Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 7 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.
OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT
Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2
THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 7 DRAFT:
1.01 Justin Howe
1.02 Keith Roberts
1.03 Sean Settle
1.04 Will Grant
1.05 James Brimacombe
1.06 Dan Hindery
DRAFT RESULTS
DRAFT EVALUATION
justin howe- SLOT 1
Overview - Justin was the lucky winner in the #1 slot sweepstakes to draft Todd Gurley who will face the 49ers on the road this week. Gurley is the #1 ranked running back this week according to the Week 7 Lineup Optimizer. On the 2-3 turn, Justin elected to take two receivers instead of his second running back. This decision can often be the determining factor in how successful your lineup is. Justin decided on Tyreek Hill and A.J. Green. Both are capable of putting up good numbers in a matchup against each other that has the potential for a high-scoring game. Justin finished with Sony Michel, who has been solid over the last two games. The matchup against Chicago is not a favorable one, but New England has the ability to score and produce in any game, regardless of opponent. He finished up with Drew Brees who travels to Baltimore. If anyone can buck the trend against the Ravens strong passing game, it's Brees. However, the Saints quarterback is ranked 11th this week and may struggle to keep pace with other top quarterbacks.
justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
As James pointed out, landing Gurley or Barkley (or Elliott, in my eyes) puts you at a hefty advantage this week. There are just such great outlooks for all three in terms of volume, efficiency, touchdown opportunity, etc. So, knowing I'd have one of those no-brainers, I had some flexibility for the rest of my roster. I ultimately chose to simply go deep into my favorite game of the week (CIN-KC) with some of the week's highest wideout upsides. I like the later running backs this week, and I didn't perceive much difference between the best of the 2/3 turn and the 4/5. Being able to land Michel at the latter spot was ideal and tied the whole approach together. I love, love, love this build, in case it's not obvious.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
The CIN-KC game will determine my fate. I left quite a bit of goodness on the table (James White, or my pick of quarterbacks) to snap up this cross-stack, and if it doesn't pan out, I'm cooked. I like my chances - Hill and Green are both dependable volume guys in addition to big splash-play and touchdown threats. But these offenses could go in any direction. Both are in talented, diverse offenses, and either could be schemed out of a big day by the opposing defense.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I was surprised to see quarterbacks go so early this week, especially for James, with whom I've DRAFTed many times since this summer. It's not a bad strategy at all - I've dabbled in it this year to mixed success - just surprising. It made it even sweeter to land the ageless Brees and his ever-present 400-yard ceiling with my very last pick. Brees is so precise and so loaded with dynamic weaponry that he's a matchup-proof play, and I didn't have to spend for him at all. It would be nice to have stacked my quarterback, but I'm definitely not complaining.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
I can't believe Ingram wasn't taken. He's almost as matchup-proof than Alvin Kamara, and he'll be a major beneficiary if the Saints game indeed goes shootout. That wouldn't just be a boon for the passing game, but Ingram as well. He's among the league's premier short-yardage runners, and in a typical Saints barnburner, he doesn't need 20 touches to bring home big value. I don't have many quibbles with McCoy going in the final round, but Ingram is right in that discussion.
KEITH ROBERTS - SLOT 2
Overview: Keith locked up the Giants' two best offensive weapons in Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr in his first two rounds of the draft. the Giants travel to Atlanta on Monday night in a favorable passing matchup that many will be targeting this week. All eyes will be on this game, including Keith's. Keith followed up with James White in round three, who has 23 receptions over the last three games. White has stepped up as the Patriots primary short-yardage receiver and he should be peppered with more passes due to the Bears strong pass rush. Keith selected Jameis Winston in the fourth round as the third quarterback off the board. He's ranked 4th in projections this week. HIs last pick was Robert Woods as the 11th receiver off the board. Woods is ranked 6th this week. Excellent value. Keith has the top projected team with 87.7 points and should be a tough out.
KEITH ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I was fortunate to get the #2 pick for the second straight week after having a good showing from Melvin Gordon and my squad last week. Saquon Barkley was the easy choice here as a solid floor option with plenty of upside. As with any week, I wanted a piece of the high total games, and I ended up with a big chunk of this Falcons-Giants game by picking up Odell Beckham in the second round. I would have normally waited on quarterback until the last round, but seeing that Justin had already chosen two wide receivers, it made sense to grab a quarterback first--this is definitely something to look for late in drafts as choosing a receiver here would have basically been a wasted pick since Justin could have grabbed my guy.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
I have to go off script slightly here to say that it actually will be Eli Manning to make or break my roster. Yes, he is not on my team, but both Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr are. Manning has admittedly looked terrible for most of this season. If Manning can’t get rid of the ball in time to find his two most talented players through the air, my team could certainly tank. Having both Beckham and Barkley will help balance the risk slightly, but it also could limit my upside. Either way, they each have premium matchups as Atlanta has been gashed by pass-catching running backs while they are struggling in the secondary--so big plays could come early and often to either of these guys.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Robert Woods was a slam dunk pick in the last round for me. As of early in the week, I have him ranked as the sixth-highest receiver in this scoring format--so grabbing Woods off the board as the 11th receiver was an absolute steal. Woods has been an integral and consistent part of the high-flying Rams offense, hauling in at least five receptions for over 80 receiving yards in five straight games. Woods has amassed three touchdowns with three games of over 100 receiving yards over that span, including one multi-touchdown game to show his ceiling can be just as high as his floor. He has a great matchup against the 49ers struggling secondary, so as long as Woods can avoid Richard Sherman for a few quality routes, he will be in a great spot to exceed value.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Tyler Boyd is a fringe guy who I wanted to take a shot on here. Boyd has been heavily involved in the Bengals offense and shown he can have a massive ceiling, as we saw last week with his first game with multiple receiving touchdowns. Boyd has crossed 100 yards twice this season and now has four touchdowns. The matchup this week is premium against the Chiefs secondary that has been carved up repeatedly this eason. With this game having the highest point total of the week, a strong argument could certainly be taken to grab Boyd at the end of your drafts this week.
sean settle - SLOT 3
Overview - Sean has the lowest projected score this week, and it's mainly due to tough matchups for good, if not great players. It's possible that the cream will rise to the top, but the projections predict a challenging result. Ezekiel Elliott was the third running back off the board with pick three, however, he's ranked 6th in a difficult matchup against Washington on the road. His second round pick was DeAndre Hopkins at Jacksonville. He eventually took DeShaun Watson in round five to give him a Texans stack at quarterback and receiver. Hopkins is ranked 7th this week, while Watson is 17th. Obviously, if Sean catches lightning in a bottle with multiple scores to Hopkins, this is a moot point, but the odds aren't in his favor. He also drafted Michael Thomas and Tevin Coleman who are bad picks, but the matchups aren't super. Thomas is ranked 10th against Baltimore this week and Coleman is a disappointing 14th.
sean ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
It is rare that you would get the 3rd pick and be disappointed, but that is exactly what happened this week. The top 2 running backs went 1 and 2, and Melvin Gordon is not part of this slate due to the early start time of the game in London. I settled to Elliot and then went on to look at who was the best available. Jacksonville has not had the menacing defense from a year ago and Hopkins 3rd in the league with 657 receiving yards. I was also able to grab Michael Thomas late and wanted to pair him with Drew Brees. Unfortunately, Brees went before my last pick and I settled for the Hopkins/Watson stack. Running back was very thin this week and I rounded out my team with Tevin Coleman who will be taking over for the injured Freeman for the rest of the season. A lot of things did not fall my way this week, but I still ended up with a very solid team.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
There are quite a few things that I need to go right this week but the biggest player I need to step up is Watson. He has had games with elite numbers and then a few shaky games. Last week he played injured and did not look great against the Bills. He will need a total rebound against Jacksonville for me to have a chance this week. If Watson does not play well then, I will not get production out of my top pick in Hopkins either. Watson is the key for this week.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Michael Thomas slipping to the third round is the best value. He typically falls somewhere in the late first to early second but has fallen due to Mark Ingram returning. There was a stretch where he was averaging 10+ targets, 100 yards, and a touchdown per game. The Saints running game should open things up for receivers down the field and that will greatly benefit Thomas.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
If I could take 1 more player, it would be Mark Ingram. The Saints showed he is clearly still the starter and cut into Alvin Kamara’s playing time. Ingram vulture 2 touchdowns around the goal line and even got work on third down and in passing situations. Sean Peyton said the split was going to be just like last season despite everything that Kamara has done this year.
will grant - SLOT 4
Overview - Will waited until the last two picks before selecting his two running backs, T.J. Yeldon and LeSean McCoy, but both could be featured backs on their team's respective offense this week. Yeldon should get the start against Houston, while Leonard Fournette nurses his hamstring injury. McCoy may be the focal point of a weak Bills offense that could see an abundance of touches. Will's other picks are as strong as they come. Julio Jones in a favorable matchup against the Giants and the stack of Matt Ryan that would give him double the points on touchdowns. Can Jones find the end zone finally? If so, Will's team could flourish. His other pick, Adam Thielen, who has six straight 100-yard games. Not too shabby. If the backs can put up decent points, this team has a chance to shock with a Monday night thriller.
will ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Drafting 4th is tough this week. I feel like there’s a big drop off after the top three backs which all went before my first pick. I decided to be flexible with my first two picks and expected to go WR-RB. Julio Jones is going to score eventually and until then, he’s still pulling in 7-8 targets a game. I think he’s one of the top receivers and was happy to land him at 4. When four more running backs came off the board on the turn, I immediately decided that taking a second wide receiver was my best option. Adam Thielen has been doing well and I think he’s another high-volume receiver who has big upside this week. This sorta locked what I did the rest of the draft. Knowing I needed 2 running back and a quarterback and since the #5 and #6 team had 2 running backs each, it made sense to go quarterback in round 3 before they had a chance to grab one. I took Matt Ryan to stack with Julio so I grabbed him first. Patrick Mahomes was my other option and he went right after me. Yeldon and McCoy are ‘Ok’ picks – but about what I expected given how many running backs were off the board by the time I picked again.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
By going back to back receivers right out of the gate, I basically pushed ‘all in’ on the Matt Ryan – Julio Jones stack. If they connect and Julio finally gets into the end zone, I should be good and make up for losing out on the top running backs. If Julio doesn’t get into the end zone, or Ryan has a down week, I’m probably sunk.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Given the way the draft was shaking out, I think Adam Thielen at 2.03 was a nice value. After the top three backs, I think the talent drops off pretty quickly, so to see 4 running backs to after my pivot was a bit of a surprise. I think Kirk Cousins has been a big benefit to Thielen’s game and this week against the Jets give both another opportunity to shine. I like Thielen almost as much as I like Julio this week so to get both was a nice surprise.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
My obvious hole is at running back so if I had another flex pick, I’d probably consider another back. A health Dalvin Cook against a weak New York Jets defense would be an interesting addition but given it’s early in the week, I would probably have gone with Tarik Cohen at home against the Patriots. New England has given up some big games to receiving backs this season, including 185 yards from scrimmage on just 15 touches to Kareem Hunt last week. The Bears need a win to stay on top of the NFC North and I can see Cohen being a big part of their game plan against the visiting Pats this week.
james brimacombe - SLOT 5
Overview - James began his draft from the 5-slot with two running backs, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara - two backs who had 79 and 80 catches respectively last season. Both are capable of putting up big numbers despite the tough road matchups against Philadelphia and Baltimore. The rushing yards may be hard to come by, but the reception totals could carry both backs. James drafted Patrick Mahomes as the second quarterback off the board in a favorable matchup at home against Cincinnati. He added Stefon Diggs and Zach Ertz as his two receivers to conclude the draft. Diggs has not scored since Week 2, but he has 24 receptions in the last three weeks. Zach Ertz has scored in each of the last two games and has 27 receptions in the last three games. James' team is loaded with receiving talent in all facets, plus arguably the best quarterback in the league in a home game scenario. If McCaffrey and Kamara can put up big numbers and get two scores between the two, this team could finish on top at the end of the week.
james ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I haven’t been having a great feel for this week so far and it showed in my draft. I was all over the place in McCaffrey, Kamara, Mahomes, Diggs, and Ertz. Nothing really correlated in the end. I do like the fact that my two running backs are two of the best pass-catching backs in the league and I could have some upside there. I prefer to get one of the top two picks this week and lock in Gurley or Barkley and build from there.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Drafting a quarterback in the third round is not like me in these drafts but with taking two running backs right off the bat and not being in love with any of the wide receivers left on the board it was an easy choice. Mahomes has shown all season that he can break a slate for you and pile up the fantasy points and there is no reason he can’t keep the production going this week against the Bengals in a game that has the highest over/under on the weekend at 58.5
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I think Stefon Diggs is going to go overlooked this week as everyone is putting Adam Thielen rounds ahead of him. It is hard to argue the safety that Thielen gives you each week but it is only a matter of time before Diggs has one of his big breakout games.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
I think Mark Ingram is under projected on DRAFT this week and the fact that you can draft him in the fifth round in these drafts is crazy. I would rather have Ingram than White, Coleman, Yeldon, or McCoy who were all drafted in rounds 3-5. The matchup is obviously a tough one against the Ravens but all that it takes is for the Saints to have a few goal-line carries and Ingram can grab a touchdown.
dan hindery - SLOT 6
Overview: Dan draft three players in the Cincinnati vs Kansas City game that is expected to produce high point totals. He has both running backs in Kareem Hunt and Joe Mixon. Both should be key pieces to their team's offense and could find the end zone twice, if not three times between them. The other player in this game, Travis Kelce, was Dan's third round selection. Kelce has not scored since Week 4, but he is capable of a big game any given week. the Bengals have allowed 12+ receptions to tight ends in two games this year, including 14 last week to Steelers tight ends. Kelce is due for a big game, and he might get it this week. He finished his draft with Mike Evans at home vs Cleveland and Cam Newton on the road against a weak Eagles secondary. If the Chiefs and Bengals game is true to it's potential, as a high scoring affair, this team has a chance to put up strong numbers.
dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
While I’d have preferred to pick first or second, drawing the sixth pick made the strategy pretty straight-forward for me. I feel there is a fairly big drop between the top six or seven running backs and the next tier. Drafting at the 1/2 turn, I knew I was guaranteed to get two of those top-tier backs. I actually thought the choice on the backs would be made for me with only two left. However, when a wide receiver went 1.04, I had three backs I liked and needed to choose two of them. It felt a bit strange passing on Alvin Kamara at 2.01 but with Mark Ingram back and the Saints facing the elite Ravens defense on the road, I felt better about Joe Mixon getting the full workload in a great matchup against Kansas City.
At the 3/4 turn, I would have taken Patrick Mahomes or Matt Ryan but both were gone. I was getting excited about potentially pairing Mahomes with Travis Kelce when Mahomes unexpectedly slid, but he went off the board one pick before mine at 3.05. I didn’t feel especially strongly about any of the remaining quarterback options, so decided to wait until 5.06 for my quarterback and took my two highest-rated pass catchers.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Cam Newton is the key guy for my roster this week. He is capable of the type of 30+ point fantasy games that can carry you to victory. He also has a lower floor than most of the other top quarterbacks. Against a tough Philly run defense, Carolina should be forced to throw a lot and should find some success.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I loved being able to grab Joe Mixon as my RB2 in the second round. He is averaging over 100 rushing yards per game and has scored touchdowns in three of four despite facing a tough running back schedule (three of four ranked top 10 in rushing DVOA). In Week 7, he gets a plum matchup against a Kansas City defense that ranks 32nd in run defense DVOA. The Chiefs also rank in the bottom five in pass defense against the running back position. In an expected shootout, Mixon should feast both on the ground and catching passes out of the backfield.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
Jarvis Landry is the one guy who stands out to me as the undrafted player I would have liked to have rostered late. He hasn’t been productive the last two weeks but is averaging 11 targets per game and should get a ton of opportunities against Tampa Bay, the league’s worst pass defense. The Buccaneers have allowed an opposing wide receiver to top 100 receiving yards in every single week except one (and even then Nelson Agholor had 8-88-1). It looks like a get right spot for Landry and the Browns passing offense.
PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER
Questions, suggestions and, comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com