Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Last week proved to be a tricky one all around, with some bad beats along the way costing us some wagers. A 7-9 finish is the nature of the beast, but we must be aiming higher, especially with just two weeks of the season to go. Typically, the final weeks are difficult to forecast, as teams try out younger players and skew what we thought we knew. Try to maintain an appreciation of the changes as the week progresses and act accordingly.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Saturday) HOUSTON (-1.5) at TAMPA BAY (Over/Under 53)
Houston’s pivotal victory in Nashville has set them up beautifully for a postseason berth, but there is still business to attend to before they can don their caps and pull on their t-shirts. There is an unmistakable grit to this roster, deficient in talent though they may be at key spots. Whether it is a grind-it-out rushing attack led by Carlos Hyde, a key pass from Deshaun Watson or a defensive stop by a player you’ve likely never heard of, the Texans get it done. That they have been made road favorites is a huge vote of confidence by Vegas, but it should be noted that the Bucs were originally one-point favorites. Line moves like this can sometimes be a buyer beware situation, with the Houston hype train back on the tracks.
Despite only being able to grip a tennis ball in practice last week for a time, Jameis Winston looked none the worse for wear in Detroit, casually throwing for 458 yards (bettering his Week 14 yardage by two), four touchdowns and just one pick. That is an 8:4 touchdown to interception ratio over the past two games, a real positive for Winston and the Bucs. Losing Chris Godwin is a blow, and to see him felled by the same injury (hamstring) that took out Mike Evans is particularly cruel. At 7-7, the Bucs have really turned the ship around (ahem) and are in prime position to cause an upset against a weak Texans back end.
Pick: Tampa Bay
(Saturday) BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) (Over/Under 38.5)
The Bills are in the playoffs, ladies and gentlemen. Let that sink in. Winning a tight clash in Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football is a significant step forward for Sean McDermott’s team, a bold proclamation to the rest of the league that this is a team to be feared and respected. In some ways clinching the playoff berth has taken the edge off this game; a loss wouldn’t change Buffalo’s standing. A win in Foxborough, though, would be monumental. It is a big ask to beat the Steelers and Patriots in consecutive weeks, but Buffalo has the talent to pull it off.
The Patriots doused the flames of criticism on Sunday with a facile victory over the moribund Bengals, but that game was close for a long time. If it wasn’t for some key turnovers to gift Tom Brady and the offense short fields, perhaps things would have turned out differently. Josh Allen is prone to a turnover or two, so the Patriots defense will be locked in and primed to pounce if he falters. Buffalo can keep this one at arm’s length, but New England still has a bye in their sights – and they won’t let that go easily. Off a short week and a rousing victory, this is a let-down spot for the Bills.
Pick: New England
(Saturday) LA RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) (Over/Under 46)
Last week I spotlighted the Falcons-49ers game as a potential trap game for the home team. Laying 11 points at home seemed overly generous against a team led by a veteran quarterback in Matt Ryan, especially since San Francisco had just come off a massive victory on the road against the Saints. Vegas has adjusted things, and against arguably a comparable team they have chopped off a few points and made the 49ers just 6.5-point favorites against the Rams. For what it’s worth, the opening line on this game was a pick.
This primetime clash has gigantic ramifications for the NFC playoff picture. After the last-second loss to Atlanta on Sunday, the 49ers have dropped out of the top two seeds and all the way down to the fifth seed. Over the next two weeks – against the Rams and in Seattle – Kyle Shanahan’s team’s mettle will be severely tested. For the Rams, meanwhile, only a victory will do. Minnesota is two wins ahead of them as the sixth seed, so it would take a Christmas miracle to pull it off. Still, the Rams are a dangerous team and, if they can shake off the demolition in Dallas, have the talent to keep this close. The 6.5-point line gives me pause, but the spot favors an irate and determined 49ers side.
Pick: San Francisco
CINCINNATI at MIAMI (-1.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
The most noteworthy storyline coming in this match-up of also-rans is where each team will end up in the final 2020 NFL Draft order. The Bengals are almost on the clock, with the closest team two wins ahead of them. The Dolphins are in that group of three teams at 3-11, so a victory for them would start the clock ticking on, presumably, Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow. The Bengals have shown some life in the last few weeks since Andy Dalton returned to the line-up, with their defensive line showing up as well to cause problems. On paper, the talent gap between these teams is stark.
And yet Miami feels like the better-coached team, regardless of the talent discrepancy. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to be infuriating and stunning with his plays in equal measure, but his never-say-die style gives them a real chance in every game. Defensively, Miami is not nearly as predictable. If Eli Manning and the Giants can waltz up and down the field against this second-tier group of defensive backs, the Bengals have a great chance to do the same. Suddenly the race for the first pick could get very interesting.
Pick: Cincinnati
PITTSBURGH (-3) at NY JETS (Over/Under 38.5)
The Steelers are clinging on to that final wildcard spot as they hold the tiebreaker over the Titans, but their offensive deficiencies were clear for all to see on Sunday Night Football. Devlin Hodges falls apart when things go off-script, especially against better defenses. The Jets don’t exactly fit the description of an intimidating group defensively, but they have kept opponents to 88.8 rushing yards per game and will force Hodges to make plays with his arm.
Sam Darnold impressed last Thursday night in Baltimore, unleashing some phenomenal throws to keep the Jets somewhat competitive. There is no question that he can win the quarterback duel, but how much time will he be afforded against a ferocious Pittsburgh front seven? Vegas has the total (38.5) absolutely correct in what should be a low-scoring, cold-weather affair. The temptation is to take the points and hope for a Hodges meltdown, but the Steelers need this one so much more.
Pick: Pittsburgh
CAROLINA at INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
The Panthers have seen enough of Kyle Allen. That is according to Ian Rapaport, who reported that the team intends to start rookie Will Grier with the season well and truly over. Interim head coach Perry Fewell was coy about it when asked on Monday at his press conference, but this appears to be the direction the team is moving with two games to go: one of evaluation and future planning. Christian McCaffrey might be able to have his way against a Colts defense that looked inept in New Orleans on Monday night.
Certainly, the short week for the Colts favors the road team, but the rookie quarterback factor could swing things dramatically. Indianapolis is out of contention for the playoffs now, but they will be keen to sign off with a home win. Marlon Mack will be the key to this game; the Panthers are giving up yards on the ground like it’s, well, Christmas. In a game being played only three days before the main event, expect a ball control Colts offense to grind it out.
Pick: Indianapolis
NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON (-2) (Over/Under 42)
Much like the Dolphins-Bengals game, this clash of NFC East rivals will have a huge bearing on the draft order. The Giants, currently in possession of the second overall pick and holding the inside track on drafting Chase Young, could fall a couple of spots with a win here. To make matters worse, Washington would likely swap places with them and take the second pick, leading to a decade of Chase Young terrorizing Daniel Jones. It is amazing how the calculus of the draft order can change everything for teams. As for the game itself, the Giants have a little momentum on their side after the shellacking of the Dolphins last week. It was likely the final home game for Eli Manning, if his post-game reaction was anything to go by, with Jones poised to retake the reins this week.
Dwayne Haskins’ confidence has improved in recent weeks, with the rookie finally showing Washington why they invested such a high pick in his services. The Redskins can also take heart from the diamond they discovered in Terry McLaurin, who has been an absolute revelation on an underperforming offense. The last-second loss to the Eagles was heart-breaking, certainly, but the team will take solace in the fact that they were able to keep it close for such a long period of time against what is the class of their division (if you can call it that). Vegas believes this game is a toss-up and it is hard to disagree. In cases like these, take the points and move along.
Pick: New York
BALTIMORE (-10) at CLEVELAND (Over/Under 49.5)
The Ravens are on an inexorable march for the number one seed in the AFC playoffs, and yet two divisional clashes – this week at Cleveland and next week against Pittsburgh – could change their course drastically. It is easy to forget that the Browns destroyed the Ravens 40-25 earlier this season behind a punishing ground game and some turnovers. They also had an effective game plan to keep Lamar Jackson in check. These teams are on completely different tracks now, but the presumptive MVP will have to keep his wits about him to get the job done.
The 10-point line in Baltimore’s favor is a mark of the respect that the oddsmakers have for them, but are the Browns really 13 points (three points for home advantage) worse than the Ravens? Weather is the great equalizer at this time of year, so the high-powered Baltimore offense might slow down a bit in the cold. Trusting Baker Mayfield and the offense to step up and keep the Ravens honest is the tricky leap of faith to make. Expect a tight enough game that the Ravens squeak out.
Pick: Cleveland
JACKSONVILLE at ATLANTA (-7) (Over/Under 45.5)
Down 16-3 and looking dead and buried last week in the final game in the Oakland Coliseum, the Jaguars somehow clawed their way back to a victory. As much credit as they deserve for showing resilience in the face of a deficit, the number of things that fell their way for that sequence is not sustainable. Defensively, this is still a team that has given up 29.7 points per game over the last three, and 25.2 this season. That the Falcons are not favored by more than a touchdown is, honestly, a huge surprise.
It would be foolish to see an outlier – last week’s win in Oakland – and suddenly proclaim that Jacksonville’s issues are no more. Atlanta has not given up and, with veteran quarterback Matt Ryan looking as strong as ever despite an injury-plagued receiving corps, should have their way. The win against the 49ers on the road was ultimately not meaningful in the standings, but it might yet be a feather in the cap of Dan Quinn when the season comes to an end and Falcons brass is discussing replacing him. It should be noted that, dating back to last season, the Falcons are just 6-9 against the spread as the home team. Still, this feels like an excellent opportunity to right that.
Pick: Atlanta
NEW ORLEANS (-1) at TENNESSEE (Over/Under 51)
Drew Brees: the man, the myth, the legend. After an incredible performance on Monday Night Football that saw the Saints quarterback set a single-game record for completion percentage, what more can the great man do? The oddsmakers have the Saints as one-point favorites on the road, meaning they would be laying about four points on a neutral field. Vegas knows what it has in this team: a deep roster with a great coach and an elite quarterback, bolstered by a defense that has enough to stifle most offenses.
The Titans will present a fascinating challenge, however, and will be fighting for their playoff lives. It is a case of ‘take two’ for Tennessee, whose efforts to rally late last week were not rewarded with a victory. Now, against a tougher opponent, they will need to summon up a near-perfect effort. The narrative surrounding Brees on the road – and especially on grass – tends to bear out statistically, but he may just do enough to break Nashville hearts. Expect a tight affair that comes down to the end. In that scenario, I trust the better quarterback.
Pick: New Orleans
OAKLAND at LA CHARGERS (-5.5) (Over/Under 47)
This dead rubber match between two AFC West rivals could end up being yet another final home game for the Raiders, strangely. After all, the Chargers have zero home-field advantage and, dating back to 2018, are just 3-9-1 against the spread as the home team in Carson. For Oakland’s players, this is an opportunity for redemption, to right the wrongs of last week’s bitterly disappointing coda in the Coliseum. The last time the Raiders faced off against Philip Rivers, it was not a good day for the veteran quarterback, who is now second in the league in interceptions with 18.
There is a feeling of the end of an era approaching for the Chargers, too. Rivers’ play has deteriorated behind a subpar offensive line, which may force the Los Angeles brain trust into some tough decisions this offseason. The Vegas line puts this game at 5.5, what some dub ‘the Vegas zone’ – the lines the oddsmakers choose when they are unsure how to handicap a game – and who could blame them? When the Chargers’ home record is considered, though, combined with the general malaise surrounding the franchise, it is difficult to put faith in them.
Pick: Oakland
DETROIT at DENVER (-6.5) (Over/Under 38)
Week 16 often throws up these unpredictable quarterback matchups, the ones that, had you said it to a casual fan prior to the season, would have been met by a raised eyebrow. Yes, it is the clash of David Blough and Drew Lock, where the most interesting subplot might be whether Matt Patricia can coach a good enough performance out of his team to avoid the firing line. The Lions, to their credit, fought hard against the Bucs last week, but they are simply not equipped talent-wise to compete. A lost season may turn even sourer in Denver.
The opportunity before the Broncos is to put that Chiefs loss behind them and pick up their positive momentum from the Houston game, helping them to propel forward into 2020 with fewer questions at quarterback (perhaps none at all) and some young pieces to build around. Vegas has made this a 6.5-point line, and that seems about right. Trusting in Blough to deliver in a hostile environment like this would be foolhardy, so laying the points is the only way to go.
Pick: Denver
ARIZONA at SEATTLE (-9.5) (Over/Under 50.5)
Arizona finally put their losing run to an end last week, tossing aside the Browns like yesterday’s newspaper. As the first season of Kyler Murray’s career comes to a close, it is clear the Cardinals have something to build around, but they will need to add strong foundational players to be able to compete with their NFC West rivals, all of whom are a notch above right now. With Seattle’s defense looking shaky, Arizona would be well served to attack early and often and not go into their shell. Keep in mind the Cardinals went toe to toe with the 49ers on the road and almost beat them. Hanging with the current number one seed in the NFC won’t be easy, but the possibility is there.
The Seahawks have a few injury concerns coming out of last week’s game against Carolina, not least star linebacker Bobby Wagner, who suffered a sprained ankle. Wagner insisted he was fine after the game, so that is encouraging, but cornerback/safety Quandre Diggs may miss time. It seems that no matter what is thrown at this team, they can overcome it – and that starts with Russell Wilson. Since last season the Seahawks are 7-6-1 against the spread as the home team (53.8%), with Vegas tending to make them heavy favorites. Arizona should be able to keep up on the scoreboard, so the 9.5 points feels a little much.
Pick: Arizona
DALLAS (-3) at PHILADELPHIA (Over/Under 47.5)
It’s finally time to settle this. The NFC East will belong to Dallas if they can knock off the Eagles at home (having already beaten Philadelphia, Dallas holds the head to head tiebreaker), but that seems a tricky proposition for a team that has been the antithesis of consistent over the past few games. In fact, the Cowboys’ modus operandi this season has been to either destroy opponents or barely lose to them, often in painful fashion. After the convincing victory over the Rams, it would be a very Cowboys thing to trip up in Philadelphia.
The Eagles faithful will be banking on that, as anything but a victory would certainly spell the end for their playoff hopes. While it wasn’t always pretty against Washington, they rallied and got the job done, with Carson Wentz coming to life in the crucial moments. The concern for Philadelphia might be their defense, which was feeble at times against Dwayne Haskins; a similar display would be punished severely by Dak Prescott. The weather report is worth monitoring here; we all know what happened to Dallas’ offense in New England, and indeed Philadelphia’s against the same opponent. In divisional clashes the edge generally goes to the home team, especially when the quality of the teams is so close; getting three points is hard to turn down.
Pick: Philadelphia
(Sunday Night) KANSAS CITY (-5) at CHICAGO (Over/Under 45)
The Sunday night fare features a clash of Andy Reid and a former disciple of the great man in Matt Nagy, who served on the Chiefs’ offensive coaching staff from 2013 to 2017. There are a lot of similarities in terms of the design and schemes both offenses use, but the conductors of each orchestra could not be more different. The Bears have a severe headache to address as far as Mitchell Trubisky’s future; to keep him and believe in better, or to cut your losses early and move on. At 7-7, the final two games of the season for Trubisky, rightly or wrongly, will shape the offseason narrative.
Patrick Mahomes II has been shaping his own legendary narrative since last season and there is a sense that he has finally gotten his confidence back in the knee after the dislocation injury earlier this season. A master of the off-platform throw, the Bears’ front seven will give him some problems to deal with, so he will have to be at his best. The lack of a sustained ground attack for Kansas City is a concern, so expect them to try to establish that. The Chiefs are locked in as the third seed, and that is likely to be their final position barring a slip-up by New England. This is a tricky one to call, and Vegas has it in the aforementioned ‘Vegas zone’, but the Chiefs are by far the better team – and they should show it.
Pick: Kansas City
(Monday Night) GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA (-4) (Over/Under 46.5)
The Vikings are an impressive 14-8-1 (63.6%) against the spread as the home team dating back to 2017. Home cooking has been kind to this team under Mike Zimmer, and the transition from Case Keenum to Kirk Cousins has helped that cause. Many have been critical of Cousins’ performances in prime time, but he has put those doubts to bed with standout games in Dallas and in Seattle. Minnesota’s defense has been its backbone for years and it will need to produce a dominating performance to keep Aaron Rodgers in check.
This is a massive game for the Packers as well. Currently sitting pretty as the number two seed, a loss would suddenly propel the Vikings back into the picture for a division title – and a possible bye. The Packers have hardly set the world alight in recent games, with many questioning whether they should even be in the conversation for a bye. The record doesn’t lie, but a statement victory here would be significant, not just for the team’s momentum but for the playoffs as well.
Pick: Minnesota
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Last week was unacceptable with an 0-4 run at the best bets, but there is no better way to bounce back than with a clean sweep. With a lot of efficient lines this week – and few open to teasers – we are going to focus on the best spreads:
- 1 DENVER (-6.5) vs. DETROIT
- 2 NEW ORLEANS (-1) at TENNESSEE
- 3 PITTSBURGH (-3) at NY JETS
- 4 OAKLAND (+5.5) at LA CHARGERS
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 16 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- OAKLAND (+5.5)
- PITTSBURGH (-3)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 3-TEAM MONEY LINE BET (6-1 ODDS):
- DENVER (-300)
- NEW ORLEANS (-144)
- OAKLAND (+220)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM SPREAD BET (4-1 ODDS)
- DENVER (-6.5)
- NEW ORLEANS (-1)
- PITTSBURGH (-3)
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Minnesota, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Denver, Oakland
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 7-9
- SEASON OVERALL: 116-108 (51.7%)
- BEST BETS: 27-30 (47.3%), last week 0-4
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 37-33 (55.3%), last week 1-4
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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