One of the toughest things about NFL DFS is that it isn’t nearly as consistent as another very popular sport that is going on right now, the NBA. But surprisingly that hasn’t been the case this year. In years past there has been some inconsistency on how good, or bad, pass defenses are. At the beginning of the year, a team will be bad and throughout the year that team gets better as they focus efforts there, face better opponents, etc. However, this year we have seen the Buccaneers be consistently bad every week. If you just played the Buccaneers opponents every week you would probably own an island in the Caribbean by now. If you used the past precedents of the Buccaneers improving you might have had to take out a second mortgage. The same thing can be said for tight ends against the Arizona Cardinals who again continued their poor trend by allowing 2 more TDs to the intimidating Ross Dwelley last week. Of course, this also applies to the offensive side and we can’t forget Mr. consistency himself Christian McCaffrey who had another 191 yards plus 11 receptions again last week despite his team only scoring 3 points. Do we trust these trends to continue? Or like year’s past will they start to regress? This is a big week to find out as most of these consistent plays are some of the chalkiest plays of the slate.
How to play the chalk
One of the biggest decisions each week is how to handle the chalk on the slate. The chalkiest players are typically the ‘best’ plays on the slate if you are trying to maximize your total points produced. However, if you are looking to win a big tournament you can gain a lot of ground on your competition if you choose a player that outperforms there. If that player is in a lot of lineups you can pass a lot at one time. Balancing scoring the most points and playing against your competition is the toughest part of DFS. In this section, we talk about how to handle the toughest decision of the week. What to do with the chalk:
QB
The chalk at quarterback is going to be centered around the game between the Buccaneers and the Falcons. Of course, this makes a lot of sense since those are the two defenses that the public has attacked week in and week out. Rightfully so, the Falcons are allowing the 6th most yards per attempt and the Buccaneers 10th most. Furthermore, the Buccaneers are allowing the most points per game and the Falcons are 7th. The Falcons points allowed has improved greatly over the last two weeks after allowing only 9 points to the Saints and 3 to the Panthers coming off their bye. The question is whether this is an anomaly or if their defense has turned a corner.
Even if the Falcons defense has improved there isn’t much evidence the Buccaneers has as they have allowed 27, 40, 27, and 34 since their bye while putting up 23, 34, 30, and 17 themselves in those games. There is a pretty high chance this game shoots out since the Buccaneers will likely score points and their defense will allow them.
Where does this leave us on Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston? Right now, their ownerships aren’t too high on Draftkings (low teens) but are a bit higher on Fanduel (upper teens). If the ownership stays where it is now I think you should certainly make both Winston and Ryan a part of your GPP plans. My lean would be for Ryan but both make a good option. I would probably stack up this game with one of their wide receivers if I was running a single lineup. There isn’t a clearer path to a shoot out this week.
RB
One of the chalkier running backs continues to be McCaffrey. As mentioned above he continues to be Mr. Consistency with over 100 total yards in all but the games against the Buccaneers. Of course, he scored 2 TDs in one of those games. This week McCaffrey gets an unfavorable matchup against one of the better defenses in the league in the New Orleans Saints. But matchup doesn’t matter for McCaffrey. He torched the 49ers for 117 rushing yards on just 14 carries in addition to 38 receiving yards and a TD
But the sites have caught on to McCaffrey’s ways and have priced him up to 10,500 on both sites. Running back is the most consistent position in NFL DFS which is a great thing. But it also means that upside is limited a bit, at least for any running back not named McCaffrey. Unfortunately, his ownership and price make him a tough pill to swallow in GPPs outside of a couple of sprinkles especially as it limits your opportunities to afford the expensive players in the Falcons/Buccaneers game. I would prefer those passing games in my single lineups over McCaffrey.
WR
I’ve already mentioned that I think you can go with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, etc from the Falcons and Buccaneers game. I mentioned that’s how I would go if I was only entering one contest. However, another consistent performer, just like McCaffrey is Michael Thomas. What's different with Thomas is he is doing it at the wide receiver position which is much more volatile on a weekly basis. Thomas now has 100+ yards in 4 straight and 6 of 10. He’s gone for 89 or more yards and/or a TD in every game. At a position that isn’t consistent getting an almost guaranteed high-end score is nice. With a little variance on his side, Thomas can break the slate, like he already did back in week 5. This week’s matchup against the Panthers is slightly favorable as they have allowed the 8th most points per game.
The problem like McCaffrey is Thomas’s high price on top of his high ownership. Thomas is $1,300 higher than then next highest receiver on DK and $800 more on FD so it isn’t even particularly close. If I am choosing between Thomas and McCaffrey I will take Thomas and bank on some of the other cheaper running backs for price savings instead of the cheap receivers. However, if I am comparing Thomas to some of the guys in the Falcons game I am going to lean on those guys and hope for the shootout.
TE
We thought the tight end selections were thin last week. It might be even thinner this week! We don’t even have the Cardinals to play their opponent against this week. Unlike the guys above there isn’t a consistent tight end to bank on so it looks like people are going to turn to the one that has the longest track record career-wise in Zach Ertz. The only thing that Ertz has been consistent at is mediocrity as he has 6 of 10 games between 38 and 65 yards. So, he isn’t going to be shut out.
On the bright side, he has started to pick things up the last two weeks with receiving totals of 103 and 94 yards, respectively. If Alshon Jeffery is out again then Ertz will continue to be the priority of the passing game and should be a priority in your GPP lineups with such little upside in the rest of the field. However, if his ownership stays high and Jeffery makes a healthy return I think you need to consider fading Ertz and hoping someone else scores a TD or two.
Playing contrarian
If you play too many chalky players you will be competing against too many people to win first place and the odds will be stacked against you. If you play too many contrarian players you won’t score enough points. Remember, the plays are contrarian because most likely there is something wrong with that player. In general, the public is very smart. Finding that right mix is the second hardest thing to do in DFS. In this section, I will try to point you to some of the most contrarian options on the slate with ownership projection below 5%.
Last week Brady burned me in a great matchup and my projections are saying Brady is another good low owned play. The problem is Brady hasn’t won a major GPP since Rob Gronkowski started his downward trend and I am not sure this is the week he is going to turn it around. If you think otherwise I don’t have an issue taking a chance. I just worry about his upside. Instead, I am going to recommend Jeff Driskel, assuming Matthew Stafford is out again. In Driskel’s two games he’s looked capable. He’s averaging 239 passing yards but more importantly, he’s averaging 44 rushing yards as well as 0.5 rushing TD’s so far. This week Driskell gets the Redskins who are allowing the 8th most yards per attempt. At a reasonable price tag, he helps you get some of the expensive chalk mentioned above.
Tarik Cohen has quietly picked up 53% and 59% of the snaps the last two weeks as David Montgomery has been banged up and underperforming. It’s not uncommon for rookies that have been relied upon heavily to hit a wall and if Cohen continues to get opportunities he could easily be in a GPP winning lineup. Cohen is not only involved in the running game but more importantly in the passing game as well, averaging 4 receptions per game. If you are spending up elsewhere don’t be afraid to save money with Cohen.
The DFS community appears to have given up on Courtland Sutton with Brandon Allen at QB. However, Sutton looked pretty good in a less than ideal matchup against the Vikings hauling in 5 catches for 113 yards. While it is unlikely that he will do that against another solid defense in the Bills there is a better than 2% chance which is where his current ownership projection stands so he will be a part of my GPP plans.
Since Will Dissly went out to injury four games ago Jacob Hollister’s receiving yards have been ticking up. They started at 20 and have gone 18, 37, and 62 since. He’s also scored a touchdown in two straight games. His snaps have also been ticking up topping out at 78 and 80% the last two weeks. This week he faces the Eagles whose pass defense has been suspect and has Russell Wilson at QB. Don’t sleep on Hollister like the rest of the fantasy community.
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