
Camp Details:
- When: 7/22 (Rookies) / 7/24 (Veterans)
- Where: TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, FL)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- @Baltimore 7:30pm EDT
- Aug 15 -- Philadelphia 7:00pm
- Aug 22 -- @Miami 8:00pm
- Aug 29 -- Atlanta 7:00pm
What We're Watching:
- Will Nick Foles turn back into a pumpkin? – Nick Foles’ career has been a roller coast. He was forced into the starting lineup for the Eagles in 2012, as a rookie, and went 1-5. He flourished in 2013, going 8-2 and throwing 27 touchdowns against two interceptions. He went 6-2 in 2014 but statistically fell back to the league average. The following year he started in St. Louis and was dreadful, going 4-7 in 11 starts. He ended up as a backup in Kansas City in 2016, before returning to Philadelphia as Carson Wentz’ backup. Over the last two years, Foles has been lights out; going 6-2 in the regular season but far more importantly leading the Eagles to playoffs wins in both seasons, including the Super Bowl championship against the Patriots. Which Foles will show up in Jacksonville? Can he thrive outside of the comfortable confines of Doug Pederson’s system?
- Was John DeFilippo the right hire? – Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. What does that say about the Jaguars front office who are about to be fooled thrice? DeFilippo has the unenviable honor of having his play-calling duties pulled mid-season by two different franchises. He’s been a failure as a play-caller at every spot, yet the Jaguars chose him to fix a bad offense. He’ll need to prove he’s learned from his past mistakes, or it’s going to be a long season.
- Can Leonard Fournette re-establish his dominance? – Fournette’s rookie season wasn’t perfect – he missed three games including a one-game suspension – but it was dynamic (1,342 yards and ten touchdowns). Last year the rails came off as Fournette missed eight games, and when he was on the field, he played like one of the league’s worst tailbacks. The Jaguars rescinded his bonuses for off-field issues, meaning Fournette has no safety net contractually. He needs to be a good soldier and hyper-productive in camp to remain in the conversation as an every-down feature back.
- Sorting out the receiving corps – Dede Westbrook led the team with 66 receptions for 717 yards and five touchdowns, will he sustain the No. 1 role with Foles under center? If not, can Keelan Cole, D.J. Chark, Marqise Lee, or Chris Conley stake their claim? It seems like the Jaguars have a lot of No 3 receivers being forced into No. 1 and No. 2 roles.
- Sorting out the tight end corps – James O’Shaughnessy was the Jaguars leading tight end a year ago, with 24 receptions and 214 yards. Nick Foles relied on his tight ends in Philadelphia, and it stands to reason there’s an opportunity for someone to emerge at the position. If not O’Shaughnessy will it be rookie Josh Oliver or journeyman Geoff Swaim?
TENNESSEE TITANS
The good news is Mike Vrabel’s first season ended with four wins in five games, to cap a 9-7 season. The bad news is the Titans Week 17 loss to the Colts eliminated them from the playoffs. The good news is Vrabel – a defensive coach by background – and coordinator Dean Pees led the Titans to a 3rd-place finish defensively. The bad news is Vrabel – a defensive coach by background – left the offense in the hands of Matt LaFleur, and it struggled to a 27th-place ranking. Figuring out which direction the Titans are headed next is difficult, and the ultimate answer may come down to whether Marcus Mariota can stay on the field for 16 games.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/22 (Rookies) / 7/25 (Veterans)
- Where: Saint Thomas Sports Park (Nashville, TN)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- @Philadelphia 7:30pm EDT
- Aug 17 -- New England 7:00pm
- Aug 25 -- Pittsburgh 8:00pm
- Aug 29 -- @Chicago 8:00pm
What We're Watching:
- Was Art Smith a consolation prize? – Matt LaFleur lasted one year as offensive coordinator before the Packers hired him away as their new head coach. The Titans promoted tight ends coach Art Smith. Normally a promotion from within the organization is meant to maintain scheme continuity, but was that a wise move for a team that ranked 29th in passing, and 27th overall? What does Smith plan on doing differently than his predecessor?
- Is Marcus Mariota the answer? – Mariota has been the Titans starter for four years, and it’s been a struggle. In 2016, things looked okay as he threw for 3,400+ yards and 26 touchdowns, but things have gone from bad to worse since. Last year, in thirteen starts, Mariota averaged just 180 yards passing and less than a touchdown per game. That will not cut it in today’s pass-happy NFL.
- Is the offensive line improved, or worse? – The Titans signed Roger Saffold away from the Rams to bolster the interior, but then word came just before the start of camp that anchor tackle Taylor Lewan may be facing a four-game suspension. Moreover, right tackle Jack Conklin is coming back from his second knee injury in four seasons. Are Saffold and rookie Nate Davis enough to improve an offensive line that gave up the 4th-worst sack rate (9.7%)?
- Is Derrick Henry ready to “ride?” – Art Smith said he intends to ride Derrick Henry as the power back enters the final year of his rookie contract. Henry was a relatively unloved fantasy commodity entering last season, because he doesn’t contribute much as a receiver, and was splitting time with Dion Lewis. However, down the stretch, Henry was the best back in football – running for 625 yards and eight touchdowns in the final five games. The Titans are built to run the ball, and Henry stands a chance to lead the league in carries if his body can take the pounding.
- Parsing a jumbled receiving corps – Corey Davis led the Titans in targets (112), catches (65), yards (891), and touchdowns (4) but was inconsistent. His role seems assured, but there’s a logjam otherwise as incumbents Taywan Taylor and Tajae Sharpe will be pushed by free agent Adam Humphries and rookie A.J. Brown. Will any of them see enough target share to matter in fantasy lineups?
