You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Trendspotting Austin Hooper — A Counterargument to the data
Ryan Hester's Trendspotting is one of my favorite weekly reads at Footballguys because his data-based intel gives me an opportunity to see if what I'm noticing on tape is happening with a frequency that I believe it is. It's also a great starting point to dig deeper into a matchup because where people make a mistake with any form of football analysis is to take to always take one methodology as gospel without digging deeper.
Yes, we at Footballguys understand that your life isn't spent doing a ton of research on your own; you often have more questions than time allows you to dig for answers. We're here to help you. However, part of that assistance comes from offering a variety of sources of information so if you have lingering questions, you can explore them to arrive at a satisfactory answer.
This is what I do with Hester's Trendspotting. When he shares a conclusion that doesn't match my film observations, it's time to dig deeper. This week's call to remember and use Austin Hooper against the Buccaneers is a good example:
Follow the Targets
In this section, we'll examine how the worst passing defenses in the NFL allow their production.
| RBs | WRs | TEs | ||||||||||
| Team | Tgt% | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt% | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt% | YdsRk | TDs | |||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23.2% | 31 | 2 | 54.2% | 24 | 9 | 22.6% | 32 | 2 | |||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 20.9% | 32 | 3 | 59.0% | 23 | 5 | 20.1% | 31 | 1 | |||
| New Orleans Saints | 19.3% | 14 | 1 | 63.2% | 32 | 10 | 17.5% | 2 | 0 | |||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 13.4% | 2 | 2 | 58.7% | 31 | 8 | 27.9% | 30 | 3 | |||
| Indianapolis Colts | 26.9% | 28 | 1 | 49.2% | 10 | 6 | 23.8% | 28 | 1 | |||
| Cleveland Browns | 18.2% | 18 | 0 | 62.7% | 25 | 5 | 19.1% | 22 | 2 | |||
| Carolina Panthers | 16.5% | 9 | 2 | 64.7% | 28 | 3 | 18.7% | 19 | 2 | |||
| Minnesota Vikings | 17.3% | 23 | 2 | 58.3% | 19 | 6 | 24.4% | 27 | 2 | |||
Commentary
- Tampa Bay allows 103.8 yards per game to tight ends, most in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay allows 27.9% of its passing yardage to tight ends, the third-highest ratio in the NFL.
Action Items
Don't forget about Austin Hooper, as Tampa Bay is yielding huge numbers to tight ends. Atlanta showed a willingness last week to use Hooper if the opposing defense puts more emphasis the wide receivers. Hooper is a low-end TE1 in season-long leagues but just a GPP play in DFS due to his increased price. Uzomah is on the streaming radar in season-long leagues.
Matt's Thoughts: The data, when presented in this fashion, is a compelling argument for Hooper as a productive target on Sunday. However, I write the Falcons' Weekly Game Recaps at Footballguys, so I'm familiar with this team and there's a compelling argument that Mohamed Sanu and the running backs are effectively the Falcons' alternatives to a tight end in passing zones where other teams target the position for big plays.
Hooper is the third-most targeted member of the Atlanta receiving corps with 27 targets. However, that's a deceptive standing because his 12-target affair against the Steelers was 3-6 times the normal volume he's seen this year and since Calvin Ridley became more active in the passing game, Hooper has effectively slipped to No.4 in Atlanta's pecking order.
Hooper earned three red zone targets during the first two weeks of the season but he's only earned one during the past three. The most targeted red zone options in Atlanta have been the running backs and Ridley.
In terms of yardage and usage, Sanu earns a lot of slot time working across the middle or in seams where a tight end might otherwise thrive in the intermediate passing game, earning strong matchups against safeties and linebackers. The Falcons use Hooper as an extension of the ground game in the flats, short routes facing the quarterback, and on the back-side screens set up with play action.
Sanu catches the ball on targets where he's on the move behind much of the defense; Hooper catches targets where he's facing the quarterback with the defense coming downhill for him or in the shallow zones with most of the defense over the top and coming for him.
Think of Sanu as the seam and crossing route "tight end" of this team as a big wide receiver and Hooper is a short-range option who will occasionally earn a red zone look or a deep shot on a play-action throwback designed to trick a defense about once a month, at most.
When we examine Sanu's Game Logs, here's his usage against the Buccaneers as a Falcon:
- 2017, Week 12: 9 targets, 8 catches, and 64 yards.
- 2017, Week 15: 5 targets, 2 catches, and 23 yards.
- 2016, Week 1: 8 targets, 5 catches 80 yards, and 1 touchdown.
- 2016, Week 9: 7 targets, 5 catches, and 74 yards.
Tight Ends vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| NAME | WK | TARG | REC | YD | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Watson | 1 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 13 | 11 | 94 | 0 |
| Josh Perkins | 2 | 6 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 5 | 4 | 112 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 4 | 4 | 2 | 86 | 1 |
| NAME | WK | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 16 | 180 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn Jr Jr | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 68 | 1 |
| Austin Carr | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 88 | 1 |
| Kamar Aiken | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 116 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| James Washington | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 104 | 2 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Josh Bellamy | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
2. Offensive line rankings and Notes (and its impact on Fantasy players)
At least monthly, I'm asked, "Where do I begin if I want to get better at understanding football?" The starting point is focusing on the center and the guards and then fan out to the tackles.
You don't have to become an expert on blocking technique to gain greater clarity about the performance of quarterbacks, running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers.
If you've asked the question above, it is helpful to learn basic running plays that most teams use on Saturdays and Sundays:
- ISO
- Off-Tackle Zone
- Inside Zone
- Outside Zone
- Counter
- Trap
- Power
If you spend about a week or two during lunch diagraming these plays with pen and paper —or even a napkin at lunch — you'll begin to understand which plays allow for a runner to freelance and make alternate choices and which don't.
LA CHARGERS UP 10 SLOTS.
Starting tackles Russell Okung and Joe Barksdale were both limited participants in practice this week and there's a sense around the team both could be available for this week's contest at Cleveland. Sam Tevi did an admirable job stepping up, first at right tackle in place of Barksdale and then on the left side for Okung. Tevi played so decently, he could have made his case to be included the team's long-term plans after Barksdale, which has to be sooner rather than later. This Chargers' offensive line looked like one of the most improved this preseason, but early injuries derailed the improvement process. Assuming they are again healthy and can stay that way, this line grades as a solid mid-tier unit.
Matt's Thoughts: This helps the passing game — especially the vertical game — which could mean more love for the receivers, especially Michael Williams and Keenan Allen in the vertical game and fewer targets per game for the running backs. Don't downgrade the backs too much but their ceilings will be a little lower and the receivers could earn a slight bump.
Also note, #9 WAS, #10 SEA, #14 CLE, and #26 BUF were given scheduled cohesion upgrades. For more on how the rankings work, check the explanation in the Methodology section at the bottom of this year's Training Camp article.
Matt's Thoughts: Let's take these in the order they were mentioned...
- Washington's cohesion grade is good, but injuries to its best backs won't help.
- The Seahawks rise should be noted and acted upon because the general public is still reading a lot of football analysis bad-mouthing Brian Schottenheimer and this line. The ground game is emerging and both Chris Carson and Mike Davis are viable options. Doug Baldwin is getting healthy and Tyler Lockett has performed well. Whenever Russell Wilson earns more time and greater offensive balance, good things will come. These are four players worth buying low or holding.
- Cleveland's cohesion upgrade also has a lot to do with Baker Mayfield making quick decisions that don't place extra stress on the offensive line. The Browns' schedule is favorable for the next 4-5 weeks. I don't know who benefits the most from Mayfield in the passing game, but the conditions are favorable enough that formats with deep rosters should invest in rookie Drew Willie while Rashard Higgins is out. The ground game is probably the best investment — if only the Browns would put Duke Johnson Jr in the slot and use him as a receiver.
- Buffalo's upgrade is a positive but only a small glimmer of sunlight in a bleak and dreary season. LeSean McCoy is a great player deserving a look as a match-up play but that's about it.
KANSAS CITY DOWN SEVEN SLOTS.
Right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif fractured his leg during last week's win over Jacksonville and was placed on injured reserve this week. His injury is estimated to be about an eight week recovery time, and Duvernay-Tardif is eligible for a return later in the season. Jordan Devey took over the right guard spot during the contest and will look to get the start again this week during Sunday Night Football at New England. Devey, a former Patriot, will have familiarity with the defense and the stadium, but the opposing coaching staff will also know his weak points better than almost anyone. Devey is a step down from "the Doctor" and the Chiefs' line also takes a small hit to their previously perfect cohesion. Their new grade lands them at 12, a strong mid-tier unit, but just outside the top-tier.
Matt's Thoughts: This hurts the Chiefs' ability to pass protect against certain twists and blitz looks up the middle but shouldn't be a huge factor for its ability to run the ball. Mahomes may have less time to throw deep without leaving the pocket — but it's a worst-case scenario. Continue to value all Chiefs options you've valued before.
JACKSONVILLE DOWN SEVEN SLOTS.
The Jaguars will have their third starting left tackle of the season, as Josh Wells has already been ruled out of this week's game at Dallas with a groin injury. Josh Walker, who replaced Wells during last week's game at Kansas City, will likely start again this week. Wells had been starting for Cam Robinson who tore his ACL during Week Two. Three other starters missed practice this week, as right tackle Jermey Parnell (knee), left guard Andrew Norwell (foot) and Center Brandon Linder (knee) are all dealing with injuries. The model assumes these three, as well asrightguardA.J.Cann will be in the lineup this week, but overall this line has seen more than its fair share of injuries. This is a still a mid-tier line, but their depth is being tested.
Matt's Thoughts: Blake Bortles wasn't at the top, or even in the middle, of desirable fantasy quarterbacks. These issues hurt the passing game more than the ground game. Keelan Cole, D.J. Chark, and Donte Moncreif'sverticalpotentialtakes a bit of a hit. Dede Westbrook and Cole's use in the middle of the field, as well as T.J. Yeldon's check-down game, are all still viable. Cole might be droppable if things get worse with this line.
TENNESSEE DOWN 15 SLOTS.
Left tackle Taylor Lewan was forced from the contest at Buffalo with a foot injury. Lewan is officially listed as questionable and usually, his tough guy reputation would keep him in the model. However, the language Lewan used after the game was suspicious, specifically the 'pop' noise he heard, coupled with the team's order of an MRI, and the fact this is the same foot which has bothered him for several weeks, all could point to a multi-week recovery. Rookie Taylor Marz took Lewan's place in the game but the team should have Dennis Kelly available this week if Lewan can't go. Kelly has apparently recovered from the mysterious illness which hospitalized him and caused him to lose over 20 pounds. The Titans' line is a top-tier group with Lewan in the lineup but average without him.
Matt's Thoughts: The Titans offense remains inconsistent and these developments don't help. If Lewan misses time, the Titans offense is reduced to a match-up fantasy crew that you want to trot out with confidence against the likes of Dallas, Indianapolis, and the Giants during the second half of the year. If the injury isn't a significant issue (and it looks like it could be, so monitor it), Corey Davis could offer greater consistency as a second or third option on a weekly basis.
OAKLAND DOWN 10 SLOTS.
Left guard Kelechi Osemele missed last week's game with a knee injury and has not practiced this week prior to the team's upcoming contest in London. Judging from coaching comments, Osemele may need another week to recover, meaning it will likely be Jon Feliciano who again is called to make the start. Missing Osemele and right tackle Donald Penn, the new-look offensive line had difficulty protecting quarterback Derek Carr during last week's game against the Chargers. Injuries have taken a toll this season on a usually dominant line. Assuming their all-pro guard is not available, the Raiders' offensive line grades as a low-tier option.
Matt's Thoughts: The ground game should be fine long-term but the passing game could be further reduced to quick-hitters to Jared Cook and Jordy Nelson. Amari Cooper concerns me whereas Martavis Bryant might be a better quick-hitting option who can also get deep targets on shorter drops.
DENVER DOWN 11 SLOTS.
Right tackle Jared Veldheer missed last week's game at New York with a bone bruise and coaches are saying he will likely miss this week's home contest against the LA Rams. Billy Turner got the start in Veldheer's place and gave up two sacks. Right guard Connor McGovern also had an off day, allowing 6 pressures and a sack. Left tackle Garret Bolles was forced from last week's game late with
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