Photo: USA Today Sports
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 12/30 @ 8 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Oakland | -14 | 33.25 | 52.5 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | -14.5 | 30 | 45.5 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| New England | NY Jets | -13.5 | 30 | 46.5 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
| LA Rams | San Francisco | -10.5 | 29.5 | 48.5 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Atlanta | Tampa Bay | -2 | 27 | 52 | ++ | ++ | |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -8 | 26.75 | 45.5 | ++ | +++ | + |
| Seattle | Arizona | -13 | 25.75 | 38.5 | + | ++ | +++ |
| Tampa Bay | Atlanta | 2 | 25 | 52 | + | + | |
| New Orleans | Carolina | -7 | 25 | 43 | + | ++ | + |
| Baltimore | Cleveland | -6.5 | 24.75 | 43 | + | + | + |
| Philadelphia | Washington | -6.5 | 24.25 | 42 | + | + | ++ |
| LA Chargers | Denver | -6.5 | 24 | 41.5 | + | + | ++ |
| NY Giants | Dallas | -6 | 23.5 | 41 | ++ | ||
| Indianapolis | Tennessee | -3 | 23.5 | 44 | |||
| Houston | Jacksonville | -7 | 23.5 | 40 | ++ | ||
| Minnesota | Chicago | -5.5 | 23 | 40.5 | ++ | ||
| Buffalo | Miami | -5 | 22.25 | 39.5 | ++ | ||
| Tennessee | Indianapolis | 3 | 20.5 | 44 | |||
| Oakland | Kansas City | 14 | 19.25 | 52.5 | |||
| San Francisco | LA Rams | 10.5 | 19 | 48.5 | |||
| Detroit | Green Bay | 8 | 18.75 | 45.5 | |||
| Cleveland | Baltimore | 6.5 | 18.25 | 43 | |||
| Carolina | New Orleans | 7 | 18 | 43 | |||
| Washington | Philadelphia | 6.5 | 17.75 | 42 | |||
| Chicago | Minnesota | 5.5 | 17.5 | 40.5 | |||
| Dallas | NY Giants | 6 | 17.5 | 41 | |||
| Denver | LA Chargers | 6.5 | 17.5 | 41.5 | |||
| Miami | Buffalo | 5 | 17.25 | 39.5 | |||
| Jacksonville | Houston | 7 | 16.5 | 40 | |||
| NY Jets | New England | 13.5 | 16.5 | 46.5 | |||
| Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | 14.5 | 15.5 | 45.5 | |||
| Arizona | Seattle | 13 | 12.75 | 38.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Tom Brady (Patriots), Jared Goff (Rams)
- Running Back: Damien Williams/Spencer Ware (Chiefs), James Conner (Steelers), C.J. Anderson (Rams), Sony Michel/James White/Rex Burkhead (Patriots), Jamaal Williams (Packers)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Chris Conley/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), JuJu Smith-Schuster/James Washingtons/Vance McDonald (Steelers), Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Gerald Everett (Rams)
- Defense: Seahawks, Steelers
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Brian Hill/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Dwayne Washington (Saints)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Davante Adams/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Jake Kumerow/Jimmy Graham (Packers)
- Defense: Patriots, Texans, Bills, Chargers, Giants, Vikings, Eagles
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Drew Brees (Saints), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Nick Foles (Eagles), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
- Running Back: Peyton Barber (Buccaneers), Gus Edwards (Ravens), Josh Adams (Eagles), Melvin Gordon (Chargers)
- Receivers: Doug Baldwin/David Moore/Tyler Lockett (Seahawks), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), Keith Kirkwood/TreQuan Smith/Josh Hill (Saints), Michael Crabtree/John Brown/Mark Andrews (Ravens), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Golden Tate/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Tyrell Williams/Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Antonio Gates (Chargers)
- Defense: Saints, Ravens, Packers, Rams, Chiefs
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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Daily FF
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Davante Adams
Josh Adams
Nelson Agholor
Keenan Allen
Mark Andrews
Peyton Barber
Tom Brady
Cameron Brate
John Brown
Rex Burkhead
Chris Carson
Tevin Coleman
Chris Conley
James Conner
Brandin Cooks
Gus Edwards
Zach Ertz
Mike Evans
Gerald Everett
Nick Foles
Chris Godwin
Jared Goff
Melvin Gordon III
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Brian Hill
Tyreek Hill
Chris Hogan
Austin Hooper
Lamar Jackson
Julio Jones
Travis Kelce
Jake Kumerow
Tyler Lockett
Patrick Mahomes II
Sony Michel
David Moore
Calvin Ridley
Aaron Rodgers
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Tre'Quan Smith
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Dwayne Washington
James White
Damien Williams
Jamaal Williams
Mike Williams
Tyrell Williams
Russell Wilson
Jameis Winston
Robert Woods
