Photo: USA Today Sports
This is the third installment in the True Fantasy Points (TFP) series for 2018. To read the article on quarterbacks, click here. To read the article on running backs, click here. And if you want to learn more about the statistical methodology underlying the series, click here or here.
Today's article will identify two overvalued wide receivers and two undervalued wide receivers. One of this latter pair is the most undervalued player in fantasy drafts according to the combination of his TFP and Average Draft Position.
Below is a table showing David Dodds' projections, TFP, and their difference for 59 wide receivers who meet the following criteria:
- They're on the same team as they were last season.
- They're projected for at least 300 "opportunities," which is defined as rushing attempts plus routes run.
| Dodds' Stats | True Stats | Points | ||||||
| Wide Receiver | Team | ReYds | ReTDs | ReYds | ReTDs | Dodds | TFP | Diff |
| Stefon Diggs | MIN | 931 | 7 | 864 | 5 | 137.0 | 119.8 | +17.2 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | 1015 | 7 | 918 | 6 | 156.0 | 139.1 | +16.9 |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | 1350 | 10 | 1329 | 8 | 195.0 | 179.2 | +15.8 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 1321 | 11 | 1337 | 8 | 195.1 | 182.3 | +12.8 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 1336 | 7 | 1273 | 6 | 174.6 | 164.2 | +10.4 |
| Julian Edelman | NE | 655 | 5 | 625 | 3 | 94.0 | 84.4 | +9.6 |
| Marquise Goodwin | SF | 961 | 6 | 969 | 4 | 134.5 | 125.3 | +9.2 |
| Adam Thielen | MIN | 1098 | 6 | 1079 | 5 | 147.4 | 138.5 | +8.9 |
| T.Y. Hilton | IND | 1140 | 8 | 1155 | 6 | 159.6 | 150.8 | +8.8 |
| Mike Williams | LAC | 549 | 4 | 519 | 3 | 78.9 | 70.9 | +8.0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | 911 | 7 | 900 | 6 | 132.4 | 124.6 | +7.8 |
| Golden Tate | DET | 862 | 6 | 883 | 4 | 122.1 | 116.0 | +6.1 |
| Ted Ginn Jr | NO | 562 | 4 | 552 | 3 | 81.8 | 76.1 | +5.7 |
| Corey Davis | TEN | 756 | 5 | 773 | 4 | 107.4 | 101.8 | +5.6 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | BUF | 759 | 5 | 739 | 4 | 105.9 | 100.3 | +5.6 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | 820 | 5 | 796 | 5 | 112.6 | 107.2 | +5.4 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | 1218 | 8 | 1222 | 7 | 168.2 | 163.2 | +5.0 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 595 | 3 | 578 | 3 | 79.3 | 74.5 | +4.8 |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 1125 | 7 | 1116 | 6 | 154.9 | 150.1 | +4.8 |
| Dede Westbrook | JAX | 611 | 5 | 622 | 4 | 88.1 | 83.6 | +4.5 |
| Tyrell Williams | LAC | 684 | 5 | 685 | 4 | 97.8 | 94.5 | +3.3 |
| Jamison Crowder | WAS | 854 | 5 | 837 | 5 | 118.3 | 115.0 | +3.3 |
| DeVante Parker | MIA | 647 | 4 | 673 | 3 | 91.1 | 87.9 | +3.2 |
| Davante Adams | GB | 1021 | 8 | 990 | 8 | 151.9 | Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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