Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 14 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.
OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT
Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2
THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 14 DRAFT:
1.01 Justin Howe
1.02 Keith Roberts
1.03 James Brimacombe
1.04 Dan Hindery
1.05 Devin Knotts
1.06 Sean Settle
DRAFT RESULTS
DRAFT EVALUATION
justin howe - SLOT 1
Overview - Justin is rolling the dice with the Detroit stack of Matthew Stafford and Marvin Jones. Jones is not the concern, but Stafford and his injured hand is worrisome. If Stafford injury becomes more of a risk, Justin could swap him out with another quarterback not drafted. Such quarterbacks include Jared Goff, Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson. I love the selection of Travis Kelce, especially with a strong matchup against Oakland. This has the feel of a two-touchdown game from Kelce in what looks like a high scoring effort from Kansas City. The game script for this game looks to be back and forth with few defensive stops on both sides of the ball. An Alex Smith/Kelce stack would be a welcomed strategy for those who have yet to draft. You may be able to get Kelce at a discount, because more teams will be looking for wide receivers to fill their receiver roster regulations. The aforementioned players along with LeVeon Bell and Carlos Hyde give this team a fighting chance at reaching a Top 2 position.
justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
This week I returned to the "two immediate bell cow RB" approach. Most of the decision was made for me by my pick placement - LeVeon Bell is the hands-down top pick this week, as he is most weeks - and on the 2/3 turn, it just made sense to pair him with another three-down backfield dominator. I love the volume outlook; even at that 12th pick, I'm still sifting through RBs with real 15-touch floors and 30-touch ceilings, next to WRs that may or may not boast a prominent role in the week's game plan. Landing that kind of stability allows me to take a slightly more ceiling-oriented, GPP-esque approach to the rest of the draft, which landed me a few upside plays I love. I was especially thrilled to pull the Lions stack over the final two rounds.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
The Lions stack will be what tells the tale here. The volume outlook is iffy - the Lions are slowing their pace of late, and Stafford holds a realistic floor of 25 attempts and 175 yards. And the reports on his hand injury are a little worrisome to me. Still, I look at this stack as a make-or-break GPP stab, which is pretty much my best bet in Rounds 4 and 5 against a handful of other Footballguys. There's a major ceiling for volume, too - few teams loathe running the ball as much as the Lions do - which bodes well for one of the league's most efficient passing attacks. And the matchup is fantastic, as the Buccaneers can't cover anyone. Provided the game stays moderately close, I expect Stafford to throw 32-35 passes, and Jones to find openings downfield all day against one of the league's worst secondaries.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Travis Kelce is routinely taking the volume of an upper-tier WR2 (45 targets over his last 5 games), and his matchup pushes him over the edge in my eyes. I'd be shocked to see Kansas City land below 24-27 points this week, with the upside for much more in such a sexy matchup, and Kelce is a primary engine in that attack. A day of 3-4 Kansas City touchdowns and 250+ Alex Smith passing yards should yield Kelce a bare minimum of 70-80 yards and a score. Ultimately, I prefer that kind of value over the four other WR/TE options I was considering there. Teammate Tyreek Hill is exceptionally volatile and could easily go 2 for 20 this week.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I'd love to take on Golden Tate and put forth a Lions superstack; if Stafford's hand is solid, there's definitely a 325-yard, 3-touchdown ceiling in this matchup. But I'd be even more intrigued by Alshon Jeffery, who's looked good of late and could take on a little more responsibility if Zach Ertz sits as expected. Jeffery's volatile - he only drew 4 targets when Ertz missed Week 5 - but Vegas expects this game to score semi-wildly, so a touchdown seems to be in the cards.
keith roberts - SLOT 2
Overview: Keith has good balance with a few key players projected to be in high scoring games. Alex Smith in round 4 is excellent value for what should be a back and forth battle with Oakland. Todd Gurley is always a strong play and figures to be heavily involved in the Rams offensive attack against Philadelphia. I love the upside of Josh Gordon, especially in round five. Last week Gordon had a tough matchup against Casey Hayward and the Chargers, and he still put up strong numbers on 11 targets. This week will be more favorable against Green Bay and I would not be surprised to see an improvement over last week's impressive season debut numbers. A.J. Green was clearly Andy Dalton's top target and most productive option last week. He should once again be the centerpiece of the Bengals attack, especially if Joe Mixon is out. Keith has a talented team with good matchups and excellent value.
keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I went with the traditional approach of taking running backs early this week as I picked Todd Gurley with the number two selection. I knew coming in that I wanted a piece of the two highest over/under games of the week in the Eagles / Rams and Raiders / Chiefs. I snagged AJ Green based on pure upside potential as the Bengals are funneling that offense through him, especially after the 16-target game he had last Sunday. I was happy to get Alex Smith as my quarterback in a great matchup against Oakland, and Josh Gordon is my lottery ticket to victory this week as the last receiver off the board.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
While Josh Gordon may not make or break my team based on value as the last pick, I think he will be key to set me up for a victory. With just one game under his belt within the past three seasons, we really are still trying to understand what to expect out of Gordon. He is a high upside guy with tons of talent, but he also has a very unrefined quarterback in Deshone Kizer chucking it up to basically hope Gordon can make a play. Making those plays should be a bit easier this week though as Gordon draws one of the best matchups of the week against a very vulnerable Green Bay secondary. The Packers have given up six 100+ yard games and 13 touchdowns to wide receivers this season, good for the fourth-most fantasy points allowed to the position. While they limited Mike Evans to a stinker of a game last week, the Packers have shown to be very vulnerable throughout the year and Josh Gordon racked up a team-leading 11 targets with one red zone look last week. Gordon’s 11 targets were more than the Browns other two receivers combined, so all signs point to that offense running through him again this week.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I am happy with the value I received on Samaje Perine as the eighth running back off the board. This may be viewed as a questionable call after his game last week, but Perine’s lack of usage was largely attributed to that game script as the Redskins fell behind big and never really could close the gap. Perine had 23 and 24 carries the game prior and has been consistently involved in the passing game as he has looked like he can be an every-down back if needed. The Chargers have a run-funnel defense as their cornerbacks are playing very well while their defensive line is struggling, leading to their Chargers’ 28th ranked rushing defense versus a 7th ranked passing defense using DVOA. A running back in this good of a matchup and the 25+ touch upside of Perine is a great pick for where I selected him.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Golden Tate is who I had my eye on had someone else punched the Josh Gordon lottery ticket. Tate is in almost as good of a matchup as Gordon as he looks to draw coverage from both Vernon Hargreaves and Robert McClain out of the slot. Overall, the Buccaneers passing defense has been atrocious as they rank 31st using DVOA and have given up the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Their slot cornerback has been McClain for most of the season, who is giving up one of the highest catch rates among cornerbacks this season at close to 80%. There is a chance, however, that Hargreaves actually slides into the slot this week though. Hargreaves has not been much better than McClain as he has also given up a ton of fantasy points and a well-above-average catch rate. Tate hauled in eight catches last week, his second-highest mark of the season, and he may be a go-to option for a banged up Matt Stafford.
james brimacombe - SLOT 3
Overview - I'm not thrilled with Jay Ajayi this week in a tough road battle against the Rams, but I can also see him popping in a short-ranged score in a game that could see upwards of 50 total points. The Derek Carr and Michael Crabtree stack combined with Tyreek Hill has promise in what might be the top scoring game of the week. Amari Cooper is still dealing with an ankle injury and may not play, plus the Chiefs top corner (Marcus Peters) is suspended by the team for this week's game. A perfect storm of offense is the forecast for Oakland at Kansas City and James has three big players in this battle. Melvin Gordon was James' first pick and I haven't even mentioned him. That's always a good sign when the cornerstone of your team isn't a first round pick. In my opinion, Ajayi is the determining factor in my opinion. If he can muster a score and receive decent yardage, this team will be near the top at the end of the week.
james ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
To be honest I was on the go this week during the draft and that is also the beauty of this format on DRAFT you can draft no matter where you are as long as you have your phone with you. My goal this week was to target the Raiders and Chiefs game and that is exactly what I did with a Derek Carr and Michael Crabtree stack with Tyreek Hill on the other side. Hoping for both teams to score over 25 points and hoping I have the right guys in this spot.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
My second running back is always the position that makes or breaks me each week and this week my lucky player is Jay Ajayi against the Rams on the road. Ajayi was my last pick and is one that isn’t seeing a high volume of touches yet for the Eagles. Last week against Seattle he had 12 total touches so I am hoping for a few more this week and obviously hoping for that rushing touchdown.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I like Tyreek Hill in the third round as he is a player that can change a game in a single play and at the same time that single play can pay off his value. He also is a player that if the game gets into a high scoring game will likely be one of the guys that is producing with some big plays. Last time out against the Raiders, Hill posted a 6/125/1 statline.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
It seems crazy to not see Mike Evans drafted in this format. The struggles are real for Evans and the matchup is tough this week against the Lions but Evans is a player that you have to consider every week based on his volume of targets a game.
Dan hindery - SLOT 4
Overview - LeSean McCoy is always a strong pick and the matchup is a favorable one against the Colts. The only concern I have is the Bills offensive chances and drive sustainability if Tyrod Taylor (knee) is out. In that scenario, Nate Peterman becomes the team's quarterback which likely will limit the Bills ability to make key plays. McCoy is capable of being the top contributor on offense and for that reason alone, he has value regardless of the quarterback situation. If Peterman gets the nod, don't expect the point total to be high, which limits McCoy's expected value. I wonder if not taking Antonio Brown at pick 1.05 will come back to haunt Dan? This team may hinge on the success of Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen. There may not be a better quarterback/wide receiver stack than the Chargers duo. Allen has been hot lately and the Washington defense has taken a few steps back. Brandin Cooks and Alex Collins will need to pull their weight for Dan to finish on top, but that may not be a tall order. Cooks has been a key piece to the Patriots offense lately. One concern is the possible return of Chris Hogan, which could decrease Cooks value. Collins has four touchdowns in the last three games. He's not one to be heavily involved as a receiver, which means his value hinges on the ability to get into the end zone.
dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I was really hoping Melvin Gordon would make it to me at 1.04. When he didn’t, it was a tough choice between LeSean McCoy and Antonio Brown. While I think Brown outscores McCoy this week, the drop off is steeper at running back than wide receiver this week, so I went with McCoy to at least lock in one of the top five running backs. The rest of the draft went better than I could have hoped. Keenan Allen falling to the second round and Brandin Cooks being there in the third round give me a nice receiving corps and Philip Rivers is one of my favorite quarterbacks of the week.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Brandin Cooks will be a key guy for me. Cooks has a solid floor, especially when the Patriots do not have their full complement of weapons. He will catch some shorter passes and rack up some yardage. However, Cooks is almost always a slight fantasy disappointment if he doesn’t catch a long touchdown pass. Cooks should get a couple of deep ball from Brady against the Dolphins on Monday night and if he can take one to the house, it could push me over the top.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I always like to stack my quarterback with his top target as long as it doesn’t require reaching. After drafting Keenan Allen early, I strongly considered Philip Rivers at 4.03 and was thrilled when he made it back around to me at 5.04. For me, Rivers is a top-3 quarterback this week. He has been playing great, with 1,029 yards and 6 touchdowns over the last three games. With most of the other top quarterbacks facing difficult matchups, Rivers’ solid matchup at home against Washington increases his value even more this week.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Mike Evans’ awful fantasy line (2-33-0) last week cost me a lot of money, so I do not fault anyone for being hesitant to pick him this week. That being said, Evans is an extremely talented player who is averaging 9.3 targets per game. He has a solid matchup at home against a Detroit Lions defense that just game up 40+ points to the Ravens. Evans has enough proven upside to justify a pick in the later rounds of a 6-Team draft this week despite his recent struggles.
devin knotts - SLOT 5
Overview - I applaud Devin's first three picks and he did a decent job of filling in his running back needs with picks four and five. Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and Tom Brady are three excellent, high value selections in the first three rounds. While others focused on running back, Devin zigged when others zagged which gave him the edge at receiver and quarterback. I don't love the Kenyan Drake pick. I wonder if Marshawn Lynch or Rex Burkhead would've been a better pick there? I'm on board with Jamaal Williams in the last round, but I wonder if Drake is going to put up enough production for Devin to finish in the Top 2. Based on the other picks, he may not need to.
devin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My strategy this week drafting in the five hole was basically to get the top two wide receivers on the board. Outside of Bell, there is not a running back that I love this week, so I decided to deviate and basically go out and try to get the top two wide receivers on my board this week. Once I realized that all of the running backs were essentially the same when it got back to me, I decided to take the top quarterback thus giving me my two favorite receivers and my favorite quarterback this week.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Jamaal Williams will likely make or break me. Cleveland’s run defense has been starting to crack over the last three games as they are allowing 4.3 yards per carry compared to the 2.9 yards per carry that they were averaging about a month ago. Jamaal should continue to see the workload even if Aaron Jones is healthy, as the Packers are moving the ball and essentially are in a must-win this week against the Browns so I expect Jamaal to have a heavy workload this week.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Antonio Brown at 1.05 was an absolute gift. I can provide a downside argument against every running back that was taken from 1.02-1.04, and to get Brown at 1.05 with his upside is tremendous. Brown has 6 touchdowns in his last three games and has gone for 100 or more yards in each of those games. For me he is the clear-cut 1.02 pick this week, so to get him at 1.05 was a gift.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
There were a number of picks I would have love to have this week, the first is Mike Evans. I understand that the Darius Slay matchup is not a great one, but over their last five games the Lions have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, for a player of Mike Evans talent not to be taken is just a clear mistake. The other player I felt was a mistake not taking was Marshawn Lynch, Lynch is going up against a Chiefs team in which he will likely once again be highly-utilized and the reality is while the matchup isn’t a no-brainer Lynch still has 20 carry upside and the Chiefs over their last four games have given up the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
sean settle - SLOT 6
Overview - For being in the six-slot and having to pick after Antonio Brown was selected, Sean did an awesome job of finding value and picking his positions in good spots. Leonard Fournette had a few rough games after injuring his ankle, but he appears to be back on track. Kareem Hunt has not returned to his early season form, but this week's game against Oakland may be the medicine he needs to get back some of that mojo. Sean could've done worse than Larry Fitzgerald and Adam Thielen at receiver. I'm on board with those selections and applaud the picks at that area of the draft. He finished his draft with Carson Wentz which is difficult to dislike. Wentz and the Eagles will be looking to get come away from their tough two-game road stretch with at least one win. Vegas projects a high scoring game (49.5 points) against the Rams and Wentz should be a big contributor to that point total. This team has promise if all the pieces come together. Sean has finished on top from the six spot in the past. I wouldn't put it past him to do it again with this lineup.
sean ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Drafting in the last position it was all about the wait and see approach. Devin was the outlier in the first two rounds going WR/WR, but I still saw the value in getting my running backs early. Fournette has a tough matchup against the Seahawks but he was the best back available and while Hunt has struggled he is still 3rd in the league in rushing yards. I would stack this pair up over anyone else this week. After that I was still looking for a QB/WR stack but lost out on my number 1 in Cooks/Brady the two picks before me. I targeted 2 high target wide receivers in Fitzgerald and Thielen and paired them with Carson Wentz who has been lights out all season. This draft was all about being flexible and rebounding to the changing draft board.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
This week will come down to Hunt as he is the true wild card. Fournette has a tough matchup this week and will play a role in making or breaking the week but Hunt brings the high upside that could really push the week over the top. I will need on of Hunt’s big weeks this week if I want to compete with the other teams out there.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
The best value has to come from Carson Wentz. Just like last week, I was able to get my quarterback in the last round and while I do not have a WR pairing this week, he still carries the best value. Pair that with the Eagles looking to rebound from their second loss from the season and Wentz is poised for a big week.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
If I could take one other player from the board this week it would be Alshon Jeffrey. This has more to do with having Wentz as my quarterback than anything else. If Zach Ertz was healthy I would go that route, but you cannot beat having an elite quarterbacks number one option in their offense.
PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER
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