Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 10/28 @ 8 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Rams | Green Bay | -8 | 32.75 | 57.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Kansas City | Denver | -10 | 31.75 | 53.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Cincinnati | Tampa Bay | -4 | 29.25 | 54.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| New England | Buffalo | -14 | 29 | 44 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| Pittsburgh | Cleveland | -8 | 28 | 48 | +++ | +++ | |
| New Orleans | Minnesota | -1.5 | 27.75 | 54 | + | + | |
| Indianapolis | Oakland | -3 | 27 | 51 | ++ | ++ | |
| Minnesota | New Orleans | 1.5 | 26.25 | 54 | ++ | ++ | |
| Houston | Miami | -7.5 | 26.25 | 45 | + | ++ | + |
| Chicago | NY Jets | -9.5 | 26 | 42.5 | ++ | +++ | + |
| Detroit | Seattle | -3 | 25.75 | 48.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Tampa Bay | Cincinnati | 4 | 25.25 | 54.5 | + | + | |
| Green Bay | LA Rams | 8 | 24.75 | 57.5 | |||
| Oakland | Indianapolis | 3 | 24 | 51 | |||
| Philadelphia | Jacksonville | -4 | 24 | 44 | + | ||
| Baltimore | Carolina | -2.5 | 23.25 | 44 | |||
| Seattle | Detroit | 3 | 22.75 | 48.5 | |||
| Washington | NY Giants | -1 | 22.5 | 44 | |||
| Denver | Kansas City | 10 | 21.75 | 53.5 | |||
| NY Giants | Washington | 1 | 21.5 | 44 | |||
| San Francisco | Arizona | -1 | 21 | 41 | |||
| Carolina | Baltimore | 2.5 | 20.75 | 44 | |||
| Arizona | San Francisco | 1 | 20 | 41 | |||
| Cleveland | Pittsburgh | 8 | 20 | 48 | |||
| Jacksonville | Philadelphia | 4 | 20 | 44 | |||
| Miami | Houston | 7.5 | 18.75 | 45 | |||
| NY Jets | Chicago | 9.5 | 16.5 | 42.5 | |||
| Buffalo | New England | 14 | 15 | 44 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Jared Cook (Rams), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Todd Gurley (Rams), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), James Conner (Steelers), Joe Mixon (Bengals), Kenjon Barner/James White (Patriots), Jordan Howard/Tarik Cohen (Bears), Lamar Miller (Texans)
- Receivers: Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Josh Reynolds (Rams), Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers), A.J. Green/Tyler Boyd/C.J. Uzomah (Bengals), Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Josh Gordon (Patriots)
- Defense: Patriots
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Andrew Luck (Colts), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Mitchell Trubisky (Bears), Deshaun Watson (Texans)
- Running Back: Latavius Murray (Vikings), Marlon Mack (Colts), Kerryon Johnson/LeGarrette Blount (Lions)
- Receivers: Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Ryan Grant/Chester Rogers/Eric Ebron (Colts), Marvin Jones/Kenny Golladay/Golden Tate (Lions), Allen Robinson/Anthony Miller/Taylor Gabriel/Trey Burton (Bears), DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller/Tyler Ervin (Texans)
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Peyton Barber/Ronald Jones II II (Buccaneers)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/TreQuan Smith/Ben Watson (Saints), Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson/O.J. Howard (Buccaneers)
- Defense: Texans, Bears, Eagles