Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 11 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.
OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT
Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2
THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 11 DRAFT:
1.01 Sean Settle
1.02 Keith Roberts
1.03 Dan Hindery
1.04 Justin Howe
1.05 James Brimacombe
1.06 Will Grant
DRAFT RESULTS
DRAFT EVALUATION
sean settle - SLOT 1
Overview - Sean's used a best player available approach to his draft, but he decided to go with his second receiver before his second running back and it might cost him. He was one of two teams that waited til the last round to take a second running back. Luckily, Sean ended up with Joe Mixon as his 2nd running back, but generally, waiting until the last round to select your second running back can be risky. Mixon isn't a sure star performer, but he's better than some of the other backs that were also on the board. As for the strength of Sean's team, he can't go wrong with Todd Gurley, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones and Matt Ryan, especially with the Ryan/Jones combination at home. The question mark for this team is Joe Mixon and how he'll produce against the Ravens on the road. If Mixon can turn in a solid game, even without scoring, this team has a chance to finish on top.
sean ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
After not having the first pick in quite some time, I got the chance to solidify my weakest area of the past few weeks and grab Todd Gurley. There were players with more projected points on the board, but the loss of Cooper Kupp should have the Rams relying on the run even more this week. From there, I did not like any of the running backs and decided to wait. I was able to grab Hopkins and Jones at the turn and put together one of the best WR tandems of the week. This allowed me to stack Jones with Ryan with my next turn as I liked that matchup more than Watson and Hopkins. Jones has finally found the end zone in back to back games and I think he will start to score in bunches. I really like the Mixon pick to close it all out as long as the Bengals remain competitive this week. Mixon had a lot of success against the Saints last week but the score got out of hand and they stopped using him. If they can keep it within a 1 score game, Mixon should go back to being the workhorse he is.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
This week is going to come down to how Matt Ryan plays. It was a huge letdown against the Browns last week and the Falcons are in a must-win situation. The success of Ryan should also play directly into how well Jones does. If this duo can succeed, I am very confident with how everyone else is going to play. Ryan has been known to struggle in big games and has the potential to ruin my week if he does not play well.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
The best value came in the form of Julio Jones. To grab him with my third pick was very surprising this week as he is finally starting to score. The catches and yards have been there all season, but he has now found the end zone in back to back games. I benefitted from picking at the turn and grabbing both Hopkins and Jones, but Julio is poised to continue his hot streak this week.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
I would have been happy to grab Alshon Jeffery this week if I had one more pick. The Eagles are on the brink of losing their season and need a big showing against the Saints this week. Pressure on the outside should be alleviated by Golden Tate running underneath and Jeffery is expected to benefit. While the Saints have played better, their secondary is still susceptible to the big play. A Jeffery and Wentz stack is a great option this week.
keith roberts - SLOT 2
Overview: Keith finished as the top projected team this week according to the Week 11 lineup optimzer projections. He has strengths in every position. He anchored his draft with two top running backs in Melvin Gordon (vs DEN) and James Conner (at JAC). He followed that up with Tyreek Hill in the third round, which is excellent value considering he'll be a focal point for the Chiefs offense against the Rams in what is being billed as the game of the year. Points should be a-plenty this week as the Vegas line is north of 62 points. keith loaded up on players in this game, selecting Jared Goff in round four, and Robert Woods as his last pick. The Goff-Woods stack could prove to be a productive decision. There's a reason why Keith finished as the top-scorer this week - he drafted a good team and will be tough to beat.
keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I am honestly thrilled with my team this week--it may be the most excited I have been about a team all season. This draft went perfectly for me based on my initial plan. At the second pick, it was a tough pick between Melvin Gordon and Saquon Barkley, but I went with the hot hand in Gordon who is seeing plenty of volume to help him consistently produced. I knew going in that I wanted to get one of the top nine running backs available, as there is a big drop-off when scraping near the bottom this week. After seeing eight straight running backs get selected, I was very worried coming into my second round pick--so I felt extremely fortunate to snag James Conner despite his injury concerns. From a game selection perspective, the big one to target was, of course, the Rams-Chiefs showdown--so my goal going in was to load up on players from that contest. Taking Hill then ending with the Goff-Woods stack was incredible in my eyes, as all three of these players could easily be the highest scoring guys at their positions based on the opportunity presented by what should be a shootout.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Melvin Gordon needs to put up another solid outing for me. He has put up very consistent numbers this season, with at least a touchdown in basically every game along with over 100 yards from scrimmage in five straight games. While his matchup on paper may look good against the Broncos, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, that Denver defense has actually been playing much better in recent weeks--allowing no touchdowns and just the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs over their last three games. Gordon has been about as matchup-proof as they come this season though, so I need him to stay the course by putting up another great week from the massive workload he should continue to get.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
My stack of Jared Goff and Robert Woods takes the cake for this question. Goff has a premium matchup against the Chiefs secondary that has shown their vulnerabilities against the pass on multiple occasions this season, while Woods should have plenty of opportunities given the season-ending injury to Cooper Kupp. Whether Woods slides into that slot role or maintains his position on the outside, he is an integral piece of this high-flying Rams offense and should be able to put up massive numbers in what looks to be a very high scoring affair. While Woods may have a lower ceiling than Brandin Cooks, who I also had the option to select, I firmly believe the floor of Woods is much higher while he actually could see some benefits from Kupp’s absence while the role of Cooks should remain unchanged.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
It was astonishing to see Travis Kelce go undrafted considering the situation he finds himself in this week. I have already mentioned my love for that Rams-Chiefs game this week, and Kelce is a top candidate for putting up massive numbers in that one. Kelce is the leader in both targets and red zone looks for the Chiefs receiving corps this season, seeing at least one opportunity in the red zone in all but one game this season. True, he has only found the end zone 40 percent of his games, but the touchdowns will come is this usage trend continues. The Rams have been below average in coverage as of late and have allowed a touchdown to tight ends in three of their last four games. Had I not landed Tyreek Hill in the third round, I honestly was eyeing Kelce with that next pick.
dan hindery - SLOT 3
Overview - Dan is projected to be the 4th highest scorer this week, but his team is also loaded with talented players who are capable of carrying the team on their own. After selecting Saquon Barkley in the first round, Dan quickly jumped the competition to grab Patrick Mahomes II who is projected to be in a high-scoring battle with the Rams. Odell Beckham was his third-round pick, followed by Leonard Fournette, who may have been the best running back still on the board. Fournette was the 10th back off the board and he's projected to finish 11th. That's not too bad considering the other running back options weren't as rosy. He finished the draft with Brandin Cooks, giving him two players in the highly touted Chiefs vs Rams game. Fournette looks to be the determining factor for this team, but if one player doubles or triples his value, it might not matter in the end.
dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
The first round was easy this week in terms of strategy—simply take the top running back available. Saquon Barkley was an easy pick at 1.03. The toughest call of the draft was at 2.04. I strongly considered taking James Conner but decided the drop off from Conner to a back in the fourth or fifth round was small enough that I could grab the top quarterback on the board in Patrick Mahomes II II.
One thing I wanted to make sure to do was to get a couple of top players from the Monday night game, which should be an absolute shootout between the Rams and Chiefs. With Mahomes in the second, I considered grabbing Travis Kelce in the fifth round but decided to just go with the game stack and take Brandin Cooks, who has had back-to-back 100-yard games.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Mahomes is a big key this week. Whenever you take a quarterback in the first two rounds, you are making some sacrifices at other positions and need a big game to justify the pick. Mahomes obviously has week-winning upside and I’m hoping he puts up 30+ points on Monday night to push me up the leaderboard late.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Odell Beckham Jr at 3.03 was a nice value. He has averaged 117 receiving yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game over his last three. He also has a fantastic matchup against an awful Tampa Bay pass defense that ranks second worst overall and third worst in pass defense DVOA.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
Brandin Cooks versus Travis Kelce was almost a coin flip for me at 5.03. I went with Cooks but would have also loved to have Kelce on my roster this week. He is averaging almost 15 DRAFT points per game this season and should be even more heavily involved than normal in a game where Kansas City will have to be aggressive to try to keep pace with the Rams.
justin howe - SLOT 4
Overview - Justin has the lowest projected team, and much of that is due to the Tevin Coleman pick, who projects as the 18th best running back this week. Coleman can still be a surprise, but this team begins and ends with the Saints triple-stack of Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Oh, and Justin also has Antonio Brown. The matchup for Brown against the Jacksonville, on the road isn't favorable, but Brown is essentially matchup-proof. The Saints trio will lift or hinder this team. So the Saints go, Justin's hopes go. New Orleans is home against Philadelphia who will try to compete with an already depleted secondary, even before losing their best corner, Ronald Darby. This could be a field day for Brees and Thomas, while Kamara acts as a second option in the receiving game. This roster is set up nicely for Justin to come out on top, especially if the Saints put up another 35-40 point game.
justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
As always, I wanted to scoop up two studly, high-usage running backs to open my DRAFT. But after grabbing Kamara, I saw the rest of my top tier vanish quickly, and I opted for top wideout Thomas over James Conner. Conner projects better than most people think against a good-not-great Jacksonville run defense, but he's also still in the concussion protocol. If I took him there and he scratched, I'd have to scramble to swap in a shakier running back well below Conner's draft value. Rather, I jumped on the chance to add Thomas, whose efficiency knows no bounds, to stack with Kamara. Another Saints eruption would again go almost entirely through those two, offering upside beyond the famed two-running-backs-first approach.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Ultimately, of course, the Saints will tell the tale of my week. Will they draw into a shootout - or at least a high-passing game - against the Eagles? If so, I'm golden with Brees and his top two targets on board. Kamara and Thomas combined to produce 57.3 DRAFT points last week, while Brees put up 31.4, so the super-stack looks pretty viable here. Both Kamara and Thomas draw elite usage, and both carry attainable big-play and touchdown upside.
Or, conversely, will they cruise to an easy win? They're heavy early favorites, after all, and there's not as much fantasy dynamism when they glide. If that happens, I'll desperately need all of their production to be concentrated on Kamara and Thomas, and I'll need them to be the ones building that early lead with touchdowns. In fact, just to stay afloat, I'd need Kamara's production to come through the air. That'd be a fairly narrow path to victory.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Antonio Brown will scare off plenty of DRAFTers this week thanks to matchup. But while others are bracing for impact, I'm noting a few key points on Brown vs. Jacksonville:
- The Jaguars could again be without top cornerback A.J. Bouye, and they've slipped mightily without him,
- Last season Brown faced Bouye, Jalen Ramsey, and company twice. He posted 10-157 on 19 targets in the first matchup, then 7-132-2 on 11 in the postseason. Brown is virtually always going to Brown.
- If James Conner can't get cleared for the game, Ben Roethlisberger should throw a sheer minimum of 45 passes, regardless of game flow. It'd then be hard not to project a minimum of 10-12 going to Brown, and it's no secret what he can do with that kind of volume. He's already scored 10 times on the year, and he's recorded 74+ yards in 5 of his last 6 games.
Simply put, Brown's combination of dependable volume, explosiveness, and red zone prowess make him too valuable to sit until the 16th pick of a DRAFT. I understand all of the picks ahead of him, but this is about as sexy as consolation prizes get.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
With my last pick, I waffled between Coleman and Dalvin Cook. Coleman was the shrewd choice: his volume is safer, he's similarly dynamic, and Vegas expects his offense to score a solid 25.5 points. But I love Cook's upside. He returned last week to easily lead the Minnesota backfield in snaps and chimed in with a 70-yard run that showed he's healthy and still explosive. If we did 100 versions of this DRAFT, I'd probably opt for Cook 45-49 times.
James brimacombe - SLOT 5
Overview - Like Keith, James started with two running backs to begin his draft. He'll have Christian McCaffrey, who is coming off a three-score game, plus Kareem Hunt in a favorable matchup against the Rams. Los Angeles has allowed 7 touchdowns to backs in the last three games. Hunt should have at least one score, and maybe two. James notched two strong receivers in Adam Thielen (at CHI) and Keenan Allen (vs DEN). He waited until the last round to take a quarterback, but there were plenty of good ones available. Carson Wentz was his pick over Ben Roethlisberger and Mitchell Trubisky (both of which are projected to score more than Wentz). The angle on Wentz is the matchup against New Orleans. James won this draft last week with Wentz as his quarterback, so there is probably some lingering interest from that. The expectation is that Philadelphia is going to be trailing in this game, which means Wentz should have plenty of second-half pass attempts, and probably some garbage time yardage. Is Roethlisberger or Trubisky a better play? Maybe, but James is playing the odds, which favors a productive game from Wentz.
james ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I think this is a good week to target RB/RB with your first two picks especially if you are at the back end of the draft and can grab the two at the turn. I lucked into both Christian McCaffrey and Kareem Hunt. There are eight strong running backs this week with David Johnson and James Conner as the last two in the group so going RB heavy to start this week out makes the most sense to me as the wide receiver position feels like it is all jumbled together with strong plays that you can mix and match in rounds 3 and 4.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Keenan Allen as he is my guy this year in these drafts that I always seem to end up with at the end of drafts. I keep waiting for him to have his big game this season but he just keeps having a bunch of floor games with not that big ceiling we have been used to in the past. He does have a pair of touchdowns on the season and is coming off a 6/57/1 stat line last week against the Raiders so I expect similar results this week against the Broncos.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I think getting Carson Wentz as QB6 in this draft is a steal as the Eagles are fighting for their season every game now and on the road in a game script against the Saints makes a lot of sense. Wentz is coming off six games in a row with at least 278 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns in each of those games. I think 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns is his floor this week and is ceiling could be 400 yards and 3 touchdowns.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
Travis Kelce in a MNF shootout seems like the most logical player that was not picked this week. He is coming off a very average game for his standards with 6/46/0 stat line against Arizona last week but against the Rams he will be much more involved and should have some looks in the red zone.
Will grant - SLOT 6
Overview: for the N'th week in a row, Will has drafted a tight end as his second receiver. There is nothing wrong with this approach, if you can get a top player like Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz. Ertz has been on fire lately and has more fantasy points than Kelce. In fact, he is 8th in total PPR points among receivers and tight ends. he's ahead of Odell Beckham and he has a cushy matchup against New Orleans. Look for Carson Wentz to target him often in this game. Aside from Ertz, Will drafted two running backs to start the draft - Ezekiel Elliott in round one, followed by David Johnson in round two. Elliott had a huge game against Philadelphia last week. Dallas called his number often and he produced. Johnson looked like the David Johnson of 2016 scoring two touchdowns while accumulating over 175 yards of offense. This week he gets the Raiders at home. Johnson is an excellent matchup who may be peaking at the right time. Cam Newton is the quarterback of this team, going against a Lions defense that has allowed multiple touchdown pass games to opposing quarterbacks in 7 of their 9 games. Newton could have a big game as a passer and a rusher. When that happens, he tends to finish in the Top 3. With his last pick, Will selected Emmanuel Sanders (at LAC), who is quietly a Top 12 fantasy receiver this year. Sanders has been a focal point of the Broncos offense, which doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon. Will drafted a strong team that has the ability to finish on top.
will ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
With another week of having a late 1st round pick, I was forced to basically play ‘best available player’ again this week. Lately running backs have been flying off the board hot and heavy, so I targeted grabbing two with my first picks. Nick Chubb ran all over the Falcons last week, so I was happy to get Ezekiel Elliott at the end of the first round. He’s not one of the top projected running backs this week, but I like his upside. Of the next three running backs that came off the board, I like David Johnson the best. The Raiders are terrible, and they are ranked 30th in the league allowing over 140 yards per game on the ground. They gave up 165 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown to Melvin Gordon last week and Johnson should be a great pick this week. While I was hoping to land Patrick Holmes at quarterback, Cam Newton should be able to post some big points on the Lions this week. If Mitchell Trubisky can put 350 yards passing, three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown against the Lions last week, Newton looks like another great play this week.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
By going back to back running backs at the first turn, I knew I was going to miss out on the top receivers. Finding Zach Ertz at the end of round three wasn’t great value, but I think he has a chance to post better numbers than the guys who were available. With my final pick, I was stuck with whatever was left and I took Emanuel Sanders who should have a decent game against a tough division opponent. In the end, I have two of the weakest receivers drafted this week and unless they meet or exceed value, I’m not going to do well.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Given the lousy draft pick, I think nailing Cam Newton at the top of round 4 was decent value. As I mentioned above, Mitchell Trubisky at up the Lions last week, and a guy with Newton’s physical skills is significantly better than Trubisky. I can see Newton having one of his best games this season against Detroit. Most people take a quarterback in the 4th round, so had I not grabbed Newton at this spot, I’d have been stuck with whoever was left with my last pick. Given the crappy draft position, I was happy to land Newton at this spot.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
Last week, Todd Gurley put up 160 yards from scrimmage on the Seahawks. The week before Melvin Gordon put 123 yards from scrimmage on them as well. This week, they face Aaron Jones, who blew up the Dolphins for 170 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns. If I had a pick at 7.01, I would have been very happy to land Jones as a third running back for my team.
PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER
Questions, suggestions and, comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com