Cracking FanDuel: Week 13 - Footballguys

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 13 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

• Offensive scoring has been up all season-long and week thirteen has half of the teams expected to score 24+ points on the 26-team main slate. Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Listed by descending expected team points:
  
  
  • Kansas City Chiefs (at OAK) - 34.50 points
  • Los Angeles Rams (at DET) - 32.50 points
  • Green Bay Packers (vs ARI) - 28.75 points
  • Carolina Panthers (at TB) - 28.50 points
  • Seattle Seahawks (vs SF) - 28.00 points
  • New England Patriots (vs MIN) - 27.25 points
  • Houston Texans (vs CLE) - 26.50 points
  • Indianapolis Colts (at JAC) - 25.50 points
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs CAR) - 25.50 points
  • Denver Broncos (at CIN) - 25.00 points
  • Atlanta Falcons (vs BAL) - 25.00 points
  • Tennessee Titans (vs NYJ) - 24.25 points
  • Chicago Bears (at NYG) - 24.00 points

• Spencer Ware is a free square - A video showing Kareem Hunt fighting and kicking a woman has resulted in him being released from the Chiefs. This has catapulted RB Spencer Ware whose price is not reflective of his current situation. At just $5,200, it's hard to imagine any scenario (without him getting injured early) that Ware does not reach value. Oakland has yielded 24.8 fantasy points to running backs this season and Ware is in line for the majority of Chief's carries this weekend. In cash games, Ware should be 100% rostered. In GPPs, his high ownership (likely close to 50%) presents a better case where fading him could make sense.
  
  
• The rest of the Chiefs - On short notice, the Chiefs are now without their play-making running back. But the Vegas line has not reacted. The Chiefs are still an overwhelming favorite by 14 points in a game being played in Oakland. Without Hunt, a strong case can be made for a little extra production from the rest of the stars on the Chiefs (Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce all appear as top projections for me this week). Playing Hill ($8,400) with Ware ($5,200) in cash games is my preferred strategy this week while fading the higher costing Mahomes and Kelce (allowing key salary relief and also protecting against an all eggs in one basket approach in case Kansas City does not meet expectations of a 34.5 implied point total).
  
  
• The Colts love their tight ends - In 11 games, the Colts have targeted their tight ends 125 times for 83 catches, 948 yards, and 18 touchdowns. This week only Eric Ebron and Erik Swoope are healthy enough to play for the Colts. The Jaguars have struggled in recent weeks defending tight ends yielding 6 touchdowns since week 8 to the position. Eric Ebron logged 69 yards and 2 scores against this Jaguars team in week 10 and is available for just $5,600. I will have Ebron in all of my lineups that do not feature a TE stack (Cam/Olsen and Mahomes/Kelce).
  
  
• The Bucs are getting worse on defense (Shootout potential?) - The Buccaneers have been bad all year on defense and this week looks like more of the same. Cornerbacks Carlton Davis and M.J. Stewart are out. CB Brent Grimes is on the wrong side of questionable. Linebacker Lamont David likely returns, but has not played since week 10. RB Christian McCaffrey put up 30.2 fantasy points against this failing Tampa Bay unit in week 9 and comes into the game red hot with 19 targets over the last two games. He is the player I am paying up for this week. I also will have a lot of exposure to Cam Newton ($8,700) and like Tampa Bay's Chris Godwin ($5,400) as a solid punt for salary relief on a team likely forced to throw to keep pace.
  
  
• Packers Defense ($4,400) - In 7 of their 11 games, the Cardinals have allowed double-digit fantasy points to the defenses they were playing. Josh Rosen may be the future, but he is a deer in the headlights for at least a part of every game. In his last five games, Rosen has been sacked 17 times while throwing 9 interceptions. Playing Aaron Jones ($7,600) with the Green Bay defense makes an excellent running back/defensive stack.
  
  

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest cost)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / WR Tyreek Hill - Cost = $17,900
• QB Cam Newton / RB Christian McCaffrey - Cost = $17,500
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / TE Travis Kelce - Cost = $17,300
• QB Andrew Luck / WR T.Y. Hilton - Cost = $15,800
• QB Kirk Cousins / WR Adam Thielen - Cost = $15,700
• QB Jared Goff / WR Robert Woods - Cost = $15,700
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Mike Evans - Cost = $15,400
• QB Kirk Cousins / WR Stefon Diggs - Cost = $15,300
• QB Cam Newton / WR D.J. Moore - Cost = $15,100
• QB Cam Newton / TE Greg Olsen - Cost = $14,700
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / RB Spencer Ware - Cost = $14,700
• QB Cam Newton / WR Curtis Samuel - Cost = $14,200
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / WR Chris Conley - Cost = $14,000
• QB Matthew Stafford / WR Kenny Golladay - Cost = $14,000
• QB Andrew Luck / TE Eric Ebron - Cost = $14,000
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Adam Humphries - Cost = $13,500
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Chris Godwin - Cost = $12,900
• QB Marcus Mariota / WR Corey Davis - Cost = $12,900
• QB Jameis Winston / TE Cameron Brate - Cost = $12,400
• RB Aaron Jones / TD Green Bay - Cost = $12,000
• RB Spencer Ware / TD Kansas City - Cost = $9,500

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Chase Daniel, Marcus Mariota, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr
• RBs: T.J. Yeldon, Matt Breida, Joe Mixon, Dion Lewis
• WRs: T.Y. Hilton, Tyler Lockett, Julian Edelman, Demaryius Thomas
• TEs: George Kittle, Jared Cook, Trey Burton, James O'Shaughnessy
• Def: Titans, Patriots, Giants, Texans

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ CAR Stack (Projected Points = 151.6)

• QB Cam Newton, CAR - $8,700
• RB Aaron Jones, GB - $7,600
• RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR - $8,800
• TE Eric Ebron, IND - $5,600
• WR Tyreek Hill, KC - $8,400
• WR Corey Davis, TEN - $5,900
• WR Chris Godwin, TB - $5,400
• Flex Spencer Ware, KC - $5,200
• TD Green Bay Packers - $4,400

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ TB (Projected Points = 152.0)

• QB Jameis Winston, TB - $7,500
• RB Aaron Jones, GB - $7,600
• RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR - $8,800
• TE Cameron Brate, TB - $4,900
• WR Tyreek Hill, KC - $8,400
• WR Corey Davis, TEN - $5,900
• WR Robert Woods, LAR - $7,300
• Flex Spencer Ware, KC - $5,200
• TD Green Bay Packers - $4,400

Sample Roster 3 ($60K) - Cash (Projected Points = 151.0)

• QB Chase Daniel, CHI - $6,000
• RB Aaron Jones, GB - $7,600
• RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR - $8,800
• TE Eric Ebron, IND - $5,600
• WR Tyreek Hill, KC - $8,400
• WR Corey Davis, TEN - $5,900
• WR Adam Thielen, MIN - $8,100
• Flex Spencer Ware, KC - $5,200
• TD Green Bay Packers - $4,400