Photo: USA Today Sports
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 10/28 @ 8 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Rams | Green Bay | -8 | 32.75 | 57.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Kansas City | Denver | -10 | 31.75 | 53.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Cincinnati | Tampa Bay | -4 | 29.25 | 54.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| New England | Buffalo | -14 | 29 | 44 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| Pittsburgh | Cleveland | -8 | 28 | 48 | +++ | +++ | |
| New Orleans | Minnesota | -1.5 | 27.75 | 54 | + | + | |
| Indianapolis | Oakland | -3 | 27 | 51 | ++ | ++ | |
| Minnesota | New Orleans | 1.5 | 26.25 | 54 | ++ | ++ | |
| Houston | Miami | -7.5 | 26.25 | 45 | + | ++ | + |
| Chicago | NY Jets | -9.5 | 26 | 42.5 | ++ | +++ | + |
| Detroit | Seattle | -3 | 25.75 | 48.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Tampa Bay | Cincinnati | 4 | 25.25 | 54.5 | + | + | |
| Green Bay | LA Rams | 8 | 24.75 | 57.5 | |||
| Oakland | Indianapolis | 3 | 24 | 51 | |||
| Philadelphia | Jacksonville | -4 | 24 | 44 | + | ||
| Baltimore | Carolina | -2.5 | 23.25 | 44 | |||
| Seattle | Detroit | 3 | 22.75 | 48.5 | |||
| Washington | NY Giants | -1 | 22.5 | 44 | |||
| Denver | Kansas City | 10 | 21.75 | 53.5 | |||
| NY Giants | Washington | 1 | 21.5 | 44 | |||
| San Francisco | Arizona | -1 | 21 | 41 | |||
| Carolina | Baltimore | 2.5 | 20.75 | 44 | |||
| Arizona | San Francisco | 1 | 20 | 41 | |||
| Cleveland | Pittsburgh | 8 | 20 | 48 | |||
| Jacksonville | Philadelphia | 4 | 20 | 44 | |||
| Miami | Houston | 7.5 | 18.75 | 45 | |||
| NY Jets | Chicago | 9.5 | 16.5 | 42.5 | |||
| Buffalo | New England | 14 | 15 | 44 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Jared Cook (Rams), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Todd Gurley (Rams), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), James Conner (Steelers), Joe Mixon (Bengals), Kenjon Barner/James White (Patriots), Jordan Howard/Tarik Cohen (Bears), Lamar Miller (Texans)
- Receivers: Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Josh Reynolds (Rams), Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers), A.J. Green/Tyler Boyd/C.J. Uzomah (Bengals), Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Josh Gordon (Patriots)
- Defense: Patriots
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Andrew Luck (Colts), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Mitchell Trubisky (Bears), Deshaun Watson (Texans)
- Running Back: Latavius Murray (Vikings), Marlon Mack (Colts), Kerryon Johnson/LeGarrette Blount (Lions)
- Receivers: Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Ryan Grant/Chester Rogers/Eric Ebron (Colts), Marvin Jones/Kenny Golladay/Golden Tate (Lions), Allen Robinson/Anthony Miller/Taylor Gabriel/Trey Burton (Bears), DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller/Tyler Ervin (Texans)
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Peyton Barber/Ronald Jones II II (Buccaneers)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/TreQuan Smith/Ben Watson (Saints), Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson/O.J. Howard (Buccaneers)
- Defense: Texans, Bears, Eagles
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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Peyton Barber
Kenjon Barner
Tyler Boyd
Tom Brady
Antonio Brown
James Conner
Brandin Cooks
Jared Cook
Kirk Cousins
Andy Dalton
Stefon Diggs
Eric Ebron
Mike Evans
Will Fuller V
Kenny Golladay
Josh Gordon
A.J. Green
Tyreek Hill
Chris Hogan
DeAndre Hopkins
Jordan Howard
O.J. Howard
Kareem Hunt
Mark Ingram II
DeSean Jackson
Kerryon Johnson
Marvin Jones Jr
Ronald Jones II
Alvin Kamara
Travis Kelce
Marlon Mack
Patrick Mahomes II
Anthony Miller
Joe Mixon
Latavius Murray
Josh Reynolds
Allen Robinson II
Ben Roethlisberger
Chester Rogers
Kyle Rudolph
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Tre'Quan Smith
Matthew Stafford
Adam Thielen
Michael Thomas
Mitch Trubisky
C.J. Uzomah
Sammy Watkins
Deshaun Watson
James White
Jameis Winston
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