Let's scrap the typical introduction; if you're still reading this in Week 17, you know what we do here. After we recap last week's plays and discuss this week's options, be sure to read the final section below for a recap on this season's results.
Using the average of each week's "candidates" section, we had sustained (albeit, not smashing) success -- especially from Week 6 on.
Week 16 Results
Let's take a look at how last week's recommendations fared.
Nick Foles - vs. Houston
Last week's top choice ended up being this season's top producer in the Rent-a-Quarterback space. Foles lit up the Texans for 38.7 fantasy points, the highest gross score of any quarterback selection this season, narrowly besting Jameis Winston's Week 6 performance of 36.9 fantasy points in his return to the starting lineup after the "Fitzmagic" had dried up for the first time.
Foles was the perfect "process" play. He was in a game with a high total, playing a defense that was deceptively bad (decent stats against aided by poor competition), and in a must-win game for his team. 38.7 wasn't the expectation, but a top-six weekly finish felt like it was in play. Foles ended the Week as the QB3, only because of virtuoso performances by Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson.
Josh Allen - at New England
Allen's fantasy glory felt like it was due to come to an end, and against a Bill Belichick defense felt like the time it would happen. But the process was still in place to look at Allen last week. Unfortunately, it didn't work out, as Allen passed for 217 yards and 1 touchdown. He also didn't generate much rushing production, which had been key to his recent success. Allen ended the week as the QB22.
Week 17 Candidates
Here are the players available in at least 40% of typical leagues who could provide QB1 production this week.
Nick Foles - at Washington
Despite all of their struggles throughout the season, Philadelphia can still make the playoffs with a win and a Minnesota loss. This makes it likely that Philadelphia will be exerting maximum effort to defeat Washington, making this another great spot for our Week 16 hero.
Jameis Winston - vs. Atlanta
Post-publish edit: We were wrapped up with wrapping gifts when Dirk Koetter first mentioned the prospect of playing Ryan Griffin on Monday. When he mentioned it again after this article published, we had to cross Winston off the list. If you play season-long in Week 17 and don't have a quarterback, godspeed. If you're reading this for DFS purposes, pay up for quarterback this week and find your value elsewhere (don't worry, there is plenty).
Post-publish addition:
Lamar Jackson - vs. Cleveland
The matchup is fine, but that doesn't matter with Jackson. We're looking for rushing production, and Jackson will have enough designed runs to give us a floor. And he is progressing as a passer as well. In a game Baltimore must win, Jackson will do what is necessary.
Deep Leagues Only
These selections are best saved for deeper leagues and/or 2QB/Superflex leagues.
- Blake Bortles - at Houston: he's starting again, and Houston hasn't been great against the pass. Houston could also pull starters here if (when?) they gain a big lead.
Looking Back
Let's see how we did this season. In the graph below, the blue line represents the average weekly finish of our top quarterback picks each week. These do not include those in the "Deep Leagues Only" section. The red bars (charted on the secondary axis at right) represent the average fantasy points scored by those selections.
The blue line is the more important measure, as raw points can be misleading. For example, in Week 5, our picks averaged 20.6 fantasy points and finished as QB18 on average. In Week 15, however, the picks scored an average of 17.0 fantasy points and finished as QB13. How we score relative to our competition in that week is more important to fantasy success than measuring fantasy points across the season.
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports