Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 11 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.
OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT
Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2
THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 8 DRAFT:
1.01 James Brimacombe
1.02 Keith Roberts
1.03 Justin Howe
1.04 Dan Hindery
1.05 Devin Knotts
1.06 Sean Settle
DRAFT RESULTS
DRAFT EVALUATION
james brimacombe - SLOT 1
Overview - James elected to go with Kareem Hunt with the first overall pick this week. Hunt will play the Giants on the road, who have been a feast for opposing offenses lately. Hunt and the Chiefs also have the benefit of coming off a bye, where their coach Andy Reid is 16-2 in his career. In addition to selecting the first running back off the board, James was able to select the second and third receivers, thanks to 10 straight running back picks to begin the draft. He selected Mike Evans and Julio Jones at the 2-3 turn. Before last week's suspension, Evans had two consecutive lackluster games against Carolina and New Orleans. Miami's secondary and defense as a whole is much different than those two, but he's also dealing with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback and the Bucs poor offensive output, scoring 3, 10 and 15 points in the last three games. I'm a bit leery on Evans, but he's more than capable of turning his production around. Julio Jones should take advantage of a depleted Seattle secondary and may wind up being an explosive player this week. I love the value of Carson Wentz at pick 4.06 and Lamar Miller at 5.01. Wentz is one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year and despite the road game at Dallas, he should once again put up strong numbers this week. Miller is a decent RB2 with a good matchup against Arizona, at home. This team has the potential to be competitive with plenty of firepower at every position.
james ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Getting the first overall pick it is a lock and load from the beginning to take a running back and going with Kareem Hunt off a bye week against the Giants seems like the way to go this week. At the 2.06/3.01 turn I wanted to take my top two projected wide receivers in Mike Evans and Julio Jones. The rest of the draft I would just see who falls to me and knew I had to wait at running back as 10 straight went in the first round.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
I think my make or break player this week is Mike Evans coming off a suspension with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing him the ball. The Dolphins are coming off a game where they allowed Devin Funchess a 5/92/2 stat line. Evans only has one game on the season where he saw less than 8 targets, and this week seems like one of those weeks where he will see 10+ targets and find his first 100+ yard game of the season.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Carson Wentz coming off a bye week in a divisional game against the Cowboys seems like great value in the fourth round as it locks me in with a top quarterback and will give me an advantage over the other five teams. Wentz has 17 touchdown passes over the past five weeks and this week everything is in line for him to have another multi-touchdown game. The Cowboys pass defense has given up back to back 2 touchdown games to Matt Ryan and Alex Smith, so it is hard for me to see Wentz not having a big game this weekend.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
No one drafted DeAndre Hopkins this week which is surprising as even with Deshaun Watson out for the year, he continues to see a heavy dose of targets. The last two games with Tom Savage under center, Hopkins has 16 and 14 targets, for statlines of 6/86/1 and 7/111/0. Those numbers are crazy for a wide receiver right now and ignoring Hopkins based on his quarterback could be a major mistake.
keith roberts - SLOT 2
Overview: The Tom Brady/Brandin Cooks stack stands out when examining Keith's lineup. My concern with this decision is the inconsistency of Cooks on a weekly basis. He has scored three touchdowns this year, but in only two games. In seven other games, he failed to reach the end zone. New England has several weapons on offense, and I wonder if Brady/Gronkowski would've been a better stack/choice here? LeSean McCoy, Tyreek Hill and Marshawn Lynch make up the remainder of Keith's picks. I like McCoy, but the introduction of Nate Peterman at quarterback could be a detriment to the offense, which would have a ripple-effect on McCoy's production. The sparse road crowd in Los Angeles won't be that much of a factor, but it's still a road debut, which can't be promising, however you look at it. Tyreek Hill at the Giants could be a great pick, but there is some concern over his consistency as well. DeAndre Hopkins (not picked) may have been a better option. Skipping Hopkins by the entire draft may come back to haunt some people.
keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
As is usual, I wanted to grab a running back early this week. This was easy with the second overall pick, enabling me to take LeSean McCoy as my top back. The massive running backs run then ensued as 10 backs dropped off the board with the first 10 picks. When it rolled back to me in the second round, I had free range of quarterbacks and wide receivers and elected to take Brandin Cooks over the likes of Mike Evans and Julio Jones. I knew going in that I wanted Tom Brady as my quarterback, but I took the risk by choosing Cooks first knowing that it would be more likely for James to choose running backs over a quarterback since this group usually waits on quarterbacks. I rounded out by picking an upside receiver in Tyreek Hill followed by another piece of this Patriots-Raiders game in Marshawn Lynch.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Brandin Cooks will be my make or break pick this week. I trust that Tom Brady will put up points in this matchup against the 32nd ranked Raiders defense (per DVOA), but he could easily spread the ball around to his running backs or tight ends as we have seen on multiple occasions this week. I took a chance on Cooks here due mainly to his matchup, as Cooks should see most snaps against Raiders cornerback Dexter McDonald. McDonald is allowing over an 80% catch rate this season, one of the highest in the league. Cooks has performed well in good matchups throughout this season, so I am counting on him grabbing a touchdown to help this stack succeed.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I like the value I received from Marshawn Lynch. While Lynch has definitely underwhelmed this season, he is coming off his best fantasy game of the year as he racked up two touchdowns and 57 rushing yards with a couple receptions as well. Lynch has averaged 4.1 and 4.8 yards per carry in his last two full games, so on a per rush basis, he has looked pretty good. He is the primary running back in a game with the highest projected point total of the week. While the Raiders may be playing from behind, New England has the 29th ranked rushing defense using DVOA and have allowed over 100 rushing yards to opposing running backs in back to back games. I will take this matchup from the last running back off the draft board all day long.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
DeAndre Hopkins would be my main choice here. As James called out, Hopkins has had 30 targets in his last two games—that is a massive amount of volume. He is averaging nearly 12 targets per game on the season, easily leading all players in the league. While last week was the first game in over a month that he hasn’t found the end zone, he is definitely the most likely Texans receiver to score based on how much his quarterback is force-feeding him the ball. His tough matchup with Patrick Peterson kept him from being drafted, but if he can haul in even half of what should be at least a dozen targets, Hopkins should have a good making fantasy owners happy.
justin howe - SLOT 3
Overview - Justin's team features a Drew Brees stack with Michael Thomas. On paper this looks great, especially for a home game, but there is a Josh Norman factor in play that shouldn't be ignored. Todd Gurley and Jay Ajayi have tough road matchups at Minnesota and at Dallas respectively. History says running backs on average perform better at home than on the road, so I usually try to target a home running back if possible. Justin has two road backs and that could come back to bite him. I love the fourth round selection of Adam Thielen. I wouldn't be surprised to see Thielen outscoring every non-quarterback on Justin's team. To get him in the fourth round is great value. Thielen, and the Vikings in general, perform better at home than on the road and this matchup plays into that perfectly. Both Gurley and Ajayi are capable of scoring a touchdown this week and possibly two, but I would like their chances a lot more if they were playing at home.
justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
As always, my goal was to walk away from my first two picks with two running backs, then add a high-ceiling passing game stack shortly thereafter. I like opening RB-RB and then stacking for many reasons: it brings me tons of floor to land two lead backs off the bat, it stretches my ceiling as I'm putting together a desirable stack, and it maximizes my final pick optimally. Someone has to be taken last, after all, and there's almost always more value at WR/TE2 in that spot than anywhere else. The running backs available are rarely floor-oriented at all, and the week's top 4-5 QBs have already been picked through at that point. (Note: I only took my WR2 over my QB this week because of how the draft unfolded; with only one team still needing a QB in Round 4, I knew I could wait for one of Tom Brady/Carson Wentz/Brees.) The routine panned out for me this week - even if I had to force the issue a bit with Jay Ajayi - and I came away with the exact construction I'd wanted.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Easy answer: Ajayi. I opted to include him on the tail end of the opening RB run, and I'm quite satisfied with my decision. He's a gifted runner - check his productivity and 2015 measurables if you're not convinced of his upside - and his situation is suddenly quite appealing. Of course, in a DRAFT setting, this could absolutely blow up in my face. There's a real probability of a 9-carry, 35-yard, 0-touchdown, 0-reception game that would all but doom my week (especially against this dais). But the also real probability of Ajayi emerging as the lead back is huge - he looked fantastic in his debut against Denver - and he also carries the chance of seeing middling volume but producing extraordinary efficiency. Behind this line, and with playmakers all over the field to keep defenses honest, Ajayi could turn 10-12 touches into 80+ yards and a touchdown. I feel like there's value here, covering all of the positive bases Ajayi could touch.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I don't have any quibble with the WRs my league-mates took over Adam Thielen, but I'm shocked I drew this kind of value at WR2. Here's a guy who's drawn 10-13 targets in 4 straight games, Stefon Diggs' return notwithstanding. There's no concern over a QB transition, as Case Keenum has been announced the Week 11 starter. He'll run most of his routes against slot cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman, who's been strong numbers-wise on the year, but has rarely seen a slot receiver like this. Thielen boasts 6 inches and 35 pounds on Robey-Coleman, after all, and has become the week-to-week engine of his passing game.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Kudos to Sean for keeping A.J. Green from slipping out of the draft; he's an intriguing play against a Denver secondary that's currently at its most beatable. I'm truly surprised the Raiders WRs weren't targeted at all, and if we had an additional round, I'd snap one up (preferably Michael Crabtree). The Patriots secondary looked back to its turnstile ways last week, allowing Brock Osweiler to dissect them for two quarters before collapsing in Osweilerian fashion. Emmanuel Sanders topped 100 yards in the first half, and given the Raiders' passing game talent and that game's Vegas projection, I think both starters make for fine Week 11 plays.
Dan hindery - SLOT 4
Overview - I love what Dan did in the draft and I even stated he'd win this week after he made his third selection. Anything can happen any given week, such as injuries to a key player, multiple turnovers that rock the game script, weather, etc, but if all goes as planned, Dan's team will be the one to beat. His stack of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to begin the draft makes sense. Both players have been prominent players on the Saints explosive offense and if anything is going to be a constant it will be the ground game, as opposed to the passing game. New Ortleans has thrived with their passing game in years past, because they did not have a dominant defense. The end result was continuous passing to keep pace with their opponent. This year, it's different. The defense is solid and the running game has thrived. I can't envision a game script that would result in Ingram and Kamara getting snubbed. The decision to grab Travis Kelce in the third round and Rob Gronkowski in round four, followed by Alex Smith in the last round is genius. Kelce will face the Giants and their 10-game streak of allowing a touchdown to a tight end and if he scores, Dan will get the double dip with Alex Smith. Gronkowski against Oakland is a favorable matchup. I can see him being utilized often in this game. Dan has the team to beat in my opinion. I completely endorse anyone who attempts to duplicate this draft.
dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I knew I wanted to get a pair of running backs early and was planning to start RB-RB from the 1.04 spot. I wasn’t comfortable waiting for mediocre late-round options like Marshawn Lynch and Lamar Miller. Especially since none of the wide receivers stands out as a slam dunk option this week and there is decent depth at wide receiver/tight end.
I wasn’t planning on pairing Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, instead just taking my highest-ranked player available with both picks. Theoretically, this pairing limits my lineup’s upside a little bit. However, we just saw the duo combine for 53.4 Draft points in Week 10.
In 6-Team contests, I prefer to stack a Quarterback and pass catcher as long as I don’t have to reach to do so. The board fell perfectly for me to get a top stack. Travis Kelce was my top player available at 3.04 and I was surprised that my #3 ranked quarterback, Alex Smith, made it back around to me at 5.04.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
I’ll cheat a little bit and say that the make or break factor will be whether the New Orleans Saints score on the ground or through the air. Over the past five games, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have combined for 10 rushing touchdowns (Kamara also has a receiving touchdown). New Orleans has been very run-heavy overall in recent weeks and have been able to pound the ball in on the ground when they get into the red zone. If the trend continues and the Saints, with an implied team total of 28.8 points, continue to run the offense through the running back position, I like my chances.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Alex Smith at 5.04 was a steal. He has a dream matchup against a Giants defense that looks like it has packed it in for the season. The Giants have allowed 26+ Draft points to opposing quarterbacks in each of the last three weeks (including struggling rookie C.J. Beathard last week). Smith quietly ranks as the 3rd highest-scoring fantasy quarterback in points per game, slightly ahead of Tom Brady and Dak Prescott. Andy Reid has a 16-2 record off of bye weeks and always has some new wrinkles built in for opposing defenses with the extra weeks to prepare. It was especially nice to pair Smith with Travis Kelce for a high-upside stack.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
This is a tough question because the draft went mostly according to my board. Zach Ertz is probably my favorite of the undrafted players. He has six touchdowns in his last six games and has scored in 5-of-6 games. Philadelphia’s opponent, the Dallas Cowboys, have given up touchdowns to the tight end in back-to-back weeks. This is a solid spot for Ertz and of all the undrafted players, he looks to have the highest touchdown expectation.
devin knotts - SLOT 5
Overview - I know Devin isn't thrilled with his draft, but it does have some promise. I love the receiver picks of Larry Fitzgerald and Sterling Shepard. Both are without a doubt, their team's primary receiving threat and could arguably combine for 20 receptions this week. A score by one or both could go a long way to propel Devin's team to where it needs to be. Perhaps the biggest decision that looms large is the selection of Blake Bortles at quarterback. The matchup against Cleveland is enticing and the way to beat the Browns is by passing the ball down field. I have a feeling the ground game could struggle this week, thus opening the door for Bortles to pass more. I'm afraid that Jacksonville will continue to run the ball, successful or not, as long as their defense can keep the Browns in check. Such a scenario is not good news for Bortles. Tevin Coleman and Melvin Gordon are capable of RB1 production this week. A strong receiving game from one or both, along with decent rushing results will definitely help Devin's chances of being competitive.
devin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I’ll be honest, this was one of the first weeks that I didn’t really have a strategy, and it worked out horribly. Most weeks, I will be the first to take either a wide receiver or a quarterback depending on how deep the tiers are at each position, but this week, I started off great with Melvin Gordon, but then panicked when I saw the lack of depth remaining at the running back position and took Tevin Coleman. Don’t get me wrong, I really like Tevin Coleman this week and think he should be heavily utilized out of the passing game and the running game with Devonta Freeman out, but the plan ultimately backfired as not only did I get the 5th and 8th running backs off the board, but I also forced to take the 6th and 8th wide receiver, and the 6th quarterback.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Blake Bortles will make or break me and in hindsight it was a really stupid pick that I wish I could do over. At the end of the day, I don’t believe that the Jaguars will be able to run against this vaunted Cleveland run defense, but taking Bortles as the 6th quarterback off the board this week was simply too aggressive as there were safer options that did not get drafted.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Melvin Gordon at 1.05 is the best value pick that I had. This is a Buffalo Bills defense that gave up 300 yards rushing to New Orleans last week and to get that running back as the 5th overall pick? That’s tremendous value as this Chargers should look to get Gordon back on track after struggling for the past few games.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Can I choose a quarterback? I would love to take Matthew Stafford against Chicago over Blake Bortles. Stafford has been absolutely tremendous over his last three games averaging 344 yards passing per game. If I can’t choose a quarterback, let’s go with Deandre Hopkins. How Hopkins was not taken just amazes me, as yes the matchup is difficult going up against Patrick Peterson, but Hopkins is averaging 15 targets per game with Savage as his quarterback and with Will Fuller out, who else are they going to throw to? Peterson is tremendous don’t get me wrong, but this is still a player in Hopkins that still had 7 receptions 55 yards and a touchdown against Jalen Ramsey who might be the best cornerback in football.
sean settle - SLOT 6
Overview - Sean is going with a Russell Wilson/Doug Baldwin stack against Atlanta, however there's some stats that project Atlanta in a positive light. The Falcons have not allowed a more than two touchdown passes by an opposing quarterback all year and they have allowed zero touchdown passes in each of the last two games (Cam Newton and Dak Prescott). This information puts a damper on Russell Wilson for me this week. Anything can happen, and Wilson thrives in the ability to improvise plays and turn them into positive gains, but I'm not loving this stack. Leonard Fournette, Jordan Howard and A.J. Green can provide strong numbers, but one stat to take note of it that Cleveland has not allowed a running back to rush for more than 66 yards this year. They have allowed 7 touchdowns to running backs, but have been stingy yardage-wise. On the positive side, Detroit has allowed at least one touchdown by a running back in 8 of their 9 games. This is good news for Jordan Howard and the Bears ground-heavy offense. A.J. Green will face a Denver team who has allowed 121 points in the last three games. If Seattle can put up big points on Atlanta, this team will have a chance to be competitive.
sean ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Having the last pick in a 6-man draft allows you to sit and watch for trends in the draft and then make your picks back to back. This is perfect for stacking a QB/WR, or in this case, making sure I had two running backs that could make an impact this week. The first 5 picks of the draft were running backs and I still managed to get my second rated back in Fournette. Jordan Howard was more of a reach than I would have wanted, but he has a home matchup against the Lions and should have ample opportunity to score. There were not many receivers that I was a big fan of, but pairing Russell Wilson with his top target in Doug Baldwin should pay off against a Redskins secondary that was lit up by the Vikings. I rounded out with the high upside AJ Green who slid in the rankings due to a matchup against the Broncos. However, the Broncos have been thrashed by the Patriots and Eagles and have not boasted the top defense they have had in the past.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
This week will come down to my Doug Baldwin and Russell Wilson stack. This answer is two-fold as it is dependent on who Russell Wilson decides to throw to and which Washington corner covers Baldwin. Josh Norman was burnt by Stefon Diggs and Bashaud Breeland could not hang with Adam Thielen, so Wilson and Baldwin could have a field day against a secondary that gave up 300 yards and 4 touchdowns to Case Keenum.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
The best value has to come with AJ Green and the final pick of the night. He has been rated as a top 3 receiver on almost every board all season long but falls this week due to the Bengals matchup with the Broncos. The Broncos defense has been great against the run but has slipped in pass coverage since letting go of TJ Ward. Look for Green to put up his normal numbers and be the steal of this draft.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
If I could take one more player it would be Jimmy Graham to go along with Russell Wilson. Graham has two touchdown catches in each of the last two games and seems to be Wilson’s go-to target in the red zone. Baldwin will see a higher volume of targets, but Graham is the man catching the touchdowns.
PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com