You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Ryan Hester's Rent-A-Quarterback
In need of a quarterback this late in the fantasy season? Apparently, many of you do if judging from the popularity of Ryan's column this week as well as the trend to draft quarterbacks later than ever. Here's how Ryan introduces his Rent-A-Quarterback column:
Late-round quarterback drafter? Had an injury to your starter? In need of a bye-week replacement? In this article, you'll find a couple of quarterback options likely available in most leagues (we'll use players rostered in fewer than 60% of Yahoo leagues) who could provide some punch at the quarterback position.
Unless most teams in your league carry a backup quarterback, there should be plenty of starting quarterbacks on your waiver wire each week. Instead of starting a low-end QB1 facing an elite secondary, look to the waiver wire and play the matchups. Ideally, a player who appears in this space gets hot and becomes an every-week starter. If not, throw him back to the wire and come back here next week. Quarterback is one of the most predictable positions in fantasy football. Simply by using matchups, fantasy GMs can start a mid-to-high QB1 every week by using the waiver wire.
It's difficult to disagree. I'll also add that, as a fantasy player who participates in far more keeper and dynasty formats these days (I still love re-draft but time is precious), a lot of the quality dynasty leagues I'm in have opted for small enough rosters that teams prefer to keep young quarterback and it means you won't have streaming options like Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, or Sam Darnold. You're lucky to have anything but untested backups with only a few quarters to a few games of meaningful NFL playing time.
While Ryan is correct that those of you in Yahoo! or ESPN leagues probably have Carr, Mayfield, and Darnold to choose from, the reason I wanted to showcase his column this week was his recommendation of Lions quarterback Jeff Driskel:
JEFF DRISKEL - AT WASHINGTON (TEAM TOTAL: 22.75)
Not having Driskel on the main list week was one of the bigger regrets of the season. He was in contention but was left as a deep play. We won't miss out this week, as Driskel's 11+ rushing fantasy points last week showed us that he can be a fantasy asset even without being a great passer. Washington just yielded over 28 fantasy points to Darnold in a Week 11 home game.
Matt's Thoughts: I'm fortunate to have a 9-2 dynasty squad in a league with a lot of FBG subscribers and forum regulars fitting the description of a small-roster dynasty format (at least from my experiences) that hoards quarterbacks. My two quarterbacks? Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson. With Stafford injured and Wilson on bye, I had few options and I thought Driskel was the best due in large part of Footballguy and RSP contributor Mark Schofield's 2016 scouting report on him from Inside the Pylon because I didn't have the chance to evaluate Driskel myself:
Strengths
Driskel is a very athletic quarterback who was impressive at the 2016 Scouting Combine, posting a 4.58 40-yard dash. He possesses the arm strength to make throws in the short- and intermediate-range with velocity, and can push the football vertically. On deeper throws Driskel has the ability to add touch and place the football on the appropriate shoulder for the situation. He shows good timing on his drops and his footwork often synced well with route concepts, and he has the ability to make timing throws, anticipating the break while throwing his receivers open. The QB is not afraid to challenge smaller throwing windows, particularly the honey hole up the sideline against Cover 2.
When watching Driskel, one area that stands out is his ability to remain calm in the pocket against the blitz. It is rare that designed pressure frustrates him, and against most blitzes he is able to make a quick decision with the football. When facing pressure, Driskel is able to use his athleticism, particularly his quick feet and ability to change direction, to evade pressure and extend the play.
Even though Driskel does a good job of maintaining aggression in the passing game, he does take what the defense gives him on many occasions. He will gladly check the ball down when the coverage and / or situation dicate that it is the smarter course of action, and will live to fight another down. Even though he worked primarily from the shotgun last season, he displayed solid to above-average footwork in the three-step drop game.
Weaknesses
Inconsistency is the biggest weakness that comes to mind watching Driskel. He can be extremely accurate with throws to every level of the field at times, but will go through inconsistent stretches where passes are well off-target. Another area of inconsistency is in his decision-making process. At times (particularly against the blitz) Driskel is extremely quick to evaluate the situation and make the right decision with the football. At other times he is too slow to pull the trigger on throws, waiting to see a receiver come open or waiting to confirm the coverage in his mind. This leads to plays losing their structure and their precision timing.
Driskel tends to stare down receivers, and this can lead to some disastrous or near-disastrous situations. This can even happen on shorter routes or bubble screens, and when you add in some occasional slower decisions, the defense can capitalize with a big play or a turnover. In addition, there are times when Driskel is quick to give up on route concepts and does not give a route the time to break open. His ability to work through progressions remains a bit of a work in progress.
I place a fair bit of weight on quarterbacks who manage the pocket well and understand the balance between being aggressive while also knowing when it's the best time to check down. Combining that conceptual feel with speed and a solid arm, I felt there was an upside opportunity for Driskel to excel in his first start with the Lions. Sure enough, he scored over 30 points last week and was the difference for my squad. Against Washington, Driskel has a chance to be helpful once again.
2. Aaron Rudnicki's IDP Upgrades
I absolutely love that Aaron's work has earned weekly popularity. He's an excellent fantasy player and analyst and it's well-deserved. IDP is kind of like the Ginger Rogers to offense-only-leagues' Fred Astaire—As good as Bloom is, Rudnicki is doing the same work but backpedaling.
Don't know who Astaire and Rodgers were? It's called YouTube, you'll thank me later.
Anyhow, I thought several of Aaron's IDP recommendations were worth noting and I've added my thoughts to some of Aaron's analysis below in bold type:
DE Chad Thomas, CLE (3 solos, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QH, 1 PD)
Thomas didn’t receive much playing time earlier this year but has seen an uptick the past two weeks with the injury to Olivier Vernon. Over the past two games, he has played just under 80% of the defensive snaps and has collected 5 solos with 2 sacks. Thomas had the physical goods of an early-round pick but he was raw, inconsistent, and scouts even worried that he was more interested in a music career than professional football. Thomas is worth a speculative add that could turn out to be a great move for a stretch-run.CB Desmond Trufant, ATL (6 solos, 1 asst, 1 TFL, 1 INT, 1 PD)
Trufant returned to the lineup this week after sitting out the prior 4 games with a turf toe injury. He hadn’t been very productive earlier this year but put up a strong game this week in an easy win over the Panthers. With Trufant back, Blidi Wreh-Wilson returned to the bench. Cornerbacks are added and dropped so often in IDP leagues that I can see Trufant getting dropped due to the injury and the Falcons' woes with its secondary. Trufant has been Atlanta's top cover corner for at least a few years but he has always been an unsound technician who plays with strong feel and athletic ability. Altanta's defense had enough injury issues to defensive backs early that Trufants' style of play hurt him more than it does with the quality of support that has returned to health in recent weeks.LB Dre Greenlaw, SF (8 solos, 2 asst, 1 TFL)
Greenlaw has moved into a full-time role following the injury to Kwon Alexander and has taken advantage of the opportunity. Over his last two games, he has been credited with 11 solos, 7 assists, and an interception while playing all but five snaps. Additionally, the 49ers defense has been on the field a lot more over the past two weeks than they were seeing for most of the year. Alexander was the 65th-ranked fantasy linebacker through Week 9, which is first-tier reserve production in start-four linebacker formats. However, as Aaron noted, the 49ers defense has been on the field a lot more. We can see this through Fred Warner's stats--arguably the best defender on the team. Warner was the 57th-ranked fantasy linebacker through Week 9. Just two weeks later, Warner is 22nd overall. Warner has been the No.2 scorer during this span; Greenlaw is 12th. Get Greenlaw.S Jalen Thompson, ARI (5 solos, 1 INT, 1 PD)
Thompson was taken in the supplemental draft this summer after losing his final year of eligibility and was known as an excellent tackler with big-play ability. He picked off his first pass this week and has started to emerge as the safety counterpart alongside Budda Baker following the release of D.J. Swearinger Sr Sr, surpassing fellow rookie Deionte Thompson.DE Maxx Crosby, OAK (4 solos, 1 asst, 4 sacks, 3 TFL, 4 QH, 1 FF)
Crosby didn’t get as much hype as his fellow rookie pass rusher Clelin Ferrell in Oakland, but he has been getting more playing time and finally had a huge breakout with 4 sacks this week. The Raiders had the weakest pass rush in the league last year following the trade of Khalil Mack but now appear to have a couple of young building blocks in place. Most of the draft guys who I follow on Twitter have been praising Crosby. That's enough for me to consider him.CB Troy Hill, LAR (6 solos, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QH, 1 INT, 3 PD)
Troy Hill took over as a starting cornerback once Aqib Talib was injured but he saw a clear uptick in his production once the team shipped out Marcus Peters and brought in Jalen Ramsey. Having a true shutdown corner playing across from him should ensure that Hill continues to be targeted quite often. He had seven solo tackles and a pass defensed last week and followed that up with a huge effort this week that also included an interception.
If you're not playing IDP but read this, you should consider joining a league. I'll be glad to give you advice on how to start one if you'd like.
3. Devin Knotts' Fanduel and Draft Kings Lineup Optimizers
If you are into DFS, you probably know about Devin's work. Unfortunately, I haven't thought about sharing his work here until now because of timing. His feature always comes out the day after I finish writing the Best of Footballguys.
Knotts delivers an interactive chart where you can build your team on the page according to the current prices and budgetary restrictions for these two big DFS providers:
This is a lineup optimizer for FanDuel using projections by Devin Knotts. Projected points, projected value, and H-value are all displayed. Projected value is equal to projected points divided by salary (and then multiplied by 10,000). H-value is equal to projected points raised to the square root of three, divided by salary (and then multiplied by 2,000). H-value, a measure inspired by Dan Hindery, is often a better indicator of true value than points per dollar. Click on the column headings to sort by that column.
When you click on a player's name, the player is added to your lineup over at the right. Projected total points are displayed above your lineup. Click on a player in your lineup to remove him.
If you fill in a partial lineup with no more than six open spaces, you can have the remaining spaces filled in automatically by clicking on the green "Knotts". To exclude a player from consideration by this feature, click on the green "o" to the right of his name. (Click again to undo.)
Matt's Thoughts: I think this is an excellent tool and well worth your time if interested in playing college DFS. Go to the page and play around with it. Give this week's version a look when it comes out later today.
4. Dan Hindery's DFS College Football Coverage (FAnduel and Draftkings)
I've overlooked Dan's pieces for the same reasons I've overlooked Devin's. Dan keeps up with college football and always offers quality thoughts about players. Every week, Dan's feature highlights the top options, toughest choices, and worthwhile cost-saving alternatives at each position.
Here are some examples from last week's slate:
Jalen Hurts ($12,000) is a fantastic play once again. We want to try to jam him in this week...
...Even priced in his own tier, it is tough not to play Hurts. Aside from an early blowout against an FCS team, he has topped 36 fantasy points in every single game this season. We now have a big enough sample size to feel very comfortable with projecting Hurts for massive production as a runner. In the eight games against FBS opponents, he has rushed for at least 68 yards and 1 touchdown in every single game. His absolute floor as a runner has been 13 fantasy points. We aren’t paying just for the incredible floor, we also want a huge ceiling at this price tag. Hurts brings that as well and has 40+ fantasy points in three straight. His floor as a runner was 13 fantasy points but he also has a game with over 35 points just as a runner. The rushing numbers come on top of his averaging over 300 passing yards and 2.7 passing touchdowns per game. The matchup this Saturday is a difficult one. Baylor has the 14th ranked SP+ defense. However, Iowa State is ranked 18th in SP+ defense and Hurts put up nearly 40 fantasy points just in the first half against them. Of the teams on this slate favored by fewer than two touchdowns, Oklahoma has the highest implied team total (39) points. Given the backslide we have seen in recent weeks from the Oklahoma defense there is no reason to believe we won’t get four full quarters of aggressive play-calling from Oklahoma’s offense and a full game from Hurts. He is a cash-game lock and strong GPP option as well. Matt's Note: Hurts threw for 297 yards and 4 touchdowns while rushing for 114 yards.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER
JOE BURROW, LSU ($10,500)
Burrow has the highest passing projection on the slate and probably has the second-highest floor behind only Jalen Hurts. He is averaging a ridiculous 355.3 passing yards and 3.7 passing touchdowns per game. He has a bit of rushing upside as well (189 yards and 3 touchdowns on the season), though not quite as much as Purdy or Hurts. Going on the road against Ole Miss as a 21-point favorite is a potential letdown spot for the Tigers after an emotional, season-defining win over Alabama last week. If Mississippi is able to hang close in this one, it will be because they have some success running the ball and playing keep away from the LSU offense. Due to the style of offense Ole Miss plays, there is only a very narrow path to a shootout game script. Thus, Burrow’s upside is slightly limited compared to Hurts and Purdy. Matt's Thoughts: Burrow delivered 489 yards and 5 touchdowns against Ole Miss.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON, LSU ($8,800)
Jefferson has one of the highest floors of any receiver on the slate. In five games since returning from injury, he has at least seven receptions in every single game. While Ja’Marr Chase has emerged as a top option as well, Jefferson should probably still be considered the 1A in this offense and even if you want to consider the duo as equals, Jefferson’s $600 price discount compared to Chase makes him the stronger option this week. The matchup against Ole Miss sets up very well for the LSU passing game. The Rebels have been stingy against the run (123 yards per game) but vulnerable against the pass (274 yards per game). Given the matchup, Jefferson has serious upside. We have already seen him post receiving lines of 9-163-3 against Texas, 9-155-2 against Utah State, and 10-123-1 against Florida. Another 100+ yard game with at least one touchdown should be in the offing this weekend. Matt's Thoughts: It's only logical that if you recommended the LSU quarterback to recommend one of his receivers. Jefferson is one of my favorite eligible prospects for the 2020 NFL Draft and he earned 9 catches for 112 yards and 2 scores against the Rebels last week.
I will note that college DFS is probably different to prognosticate than NFL DFS due to the volume of teams to keep up with and the huge variation of outcomes that can force considerations probably rarely experience in the NFL. That said, Dan will give you quality information worth reading.
5. Matt Bitonti's Offensive Line Rankings And Notes
Time to check in with Matt's rankings and thoughts on NFL offensive line units, which is always worthwhile reading. Here are a few that caught my attention:
INDIANAPOLIS UP 2 SLOTS
While much has been made of the play of All-Pro right guard Quenton Nelson (the 'keg stand' TD he scored last week was called back on further review), this upgrade is based on the dominant blocking of center Ryan Kelly. Kelly was part of a monster rushing output of over 260 yards last week against Jacksonville. Kelly had struggled with durability in recent years but the 26-year-old out of Alabama has been a consistent performer all season. The team has a short-week challenge on the road for Thursday Night Football, but the Colts' offensive line should match up well against a Houston defensive front missing J.J. Watt. This line carries a top-3 grade in the latest rankings. Waldman's Thoughts: I love that an offensive line guy recognizes Kelly's skills because everytime I've taken an opportunity to watch Nelson, I find Kelly jumping off the screen the most.
NEW ENGLAND UP 12 SLOTS
Isaiah Wynn has been activated from the injured reserve list after missing most of the season with a toe injury. Wynn is likely to start this week at left tackle, home against Dallas. The expectations are sky-high for this former Georgia Bulldog with only 82 total snaps of NFL game time logged in two injury-plagued seasons. Still, Wynn looked excellent in limited action, and the bar isn't high to at least be an upgrade over Marshall Newhouse (a journeyman backup right tackle, playing out of position). With their starting left tackle back in the lineup, the grade on the New England Patriots' offensive line has risen swiftly to the mid-tier. Waldman's Thoughts: The Patriots have had great timing for years. Wynn's activation is an example. Sony Michel, Tom Brady, and Benjamin Watson are all worth upgrades. Watson because he won't be needed to block as often.
PHILADELPHIA DOWN 5 SLOTS
Right tackle Lane Johnson was forced from the game against New England with a concussion. Johnson did not practice on Wednesday and his status for this weekend's home game against Seattle can be considered highly questionable. Halapoulivaati Vaitai replaced Johnson in the game (and was not good, with Carson Wentz being sacked four times after Johnson's exit). The coaches have decided rookie Andre Dillard will get the first-team right tackle reps this week in practice. Dillard was mostly solid in replacement of Jason Peters earlier in the season, but the switch between sides can often be tricky, especially for young players. The Eagles' offensive line remains a top-tier unit in the rankings, but they have a tough matchup this week at home against Seattle. Waldman's Thoughts: Jadeveon Clowney told the Monday Night Football broadcast crew two weeks ago that he was disappointed in his play and needed to take it up a notch. Clowney made good on his plan against the 49ers before last week's bye—earning five tackles, a sack, a forced fumble, and a fumble return for a touchdown. Wentz is mobile but he's reckless and he's not mobile enough to avoid Clowney all afternoon.
CAROLINA DOWN 6 SLOTS
The Panthers' offensive line was leaky against Atlanta last week, giving up five sacks and ten total quarterback hits. At right tackle, the coaches benched a struggling Taylor Moton for Darryl Williams, but neither player could stop the bleeding. At left tackle, rookie Greg Little looked raw and rusty in his second career start (the first being Week 4 at Houston). Dennis Daley has been recovering from his injuries and could get some action this weekend at New Orleans. The interior of the line has been mostly fine but this line has fallen to the mid-tier and will continue to fall in the rankings until they can get some consistent production from the tackle position. Waldman's Thoughts: Little gave up three sacks to end three consecutive drives in the first half of Carolina's loss at home to Atlanta. New Orleans has the pass rush to exploit Little once again.
Be sure to check out Bitonti's rankings that include grades for the run, pass, and cohesion of the lines.
That's it! And an early Happy Thanksgiving.