As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend and look for other opportunities.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS
Public Trend – 60% of the public bets favor Kansas City
I’ve seen as much as 80% of the public money going toward Kansas City in this game. And why not? They are 8-2 against the spread this season and 5-0 on the road. Their offense is #3 in the league, posting 423 yards and 35 points per game. They’re on a four-game winning streak and everything seems to be clicking for them now. The Rams are undefeated at home, but are just 2-3 against the spread. They’ve struggled lately, losing to the Saints 45-35 two weeks ago and nearly lost to Seattle last week before posting 16 points in the 4th quarter to win 36-31
Why you may want to fade the trend.
This game was originally scheduled to be played at a neutral site in Mexico City but the NFL has cancelled that and the Rams will now play at home where they are 5-0 this season. The Rams are actually ranked higher than Kansas City on offense, posting 448 yards per game. Their defense is ranked 13, giving up just 355 yards per game compared to Kansas City who is giving up 410. This game is expected to be a shoot-out in prime time and it’s possible that both teams could put up 35 or more points. The public is still hot and heavy for the Chiefs though, making the Rams a good counter-play. They are at home with a better defense and slightly better offense. Covering a 3 point spread is very possible.
HOUSTON TEXANS AT WASHINGTON
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
