Second-year receiver James Washington had a disappointing rookie season. But the confluence of his expected development and the team's major offensive changes should lead to a 2019 emergence. Let's look at the main factors to consider when evaluating Washington's 2019 prospects.
- Depth Chart: There is good and bad here, but the positive outweighs the negative.
- Offense and Quarterback: Pittsburgh led the NFL is passing attempts last season, they frequently have three receivers on the field at once, and Ben Roethlisberger is among the league's best. This is still fertile soil.
- Talent, Chemistry, and Situation: Washington has a second-round draft pedigree and is building chemistry with his quarterback. He's a key player for Pittsburgh's offense to remain dynamic and versatile, and his coaches and quarterback have acknowledged as much.
Every player has a ceiling and a floor, and gauging how realistic those possibilities are is a critical part of fantasy football. Washington's ceiling situation has him winning Pittsburgh's WR2 job -- certainly a realistic scenario.
Washington has top-16 upside among wide receivers, making him a worthwhile target even if his price tag increases during the preseason. But before highlighting the reasons why, let's examine what the doubters are saying.
The Why Nots
There are two main objections to drafting Washington in 2019 fantasy drafts. His rookie season was underwhelming, and the team brought in competition via free agency and the draft that could prevent Washington from winning the team's WR2 job.
Rookie Season Woes
The 2018 Steelers had some transition on offense. First, there was the LeVeon Bell saga. Second, they were breaking in a first-time offensive coordinator. These factors led to a situation where a set-in-his-ways veteran quarterback leaned on the players with whom he felt most comfortable. Washington made plenty of highlight-reel plays in the preseason (more on that later), but few came while on the field with Roethlisberger. The chemistry was lacking.
Depth Chart
Pittsburgh brought in one wide receiver via free agency and another in the second round of the draft. But without Antonio Brown, these acquisitions are as much for depth as they are to be neck-and-neck competitors with Washington. Examining each, we see the following:
Donte Moncrief is a capable player, but the team didn't draft him. And teams tend to give favor to the players they chose. Moncrief also has no rapport with Roethlisberger or with the offense. Lastly, after five NFL seasons, Moncrief's ceiling is known and limited.
Second-round rookie Diontae Johnson has an exciting future, but Washington's rookie season showed that it can be difficult to catch on with a veteran roster. While impressive in college, Johnson played for Toledo, which means he didn't face top competition throughout his career.
The concerns of competition are overblown. Washington should beat out both new acquisitions, and even if he doesn't, fantasy owners' investment in him was small enough that pulling the plug won't be a sickening feeling.
The Whys
The "Why Nots" aren't many and are easy to overcome. This section will focus on what gives Washington his upside and how his path to fulfilling it isn't far-fetched.
Depth Chart
The opening section of the article said that the positive depth chart changes outweighed the negative. That's because the opportunity for snaps and targets that comes with Brown's departure is the biggest potential boon for Washington's 2019 chances.
| Team | 2018 Pass Att | Tgts Available | % Available |
| Oakland Raiders | 558 | 375 | 67.2% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 555 | 298 | 53.7% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 535 | 268 | 50.1% |
| Buffalo Bills | 499 | 243 | 48.7% |
| New England Patriots | 574 | 235 | 40.9% |
| Detroit Lions | 573 | 224 | 39.1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 624 | 240 | 38.5% |
| New York Jets | 524 | 185 | 35.3% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 427 | 142 | 33.3% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 688 | 227 | 33.0% |
Note: the shading here is relative to the entire NFL, but only the top 10 teams in terms of available target share are pictured.
For the naysayers who might counter the "vacated targets" argument by saying Pittsburgh is unlikely to pass as much this season, that's an astute observation. But this table is sorted by the percentage of targets available. Pittsburgh's 33% of 2018 targets vacated is the 10th-most in the NFL.
Even if we assume Pittsburgh dials back the passing to its average in the five seasons prior to 2018, that represents 593 attempts -- a number that would have ranked eighth in the league last season. One does not need to be a math whiz to realize that a third of 593 is nearly 200 available targets. JuJu Smith-Schuster will absorb some of those, but he saw 166 last season; how big of an increase will he get over that?
It stands to reason that, in addition to Smith-Schuster, two additional Pittsburgh pass-catchers will see over 100 targets this season. And if one emerges as head-and-shoulders above the others, the team's target distribution could return to being as top-heavy as last season when Brown had 169, Smith-Schuster had 166, and no one else had more than 75. Said another way, Washington's upside is 150 targets from an elite quarterback.
The positive outweighs the negative for Washington in terms of depth chart changes. After all, the vacated target share from Brown's departure is a certainty. Washington's competition with the new receiver acquisitions is unsettled. And even if he doesn't clearly win the WR2 job, he still has the potential to see plenty of snaps.
Team and Scheme
According to sharpfootballstats.com, Pittsburgh utilized three receivers on 74% of its plays last season. That ratio ties for fourth-highest in the NFL. The 486 total plays where Pittsburgh used three receivers was the fifth-most in the league.
The question of "who will replace Antonio Brown" is flawed. First, no one can because Brown's talent and production are unparalleled in NFL history. Second, the player who wins Pittsburgh's WR2 job won't be on the field significantly more than Pittsburgh's WR3.
Many are assuming that Smith-Schuster will still be used in the slot due to how well he has played there in this first two seasons. If Pittsburgh wants its best receiver in the slot, the three-receiver sets aren't going away. That means Washington likely wouldn't even have to beat out Moncrief for both to see plenty of snaps.
Talent and Preparation
Washington is one year removed from being a second-round draft pick. That type of pedigree doesn't disappear. He also showed flashes of his game-breaking ability in the preseason last year. The first of two touchdowns he scored against Green Bay in Week 2 of the preseason last year shows a player with tremendous ball skills.
Washington has looked for ways to improve this offseason. Among those, he felt he was too big last season. Therefore, Washington says he has shed 15 pounds from the 223-225 range where he played last season. In theory, the lower weight should add quickness and speed to his game, which already includes the ability to leap and win battles for deep balls, as shown above.
Another offseason activity that Washington is undertaking this year that he did not as a rookie is building rapport with his veteran quarterback, who invited Washington and other skill players to his offseason home in Georgia. Below is a quote by Washington from that article:
“It was always me looking at him like, ‘It’s Ben Roethlisberger, Hall of Famer,’ ” Washington said. “We went down there, and I started to look at him more like a human being like I am. It helped everyone. Everyone felt the way I did. It was good for us.”
Washington is feeling more comfortable with Roethlisberger, and ideally, the gesture of including Washington in his preseason tradition means that the future Hall of Fame quarterback will feel more comfortable throwing to Washington. Both sides are motivated to improve the relationship, as both require it to work in order to be successful this season.
Projections
Below is what our world-class projectors think about Washington in 2019.
| Projector | Gms | Rec | Yds | TDs | PPR | WR Rk |
| Dodds | 16 | 56 | 756 | 5.1 | 162.2 | 40 |
| Henry | 15 | 64 | 840 | 6.5 | 188.0 | 33 |
| Wood | 16 | 65 | 815 | 5.0 | 176.5 | 33 |
| Tremblay | 16 | 49 | 638 | 3.9 | 135.8 | 42 |
Final Thoughts
Washington hasn't won a starting job yet, but he has an inside track to significant playing time even if Moncrief pleasantly surprises. Washington's teammates are already singing his praises early in OTAs.
Acknowledging this is football in shorts and no one can tell much of anything, I asked #Steelers DE Cam Heyward who has raised his eyebrows so far. Said rookie LB Devin Bush (“his athleticism”) and second-year WR James Washington (“he’s more complete”).
— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) May 30, 2019
Cameron Heyward isn't just any observer either; he's a team leader whose opinion is well-respected among teammates and coaches. And the words Heyward used are telling. "More complete" isn't as flashy as words and phrases like "dynamic," "making huge plays," or "game-breaking." But "more complete" gets the attention of coaches who want to see consistency.