Review of Last Week
Last week was a bit of a crazy week. It started out by looking like Derrick Henry was a near must-play as he had 195 yards rushing, but the salary saved with Aaron Jones allowed us to go up to Travis Kelce who if you played Kelce last week life was good as the tight end was the key to the slate racking up 134 yards on 10 receptions with 3 touchdowns. Jones was still good as he had two touchdowns, and Lamar Jackson even though he looked awful in the game was still more than viable in fantasy as he had over 100 yards rushing and over 300 yards passing. The one big mistake that was made was not having Damien Williams who only ran for 47 yards, but did find the end-zone twice. The other mistake would have to be picking the wrong speed receiver for the Texans as Kenny Stills caught the long touchdown while Will Fuller still had a nice game with 5 receptions for 89 yards, but did not score.
Two-Game Slate
This week, we are going to be doing it a little bit differently since it is only a two-game slate. We are just going to jump in and break down game by game and who the top plays and secondary plays are in that game for cash.
Tennessee Titans +7 Expected Total 22.5
Will the Titans need to throw the ball is the key to this slate as they have been riding Derrick Henry the last three weeks. In those games, Henry is averaging 32 carries for 196 yards and has scored four touchdowns in those three contests. The problem with Henry in cash this week is how you fit him into your lineup as it is tough to take a running back who is a 7 point underdog and does not play a significant role catching the ball at $9,800. Henry did dominate the first matchup rushing for 188 yards and 2 touchdowns and if you can find a way to afford him is a great play this week.
Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill has averaged just 14.5 pass attempts over his last two games throwing for an average of 80 yards. This is likely to change this week as it seemingly is unlikely that the Titans will have the lead for the majority of the game this week and will likely have to keep pace against the high-powered Chiefs offense. Tannehill is a sneaky game stack quarterback in the scenario in which Kansas City gets out to an early lead
A.J. Brown continues to be a receiver who has done well in games where he is not facing an elite cornerback as he was largely shut-down last week catching the ball just once. Brown is in a nice bounce-back spot at just $6,800 this week as he will see a lot of Bashaud Breeland who has struggled and with no Juan Thornhill at safety there is risk for a long play as we saw last week for the Texans.
Jonnu Smith at the tight end position is not a great option, but if you are playing both Derrick Henry and Patrick Mahomes II he may be your best punt option at the tight end position this week as outside of Travis Kelce and George Kittle the tight end position is a waste land this week. Smith scored a touchdown last week and did see 3 of the team’s 14 targets.
Core Options: None
Secondary Options: A.J. Brown, Derrick Henry, Jonnu Smith, Ryan Tannehill
Kansas City Chiefs -7 Expected Total 29.5
Of the quarterbacks on this slate, Patrick Mahomes II is the clear guy who is safe this week, but that safety comes at a price as he is priced all the way up at $9,500. Mahomes looked great last week after a rough first quarter as he threw for five touchdowns and 321 yards, but the price remains a concern as it is a lot to pay for a quarterback who is not going to rack up rushing yards. Mahomes dominated the Titans the first time they met as the quarterback threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns, but that was a game in which the Titans actually won 35-32.
At the running back position, Damien Williams price has risen up to $7,600, which for this slate just seems too high when Aaron Jones is just $200 more. Williams is in a difficult matchup as the Titans defense has been much better after they got through some mid-season struggles with Jurrell Casey being less than 100% for a large portion of the season. The one benefit of playing Williams is you can essentially guarantee yourself the touchdowns on the Chiefs if you play Williams, Kelce, and Hill.
Tyreek Hill is an interesting scenario as his price has come down to $7,400 which makes it seem incredibly cheap this week, but if you look over his last seven games it is easy to see why and the $7,400 price tag looks expensive. Hill has scored a touchdown in just one of those seven games and has not topped 75 yards during that time. He is still an explosive receiver who dominated the first matchup between these two teams, but something just seems off with him as he has just two receptions longer than 21 yards over those seven games. He will likely see a lot of Adoree Jackson who is one of the faster corners in the league, but Hill was able to dominate the matchup the first time that they met. With his price at $7,400, he is a guy that will be popular which with his upside you may just want to play him due to the lack of wide receiver options. Sammy Watkins will likely be popular, but he’s a guy who hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1, and is too volatile as he has just five catches over his last three games.
Travis Kelce is a guy who just needs to be in your lineup this week even at $7,800 as the tight end market is incredibly weak this week.
Core Options: Travis Kelce
Secondary Options: Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, Damien Williams
Green Bay Packers +7.5 Expected Total 19
At this point, any expectation that Aaron Rodgers will turn it around and is safe enough in cash is probably the wrong assumption. Rodgers has thrown for over 250 yards just once in his last nine games as he has turned into a game manager and as we saw last week this offense became incredibly conservative when they got a lead which almost cost them the game. Part of the issue is that the Packers simply have very limited options at the wide receiver position as outside of Davante Adams, the team does not have a reliable second receiver. Rodgers struggled the first time these two teams met as he threw for just 104 yards and was sacked 5 times as the Packers lost 37-8. Rodgers is still in play, simply because there are a lack of great options outside of Mahomes, but there is a lot of risk in play with Rodgers this week.
At the running back position, on a slate where there are limited running back options, Aaron Jones is intriguing as even though it is a difficult matchup on paper as the 49ers have allowed the third fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, they are allowing 4.3 yards-per-carry. Even with Jamaal Williams back, the Packers showed that this offense belongs to Aaron Jones as he had 21 carries which marks the third straight game that he has topped 20 carries. The Packers run game was shut down the first time these two teams met, as Jones was held to just 2.9 yards per carry, but that was a game in which the Packers were dominated from the start.
Davante Adams has been the team MVP over the last four games after yo-yoing for most of the year. Adams has seen 13.25 targets over his last four games and has averaged 118 yards per game during that time. The one problem here is that Adams is going to see a lot of Richard Sherman this week which is a problem as Sherman has been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL this season and if there is a knock on Sherman it is the lack of elite speed. Adams is a slower receiver which plays into Sherman’s advantage which we saw in the first game as Adams saw 12 targets, but was held to just 43 yards. The one interesting player this week is Allen Lazard at $5,100. Lazard suffered an ankle injury last week that left him out for most of the game before returning in the second half when the Packers were just running the ball. Prior to last week however, Lazard had two consecutive games where he had five receptions or more averaging 57 yard in those two contests as the Packers look for a number two receiver they could look to Lazard and he would make for a great value play this week.
Core Options: None
Secondary Options: Allen Lazard, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams (Cash Plus), Aaron Rodgers (Cash Plus)
San Francisco 49ers -7.5 Expected Total 26.5
San Francisco is the most interesting team on this slate and is likely going to be how you either win or lose this week. First and foremost, Jimmy Garoppolo is the way to go at quarterback this week if you are looking for a cheap option and are unable to find a way to get up to Mahomes. While Garoppolo was disappointing from a fantasy perspective last week against Minnesota, it was mostly due to game script and Minnesota’s inability to stop the combination of Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert. While Garoppolo doesn’t have the high upside of a Mahomes, what he provides is consistency. Over his last 10 games, he has thrown for at least 240 yards in 7 of those games which if he is able to throw a couple of touchdowns could pay off his low salary.
At the running back position, Tevin Coleman turned the fantasy world upside down last week when he 22 carries for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns after most thinking Raheem Mostert would see a vast majority of the carries. While Mostert still had 12 carries, he was outsnapped by Coleman 46% to 34%. The question is what do we do this week with Coleman at $6,500 and Mostert at $5,800. The reality is that in a game where both running backs should see 12+ touches, it is not crazy to start both of them in the same roster in cash.
Even though both Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders disappointed last week, they are both in a great spot once again as their price at $6,300 and $5,500 both remain low. Of the two, they’re very similar players, but the edge goes to Sanders this week simply because of the price difference. At $5,500 there are not a lot of great options as you go further down the list. All you are hoping for from Sanders at this point is 4 receptions for 50 yards and a chance to score a touchdown which should be more than reasonable especially when he lines up in the slot as we have seen Anthony Miller and Tyler Lockett both top 100 yards against Green Bay in two of their last three games.
At the tight end position, George Kittle was a massive disappointment last week as most of the passing game for the 49ers. Kittle had just 3 receptions for 16 yards. Kittle at $7,000 is an expensive option at the tight end position and one that is difficult to get to especially when Travis Kelce is just $800 more or you can find significant salary savings by going up to Kittle. In reality, Kittle makes for a solid flex play this week due to the lack of mid-tier options at the running back and receiver position, so if you wanted to play two tight ends it is a viable strategy this week as the Packers have struggled against the position. In their first meeting, Kittle dominated with 6 receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown and he was one of four tight ends this year to top 80 yards against the Packers.
Core Options: Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, 49ers defense
Secondary Options: Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH - (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 113.1)
- QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $9,500
- RB Tevin Coleman, SF, $6,500
- RB Raheem Mostert, SF, $5,800
- WR- Emmanuel Sanders, SF, $5,500
- WR Tyreek Hill, KC, $7,400
- WR Allen Lazard, GB, $5,100
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,500
- Flex RB- Aaron Jones, GB, $7,800
- TD San Francisco, $4,600
That'll wrap up the year, thanks for following along.
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