Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
A 9-5 record last week, following on from a 10-3 record the week prior, is a nice return and a good omen for the remainder of the season. Hopefully, you’ve been coming along for the ride – and the profits. The season is meandering toward its conclusion, but there are still plenty of changing situations and intriguing spots to exploit. Let’s stay aggressive heading into Week 12.
The bye teams this week are the Chiefs, Chargers, Vikings, and Cardinals.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday) INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON (-3.5) (Over/Under 47)
The week starts off with a bang as two of the AFC’s contenders face off on Thursday Night Football. The 6-4 Colts, looking revitalized after Sunday’s home win that saw them nullify the Jaguars, face off against the equally 6-4 Texans, who suffered an embarrassing defeat to the Ravens (no shame in that, but the manner of the loss will have stung). Only a few weeks ago the Colts defeated the Texans 30-23, so this is an especially important clash for the home team. Bill O’Brien will be aware that a loss here would almost certainly relegate his team to a wildcard battle for the rest of the season.
On the face of it, this feels like an excellent bounce-back spot for the Texans. Not many pundits expected such a shellacking in Baltimore, granted, but most teams will lose there. Houston still controls its own destiny in a soft AFC playoff picture, but they can’t afford too many slip-ups. While Jacoby Brissett has helped to steady the ship for Indianapolis, he simply doesn’t have the talent to go throw for throw with Deshaun Watson. The home team needs it more – and they should get it in prime time.
Pick: Houston
DENVER at BUFFALO (-5) (Over/Under 36.5)
One of the more uninspiring games on this week’s slate, but one that the Bills will not be overlooking. The Broncos took the much-ballyhooed Vikings to the brink last week, nearly snatching the game at the death. Vic Fangio has his charges fighting like demons to salvage some pride and finish the season strong. This qualifies as a banana skin for Buffalo without a doubt, but in some ways, they will be quietly pleased that Denver expended so much energy and fell short last week. It will give Bills coach Sean McDermott plenty of ammunition to keep his team focused, but Fangio may struggle to get an emotional lift out of his team after such a downer.
Denver’s defense is a unit to be feared, however, and Josh Allen is not yet the quarterback that Kirk Cousins is. If Cousins was blunted for a half, Allen could be, too. The Bills currently occupy the fifth seed, but they have a litany of winnable games down the stretch. Could they take their eye off the ball? If there is any sloppiness in Buffalo’s play, Denver will be there to pounce, so five points feels a little off.
Pick: Denver
NY GIANTS at CHICAGO (-7) (Over/Under 41)
The Giants are just 3-7 against the spread this season, with an average margin of defeat of 8.6 points. The struggles of one Daniel Jones, the rookie passer on whom the franchise has pinned their hopes, are a big reason why the team has been able to stay close. However, Jones is not the sole culprit for the collapse of Big Blue; the defense is deficient in many areas and gives the young quarterback a mountain to climb every week, while the running game hasn’t managed to pick up the slack either. The good news for the Giants is that a visit to a Bears team in flux isn’t the challenge it used to be.
The tragedy for the Bears is how talented their roster is, only to be dragged down by the inadequacies of Mitchell Trubisky. Much like Jones, of course, it would be reductive to attribute all of Chicago’s woes to their shaky passer, but his struggles seem to dog the entire roster, deflating the players with every pass that caroms along the slick surface of the field. The weather report predicts a chilly 36F in Soldier Field and perhaps a chillier reception for Trubisky – if he even gets the start. Even if Chase Daniel is in, the Bears offense has given us scant reason to trust them. Off the bye, the Giants are in a good spot here to keep it close.
Pick: New York
MIAMI at CLEVELAND (-10.5) (Over/Under 41.5)
After a tumultuous week on and off the field, the Browns must maintain their focus if they are to salvage an improbable playoff berth. At 4-6, they have zero margin for error. The visit of the Miami Dolphins will test the character of this roster: can they rally around each and take care of business against a team they are, according to Vegas, 10.5 points better than? Myles Garrett’s absence leaves a gaping hole in the defensive front – who will fill the production void? Can Baker Mayfield finally click with Odell Beckham Jr after the pair were denied by half a yard last Thursday? More questions than answers abound for this team.
The Dolphins crashed back to earth, predictably, after the dizzying highs of a two-game winning streak. It was to be expected for a talent-deficient squad, but Ryan Fitzpatrick kept swinging against the Bills even with the game out of reach. That is exactly what makes the Dolphins a smart bet on this stage; with nothing to lose, they can play loose and easy. The Browns, meanwhile, cannot afford to lose. Rarely is there so much at stake in a game pitting a two-win team against a four-win team, but such is the state of the AFC playoff picture. Still, 10.5 points seems a little too deferential to a Browns team that has largely disappointed this campaign.
Pick: Miami
PITTSBURGH (-6.5) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 39.5)
With the low total of 39.5 in this game – one of many low totals this week, in fact – and with the Steelers favored by 6.5 points, Vegas is telling us to expect a low-scoring win by Pittsburgh, likely dominated by defense. That is the formula that can get the Steelers a ticket to the playoffs – and it is the only way. Mason Rudolph has proved time and again that he is simply not equipped to consistently lead this offense and make good decisions. It puts the defense at a handicap and, as they did against the Browns, sometimes playing that many snaps can break even your strongest unit. All is not yet lost for Pittsburgh – they currently occupy the eighth seed – but time is running short.
For the Bengals, time will soon start ticking for a different reason: the number one draft pick in April, which at this point seems destined to be under their control. Zac Taylor is undergoing a baptism by fire in his debut coaching season, but the spot he is in and the hand he has been dealt are far from ideal. With the Bengals’ history of retaining coaches, he is not headed for the exit. Bengals fans are, though – and in their droves. In front of a predominantly Steelers crowd, expect a ball-control offense and stifling defense to turn this into a comfortable 24-3 win for the road team.
Pick: Pittsburgh
TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (-4) (Over/Under 53)
If the Bucs and Falcons were elevators passing, Tampa Bay’s would feature a wailing Jameis Winston, clutching a football tight to his bosom, while Atlanta’s would boast a smiling Dan Quinn in the form of a Cheshire cat. Their fortunes may be going opposite ways, but who could have seen this resurgence coming for the Falcons, who were written off after a 1-7 start? The fact that Quinn has delegated the play-calling duties on defense may have freed him up to focus on the overall picture. Or it could simply be that Atlanta’s players, beleaguered but not broken, rallied after the bye week to keep their coach in place.
The headaches continue for Bruce Arians, meanwhile, who has endured 18 interceptions this season from his quarterback, dooming the team time and again. While this game will ultimately count for very little in the playoff picture in the NFC at large, the fate of Quinn will be decided over the next few weeks – and that man has no intention of relinquishing his post. The Tampa Bay defense may be able to offer some resistance, but not much. Atlanta’s defense is playing like the ’85 Bears, so no mercy should be the order of the day. Hammer the Falcons here before this line increases.
Pick: Atlanta
CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS (-9.5) (Over/Under 47)
Another week, another divisional clash for two teams on very different trajectories, much like their NFC South brethren. Kyle Allen, in a fit of quarterback hysteria, went full end-of-career, wheels-coming-off Jake Delhomme last week, tossing four ugly interceptions to put the Panthers in a hole that even Christian McCaffrey couldn’t dig them out of. The task is no easier this week against a Saints defense that took Jameis Winston’s soul away last week. Allen’s play has been good in spurts and he profiles as a solid high-end backup, but he has much convincing to do to secure the starting job in 2020 and beyond. One would assume the Superdome won’t be kind to his prospects.
The Saints will view the Panthers as a potentially tricky opponent but describing them as a speed bump on the way to a cushy divisional title wouldn’t be out of place. The one thing in Carolina’s favor is that they are 25-17 (59.5%) against the spread as the away underdog with Ron Rivera as coach. Having endured the embarrassing loss to the Falcons at home only a couple of weeks ago, however, the Saints are unlikely to fall into that trap. The line here is where it should be – take the home team.
Pick: New Orleans
SEATTLE at PHILADELPHIA (-2) (Over/Under 49.5)
The Seahawks come off their bye on a high. The last-gasp victory in San Francisco sets them up for a potential first-round bye in the playoffs – if they can take care of business. It starts with a tricky test in Philadelphia against a desperate team. At 5-5, the Eagles are not out of the running, but the NFC is fickle, and one would assume only 10 wins – and perhaps even 11 – will do to secure a place at the table. Fortunately for Philadelphia, playing in the NFC East affords them a little more margin for error.
At 8-2, Seattle is locked in as the fifth seed, but Pete Carroll’s team will know the home playoff game is particularly important for a team that has historically been excellent at the Clink. The wind played havoc last week on both the Eagles and Patriots offenses, but the early forecast doesn’t seem too disruptive. It is difficult to trust the Seahawks on the road in typical seasons, but this year they are 5-0 and look poised to continue that streak. Expect a tight game and jump on this line if it moves out to three points.
Pick: Seattle
OAKLAND (-3.5) at NY JETS (Over/Under 47)
Raider Nation is surging, although last week’s victory against Cincinnati at home didn’t quite pass muster as far as style points. Jon Gruden won’t lose any sleep over it, though; his team is in a perfect position to plan for a playoff push at 6-4. There are some winnable games ahead on the schedule for the Raiders, notably the Titans, Jaguars, and Broncos, so 10 wins is a realistic target. This game in the Meadowlands looks like a potential trap game that a young team such as this could overlook, so keep that caveat emptor in mind.
The Jets have won two on the bounce and head coach Adam Gase has been assured that his position is secure heading into 2020. Both are pieces of good news the franchise can build on, but there are still many flaws to be exploited for Oakland. Derek Carr has been hyper-efficient this season and could slice and dice this Jets secondary if his pass protection holds up. Gase’s squad is due for a rousing home performance, but with the Raiders taking the air out of the ball with the ground game it may be difficult. The half-point is crucial here, but the Raiders get the slight nod.
Pick: Oakland
DETROIT (-3) at WASHINGTON (Over/Under 42)
The viral clip that circulated of Dwayne Haskins this week, imploring his offensive linemen to guide him on how he can make their lives easier, was a typical example of an NFL Rorschach test. It was whatever you wanted it to be. Either Haskins was a leader trying to rally his troops, or he was an entitled brat whining at dumbstruck teammates; there was no in-between for some. What it showed me was that Haskins, though wet behind the ears as a pro, has passion. It is a glimmer of hope in an otherwise unremarkable season for Washington. The return of Derrius Guice is also intriguing. One might even be tempted to – nah, I can’t do it.
See, it can be easy to talk yourself into backing a team sometimes. The fact remains that even a Jeff Driskel-led Lions team should handily take care of business here. That the Lions are only three-point favorites is a bit of a slap in the face, honestly. Matt Patricia cannot afford to drop a game like this if he wants to hold on to his job, but there is every chance it could happen. Will Haskins’ speech get the attention of his team, or is there more Driskel magic in store? The latter seems the smarter play.
Pick: Detroit
JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (-3) (Over/Under 41.5)
The first of the late afternoon games pits two AFC South rivals against each other in what is, whether intentionally or not, the South divisions’ week of clashes. It is do-or-die time for Jacksonville, ladies, and gentlemen. Minshew or Foles, it doesn’t really matter at this point; they just need wins and they need them yesterday. Unfortunately, Jacksonville’s biggest weakness, their run defense, is about to be tested by a hungry and rested Derrick Henry. I think I heard Doug Marrone gulping just now.
Tennessee’s path to the playoffs is still within their control, but it starts with knocking off an opponent like Jacksonville at home. The last meeting between these teams featured a lost Marcus Mariota enduring a torrid time against the Jacksonville pass rush while the early signs of Minshew Mania blossomed. Who would have thought it would be Nick Foles and Ryan Tannehill steering their respective ships this time around? The Titans are notoriously hard to trust in big spots – and this qualifies – but Henry should take care of any concerns. 200 rushing yards is not outlandish.
Pick: Tennessee
DALLAS at NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) (Over/Under 46)
Dak Prescott is on fire, but a buzz-saw awaits him in Foxborough this week. In some ways this game is an unstoppable force against immovable object affair; the Cowboys offense has been consistently excellent this season, even as Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t been at his best, while the New England defense has shut down opponents for sport. Granted, the torrid pace the Pats set at the beginning of the campaign couldn’t be sustained, but this is a team that thrives on playing complementary football – and Tom Brady doesn’t mind playing second fiddle if it means victories.
The coaching battle stands out as a gigantic mismatch, unfortunately for Dallas. Jason Garrett has demonstrated his talents in the past, certainly, but he often makes critical in-game decisions that end up costing his team. A lack of aggression, which Garrett has been panned for, will not produce a winning performance against the reigning Super Bowl champions in their house. To have any chance to outfox the mastermind Bill Belichick, Garrett must be bold – but a leopard doesn’t change its stripes overnight. Never pick against New England at home.
Pick: New England
(Sunday Night) GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO (-3) (Over/Under 45.5)
A potential classic is on tap for the Sunday Night Football fare, especially if the 49ers’ last prime time clash – a narrow overtime loss to the Seahawks – is anything to go by. Back to back divisional games, both close on the scoreboard, have taken some of the sheen off the San Francisco shield. Suddenly they look beatable, and that will be music to the ears of Aaron Rodgers and the rested Packers.
The primary concern for the 49ers is their inability to establish the ground game over the past couple of games. Injuries have struck at the running back position, of course, but they need a solid base on the ground to unlock all the gizmos and gadgets at their disposal off play action. With two weeks to prepare, it will be fascinating to see what Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine has cooked up for Jimmy Garoppolo. Ultimately, this one comes down to the trust factor – and Rodgers in prime time rarely lets you down.
Pick: Green Bay
(Monday Night) BALTIMORE (-2) at LA RAMS (Over/Under 49)
Laying just two points on the road against the Los Angeles Rams is a slight mark of disrespect to Baltimore if you consider how comprehensively they have beaten their opponents this season. Vegas is basically raising an eyebrow, folding its arms and challenging the Ravens to do more, to keep it up. The Lamar Jackson Show continues to be must-see TV, with a league MVP award firmly in his grasp if he maintains this pace. The L.A. defense has played some quality football this season, though, and old Wade Phillips hasn’t been a coach forever for no reason.
Jared Goff took a backseat against the Bears in what was perhaps Sean McVay’s best coaching decision of the season so far. The quarterback has been plagued by turnover-worthy throws; reverting to a run-heavy attack against an inferior opponent was exactly what was required. Will McVay unleash Goff this week? He may have to, but one would assume the Rams might try to play a little keep away to limit Jackson’s possessions. The Ravens get the slight nod due to their hot streak, but this one might be better avoided as long as the line remains at two points.
Pick: Baltimore
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Playoff places will be won and lost over the next few weeks, and time is running out for the teams on the bubble. Week 11 proved to be a successful one for yours truly, but now is not the time to get too high on the horse. With a lot of efficient lines this week – and few open to teasers – we are going to focus on the best spreads:
- 1 TENNESSEE (-3) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- 2 ATLANTA (-4) vs. TAMPA BAY
- 3 GREEN BAY (+3) at SAN FRANCISCO
- 4 NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) vs. DALLAS
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 12 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- TENNESSEE (-3)
- ATLANTA (-4)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 3-TEAM SPREAD BET (5.67-1 ODDS):
- TENNESSEE (-3)
- ATLANTA (-4)
- GREEN BAY (+3)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- NEW ENGLAND (-6.5)
- GREEN BAY (+3)
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: New England, Green Bay, Tennessee, Atlanta, New Orleans
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 9-5
- SEASON OVERALL: 89-73 (54.9%)
- BEST BETS: 22-19 (53.6%), last week 3-1
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 31-19 (62%), last week 4-1
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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