#Trendspotting: Week 15 - Don't Fear the Passing Game in a Blowout

Photo: USA Today Sports

Something Different This Week

This week, I've gotten rid of the "Weakest Links" section. I've done this for three reasons. A) you already know the weak links; 2) there's a huge game this week, so I wanted to give extra focus to those two teams; D) I "crowd-sourced" some material ideas, and they took me some time to dig into and make graphics.

Yes, that's an obvious Home Alone reference. It's the most wonderful time of the year.

Graphics Tutorial and Reader’s Guide

I've gotten feedback that my graphics aren't as self-explanatory and intuitive as I think they are, so I provided a guide at the beginning of a past version of this article.

• Green text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players.
• Red text is a bad matchup.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2017 season unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Follow the Targets
• Funnel Watch
• The Weakest Links
• Are You New Here?
• How Will They Score?
• New Orleans Saints (vs. New York Jets)
• New England Patriots (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
• Seattle Seahawks (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. New England Patriots)
• Philadelphia Eagles (at New York Giants)
• San Francisco 49ers (vs. Tennessee Titans)

Follow the Targets

In this section, we'll look at the worst passing defenses and dissect how they allow their fantasy production. This week, we're looking at the defenses that have allowed the most yards per game since Week 10 and how they've allocated their targets, yards, and touchdowns over the course of the whole season.

• Julio Jones almost always crushes Tampa Bay anyway. Now, they're a wide receiver matchup so tasty, they've often appeared in this column. He's an elite play, even considering his potentially inflated ownership being off the main DFS slates.
• Don't sleep on the Philadelphia passing game just because Carson Wentz isn't there anymore. More on this later.
• Carolina is allowing huge yardage via the air, their alleged top corner allows the most yards in football, and Aaron Rodgers is back. Sign me up for large-field GPP game stacks here.
• Oh look, Green Bay is here too. About those game stacks...
• Even their Week 14 date with Blaine Gabbert and a neutral game script couldn't remove Tennessee from this list. Now, they go west again to face an emerging Jimmy Garoppolo.

Funnel Watch

A "funnel" defense is one with a stout run defense but a suspect (or worse) pass defense. These units "funnel" production to the exterior and deep parts of the field (places where passing games focus) and away from the short middle (where the running game typically occurs).

• More reason to play Atlanta passing game players, Tampa Bay allows the most passing yards per game in the NFL and is tied for the highest net yards per pass attempt allowed.
• Baltimore vs. Cleveland should be interesting. Baltimore's offense is seeing a recent resurgence, but much of that has been a balanced attack with a strong run game. Cleveland allows the lowest yards per carry average in the NFL but can be exploited via the air.
• The obvious way to handle Jacksonville vs. Houston is to get as many Leonard Fournette shares as possible due to the game script suggest by the point spread, but the way to beat Houston is via the pass. And in order to get way ahead, Jacksonville's air attack will likely have contributed. Don't sleep on Blake Bortles as a cash game play this week in DFS. Also, his leading receiver, Marqise Lee is in play, as is the explosive DeDe Westbrook.
• Dallas and Oakland play each other this week. Look for that game to feature efficient passing on both sides. 

"Runnel" Defense

Sometimes, the funnel effect can happen in reverse, where a team is very good against the pass but poor against the run (hence, "runnel" defense)

• Since Week 5 (after Dalvin Cook's injury), there have been seven occasions where both Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray have seen double-digit carries and another where Murray had 16 and McKinnon "only" 9. Last week at Carolina was the only occasion that neither eclipsed 10 carries. Minnesota lost that game, so game script played a role. Against Cincinnati, both backs are in play for GPPs as a multi-touchdown ground game for Minnesota could be in the making.
• Whether or not to play Kareem Hunt is a huge question in fantasy football this week. After a month of stinkers, Hunt showed up in a big way in Week 14. Certainly, Kansas City would like to be run-based and keep the game close enough to do so, but will L.A.'s offensive momentum allow for that? The way the Chargers allow yardage suggests that Kansas City should be run-based and not abandon that too early. The 4.7 yards per rush allowed by both L.A. teams is tied for the most in the NFL.
• Houston and the New York Jets will try to run on Jacksonville and New Orleans, respectively, but will they be able to keep their games close enough to make that a game-long strategy?

Are You New Here?

Not all trends last for an entire season. And the best fantasy owners can spot trends as they develop. So this section will discuss newly-developing trends.

Getting Beaten by the Best

Last week, we started off this section with these exact words:

After spending most of the season as a pass defense to avoid, Baltimore has sprung some leaks lately. Note how WR1s (or facsimiles thereof) have fared against them recently:

This week, they still apply, and we have Antonio Brown's huge game on Sunday night to add to last week's chart.