Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
|
Road Team:
|
NYJ
|
CHI
|
CLE
|
ATL
|
NO
|
LAC
|
GB
|
MIA
|
ARI
|
PHI
|
PIT
|
WAS
|
OAK
|
TEN
|
IND
|
SF
|
|
|
|
Home Team:
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CIN
|
TB
|
CAR
|
KC
|
DET
|
NE
|
LAR
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
DAL
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
JAC
|
SEA
|
|
|
|
Favorite:
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CLE
|
TB
|
NO
|
KC
|
GB
|
NE
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
PIT
|
DAL
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
IND
|
SF
|
|
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-1.5
|
-1.5
|
-2.5
|
-0.5
|
-13.5
|
-8.5
|
-13.5
|
-15.5
|
-7.5
|
-4.5
|
-2.5
|
-10.5
|
-3.5
|
-4.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
LW
|
Total
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Phil Alexander
|
BUF
|
CHI
|
CLE
|
ATL
|
NO
|
LAC
|
DET
|
MIA
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
DAL
|
OAK
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
SEA
|
11
|
143
|
|
Clayton Gray
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
CIN
|
TB
|
NO
|
KC
|
DET
|
MIA
|
ARI
|
NYG
|
PIT
|
WAS
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
SF
|
10
|
117
|
|
Andy Hicks
|
BUF
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
TB
|
NO
|
KC
|
DET
|
MIA
|
ARI
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
WAS
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
JAC
|
SEA
|
9
|
126
|
|
Devin Knotts
|
BUF
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
CAR
|
LAC
|
DET
|
MIA
|
ARI
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
WAS
|
OAK
|
HOU
|
JAC
|
SEA
|
9
|
127
|
|
James Brimacombe
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
CLE
|
TB
|
NO
|
KC
|
GB
|
NE
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
PIT
|
DAL
|
OAK
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
SF
|
9
|
130
|
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
NYJ
|
CHI
|
CLE
|
TB
|
NO
|
LAC
|
GB
|
MIA
|
ARI
|
NYG
|
PIT
|
DAL
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
SEA
|
8
|
146
|
|
William Grant
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CLE
|
TB
|
CAR
|
KC
|
DET
|
MIA
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
DAL
|
OAK
|
HOU
|
IND
|
SF
|
8
|
134
|
|
Andrew Garda
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CLE
|
ATL
|
CAR
|
KC
|
GB
|
NE
|
ARI
|
PHI
|
PIT
|
DAL
|
OAK
|
HOU
|
IND
|
SF
|
7
|
118
|
|
Dave Larkin
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CLE
|
TB
|
NO
|
LAC
|
GB
|
MIA
|
ARI
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
WAS
|
OAK
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
SEA
|
7
|
129
|
|
Jason Wood
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
CLE
|
TB
|
CAR
|
LAC
|
DET
|
MIA
|
ARI
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
DAL
|
OAK
|
HOU
|
IND
|
SF
|
7
|
129
|
|
Jeff Haseley
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CIN
|
TB
|
CAR
|
LAC
|
DET
|
MIA
|
ARI
|
NYG
|
PIT
|
WAS
|
OAK
|
TEN
|
IND
|
SF
|
7
|
133
|
|
Justin Howe
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CLE
|
TB
|
NO
|
KC
|
GB
|
MIA
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
PIT
|
DAL
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
IND
|
SF
|
7
|
126
|
|
Jeff Pasquino
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CLE
|
TB
|
NO
|
LAC
|
GB
|
MIA
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
WAS
|
OAK
|
TEN
|
IND
|
SF
|
7
|
131
|
|
Keith Roberts
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CLE
|
TB
|
NO
|
KC
|
GB
|
MIA
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
PIT
|
WAS
|
OAK
|
TEN
|
IND
|
SF
|
7
|
135
|
|
Mark Wimer
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CLE
|
ATL
|
NO
|
KC
|
GB
|
NE
|
ARI
|
PHI
|
PIT
|
DAL
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
IND
|
SF
|
7
|
135
|
|
Matt Bitonti
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CLE
|
TB
|
CAR
|
KC
|
DET
|
MIA
|
ARI
|
NYG
|
PIT
|
WAS
|
OAK
|
HOU
|
JAC
|
SF
|
7
|
126
|
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CLE
|
TB
|
CAR
|
KC
|
DET
|
NE
|
LAR
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
DAL
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
JAC
|
SEA
|
5
|
123
|
|
Sean Settle
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CLE
|
ATL
|
NO
|
KC
|
GB
|
NE
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
WAS
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
IND
|
SEA
|
5
|
123
|
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
BUF
|
MIN
|
CIN
|
TB
|
CAR
|
LAC
|
DET
|
MIA
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
PIT
|
WAS
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
IND
|
SEA
|
4
|
134
|
It was a challenge to pick teams correctly this week given some teams resting their starters for the playoffs, other teams packing it in early and still other teams playing for pride. But Phil Alexander managed to navigate all of the landmines and finish with an impressive 11 correct picks for the week. Phil was one of only four staffers to pick the Bears to upset the Vikings, and one of the five who took Atlanta to beat Tampa Bay. Clayton Gray finished second with 10 correct picks, most impressive of which was taking the Jets over Buffalo and the Bengals over the Browns. Well done.
As for the overall standings, Alexander made it interesting, but Andy Hicks was too far out in front to catch and finished as the overall winner with an impressive 146 total correct picks on the season.
|
Staffer
|
Week 17 Correct
|
Year-to-Date Correct
|
Overall Correct %
|
|
Andy Hicks
|
9
|
146
|
57.03%
|
|
Phil Alexander
|
11
|
143
|
55.86%
|
|
Dave Larkin
|
7
|
135
|
52.73%
|
|
Justin Howe
|
7
|
135
|
52.73%
|
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
8
|
134
|
52.34%
|
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
4
|
134
|
52.34%
|
|
Jeff Haseley
|
7
|
133
|
51.95%
|
|
Jeff Pasquino
|
7
|
131
|
51.17%
|
|
Jason Wood
|
7
|
130
|
50.78%
|
|
Keith Roberts
|
7
|
129
|
50.39%
|
|
Mark Wimer
|
7
|
128
|
50.00%
|
|
James Brimacombe
|
9
|
127
|
49.61%
|
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
5
|
126
|
49.22%
|
|
Devin Knotts
|
9
|
126
|
49.22%
|
|
Matt Bitonti
|
7
|
126
|
49.22%
|
|
Andrew Garda
|
7
|
123
|
48.05%
|
|
Sean Settle
|
5
|
123
|
48.05%
|
|
William Grant
|
8
|
118
|
46.09%
|
|
Clayton Gray
|
10
|
117
|
45.70%
|
Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate
Aside from Hicks and Alexander, two other staffers (Larkin and Howe) finished with a record that would have been successful against the Las Vegas spread (over 52.4%). Ruckicki and Miglio were very close, and they were the seven staffers who finished at or above the .500 mark (128-128) for the season. That means only 11 of the 19 staffers had break-even or winning records for the season. It just goes to show just how hard it is to beat the sportsbooks - especially if you pick every game.
Congratulations once again to our weekly and season-long winners on the staff. I hope you enjoyed this contest and that it helped you in some way in 2019. Happy New Year and we will see you again next season!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com