#Trendspotting: Week 7 - Footballguys

Ryan Hester's #Trendspotting: Week 7 - Footballguys Ryan Hester Published 10/18/2018

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

  • All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing only a limited number of teams.
  • All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
  • All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
  • All fantasy points rankings in the matchup graphics are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

Follow the Targets

In this section, we'll examine how the worst passing defenses in the NFL allow their production.

RBs WRs TEs
Team Tgt% YdsRk TDs Tgt% YdsRk TDs Tgt% YdsRk TDs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20.4% 30 3 56.6% 29 10 23.0% 32 3
New Orleans Saints 19.3% 14 1 63.2% 32 10 17.5% 3 0
Philadelphia Eagles 22.3% 24 0 63.9% 28 7 13.7% 2 1
Chicago Bears 16.3% 4 1 64.0% 31 6 19.8% 10 4
Minnesota Vikings 17.1% 20 2 58.8% 13 6 24.1% 29 2
San Francisco 49ers 25.3% 21 2 54.9% 21 8 19.7% 23 4
Los Angeles Chargers 21.8% 28 1 55.3% 17 9 22.8% 16 2
Kansas City Chiefs 21.9% 32 3 59.1% 22 6 19.0% 31 1

Commentary

  • New Orleans allows 229.4 yards per game to wide receivers, most in the NFL.
  • New Orleans and Tampa Bay have allowed 10 touchdowns to wide receivers, most in the NFL. Their 2.0 touchdowns per game to wide receivers is the highest per-game average.
  • New Orleans allows74.8% of their total passing yards and 63.4% of their receptions to wide receivers, both of which are the second-highest ratios in the NFL.
  • New Orleans allows 63.4% of its total receptions and 73.2% of total passing yards to wide receivers, both the second-highest ratios in the NFL.
  • Tampa Bay allows 97.2 yards per game to tight ends, most in the NFL.
  • Tampa Bay allows 7.2 receptions per game to tight ends, second-most in the NFL.
  • Tampa Bay allows 21.1 DraftKings points per game to tight ends, most in the NFL.
  • Of all targets against Chicago, 64.0% are to wide receivers, the fifth-highest ratio in the NFL.
  • Chicago allows 211.2 yards per game to wide receivers, second-most in the NFL.
  • Kansas City allows 7.7 receptions per game to running backs, second-most in the NFL.
  • Kansas City allows 85.0 receiving yards per game to running backs, most in the NFL.
  • Kansas City allows 19.2 receiving fantasy points per game to running backs, most in the NFL.

Action Items

As written in Rent-a-Quarterback this week, Joe Flacco would have a better fantasy outlook if his defense weren't so good. Against Tennessee, Flacco didn't have to counter-punch, making his fantasy day average. But against New Orleans, Baltimore's offense will likely have to play a full four quarters. Flacco is a QB1 in season-long leagues and one of the better cheap quarterback options in DFS. And a savvy DFS stacking partner with Flacco is John Brown. The diminutive speedster is seeing a modest target share at just 17.1% (second on the team behind Michael Crabtree), but he's getting high-leverage targets both in the red zone and deep down the field.

Brown has 924 total air yards, third in the NFL. Brown's average depth-of-target (aDOT) is 19.7 yards, fourth-highest in the NFL among players with at least five targets on the season. In fact, Brown's aDOT is only surpassed by players with 8, 9, and 14 targets. The mix of his target volume and aDOT is a combustible potion, just waiting to explode into a massive game.

Josh Gordon's usage continues to increase, which is something even Bill Belichick acknowledged. Gordon's targets in his three New England games: 2, 4, and 9. Gordon's snap rates in those games: 22%, 26%, 81%. Gordon is a worthwhile lineup filler in GPPs if you're looking to spend up at running back.

David Njoku's usage is on the rise. And some noticed it from the moment Baker Mayfield entered his first game in relief of Tyrod Taylor (please excuse the shameless self-promotion).

But some others have taken notice of the Mayfield-Njoku connection as well:

In his three fully healthy games, Joe Mixon has seen 7, 4, and 7 targets. In Week 7, he gets a Kansas City team that should be sending thank-you notes to Atlanta for being so bad for so long that the 2018 Chiefs are going under the radar. If playing the full slate or the Sunday-Monday slate, Mixon is at the bottom of a pricing tier in DFS, especially on DraftKings. But he has a higher floor and ceiling than some of the backs priced above him and is clearly superior to those priced below him.

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Dealer's Choice

This week, we're replacing "Funnel Watch" with a new section. I sought requests on Twitter for trends and ideas that you, dear readers, wanted to see in this week's column.

Here are a couple of the responses:

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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